YPF MUESTRA EL CAMINO

 

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COMIENZA EL RECUPERARSE LA INDUSTRIA CÁRNICA

La semana comenzó con los ecos de las elecciones en Brasil. Parece que los mercados comienzan a sobredimensionar hechos que a priori parecían irreversibles. En la plaza local se advirtió un paso al costado de la demanda, lo que fue ostensible en el panel general, quedando los precios en niveles interesantes. Quizás la peor noticia era el progresivo desinterés en las acciones de YPF, que hasta hace un par de semanas negociaba tres veces lo que operó en algunas ruedas. A partir del pasado jueves se notó una importante mejoría en el papel que se asocia a la Ley de Hidrocarburos. Otro hecho que era irreversible.

La demanda mundial de carnes rojas es cada vez mayor. No solo por el crecimiento demográfico sino fundamentalmente por la incorporación a la clase media de millones de habitantes del sudeste asiático. (China, Indonesia, Corea). Por el contrario, la oferta de carnes está estancada. El cambio climático disminuye las pasturas. El Mercosur puede abastecer la demanda insatisfecha. Uruguay y Paraguay entraron en mesetas de producción. La Argentina es el país llamado a crecer ya que cuenta con tierras y maíz suficiente. El stock de vacunos comienza a recuperarse, aun con las desventajas del coyuntural sesgo anti exportador. Quickfood es uno de los principales frigoríficos exportadores y participa activamente dentro de la Cuota Hilton. Para el abastecimiento local tiene su emblemática marca Paty. Parece que hay mucho para ganar en una empresa que soportó las peores adversidades. Y en esta línea de pensamiento, llama la atención la fuerte baja de Inversora Juramento, que también es una empresa que apuesta fuertemente a la producción cárnea. Ambas acciones no son para “entrar y salir” ya que están en el panel general. Son para inversores genuinos.

Héctor Tavares, Clarín, IECO, 2.11.2014

 

 

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