YA ES PALPABLE LA POLITICA DE ACUMULACION -la nota de la semana-

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Dentro del panorama previsto para 2015 con un comportamiento errático para la Bolsa, sensibilizada por los distintos acontecimientos  que suceden.. y sucederán en un año electoral, el fondo es muy positivo con incremento de volumen, estimulado por la presentación de buenos balances al 31.12.14 y la posibilidad de un futuro cambio de gobierno… y de políticas económicas. Con relación a los resultados se debe prestar atención a las aclaraciones de ALUAR respecto a la incidencia de la inflación en los mismos, no reconociéndose el Ajuste correspondiente, exponiéndose las cifras en valores históricos. De todas formas la mayoría fueron ponderables.

En sentido inverso merecen destacarse resultados no satisfactorios afectados por situaciones extraordinarias. Tal el caso de PESA que en 9 meses ganaba 1500 mill con capital de 2019 mill y terminó el Ejercicio con una utilidad de tan solo 458 millones, contra 779 millones de 2013.

La razón tiene que ver con la baja del precio del petróleo. En efecto, en el 4º trimestre se revaluaron a su probable valor de realización las inversiones en Venezuela, Ecuador y Bolivia produciéndose una perdida de 1604 millones compensándose en parte por un recupero de Impuesto a las ganancias por 424 millones. Se trató de una situación de tipo extraordinario  que difícilmente se repita y por el contrario puede transformarse en positiva de recuperarse el precio del petróleo. En cuanto a lo operativo, las ventas subieron un 35% y la  utilidad bruta un 53%. Se incrementaron la utilidad operativa en “Refinación y Distribución”, en “Petroquímica” y en “Gas y Energía”, perdiendo en “Exploración y Perforación” por los cargos adicionales señalados. La pregunta que se debe hacer es ¿Cuánto cotizaría de no haber sido por los cargos extraordinarios? Lo cierto es que con este blanqueo patrimonial y con la nueva y rigurosa conducción del grupo, se producirá una inflexión positiva en la confianza sobre su gestión. En el inmediato la atención se centrara en la decisión que tomara la Asamblea Del 19 de marzo respecto al destino a dar a la  Reserva para futuros dividendos que al 31.12.14 asciende a 1159 millones.-

Tal como se viene señalando los Bancos continúan con sus buenos Balances a pesar que sus negociaciones específicas (créditos) brillan por su ausencia.

Milagros de contabilidad creativa, sin ajuste por Inflación, y aparición de nuevos negocios más rentables. BANCO PATAGONIA se destaca con una distribución de 142% en efectivo. Y Banco Santander Río quedó muy “desarbitrado” frente a sus colegas, vaya a saber cual es la estrategia de los que venden con una estrategia que “no es para arriba”. Similar panorama, salvando las distancias, se observa en Semino, con operadores que evidentemente tratan de desalentar a nuevos inversores. Esta acción debe el 17% en acciones, próximo a pagarse. Y la historia dice que en general y dado su bajo precio nominal, una vez que se produzca, seguramente “se lo tragará” en su cotización.

Héctor Tavares

 

3.390 comentarios

  1. luis

    Maestro…nuevamente, que haríamos sin usted.
    Lo que es Dic ’15 y Dic ’16, van a ser tiempos muy buenos para la bolsa en gral?
    Este año tenemos elecciones acá en Arg. Y el año que viene en EEUU, lo ve usted con con mucha influencia positiva en el mercado a estos dos acontecimientos o son 2 elecciones más y nada más que eso ?

    Por mi parte como ya habrá visto en mis inquietudes…voy con Brio, Bpat, Ceco2, Jmin, Agro y Semi.

    Todo su aporte y conocimiento es válido Maestro.

    Saludos.

  2. Mat

    Héctor: Cargué AGRO en 1,85 teniendo en cuenta su visión del papel. La veo claramente rezagada, máxime si la tendencia del mercado es acumular. Saludos!

  3. Jose

    Hola con respecto a los bancos, queria consultarle por santander que aparentemente esta bastante desarbitrado a pesar de tener poco volumen y repsol en las petroleras. Estas empresas “residuales” tienen futuro?

  4. Mariano

    Hector, genial su aporte. Sirven mucho sus resumenes diarios.
    Como ve a Pamp y Transs.
    abz y buen fin de semana.

  5. Tavares
    Author

    José:Si se refiere a Santander Río, concuerdo con Ud y así lo refleja la nota de la semana. A Santander “a secas” no la sigo mucho pero me preocupa el movimiento política nuevo de España que precisamente no simpatiza con los bancos. Lo mismo para Repsoi, correlacionada con el precio del petróleo.
    Pampa y Transener las veo por encima del Merval, sin exageraciones.

  6. htavares

    Siderar afectado en parte por tipo de cambio y recesión. La fuerte baja automotriz también lo afecta. Saludos

  7. Jose

    Gracias Hector por su respuesta. Estuve analizando los valores libro y un at del ultimo año de empresas con poco volumen. Repsol y santander (a secas) pintan bien, aunque es interesante el punto de la variable politica en españa. Gracias nuevamente por tomarse el tiempo de contestar.

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