VUELVE EL DOLAR

 

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Después de dos meses de retroceso, el dólar en la bolsa de valores comenzó nuevamente a subir. Un repaso de los distintos tipos de dólar en Argentina.

Las medidas contractivas que el Gobierno dispuso en enero tenían un claro objetivo: frenar la presión sobre el dólar. La devaluación oficial del peso, las subas de tasas de interés y la liberación parcial del cepo cambiario surtieron su efecto, golpeando la demanda tanto del dólar “blue” como la del “contado con liquidación”. Por un lado, al liberar la compra de dólares se frena parcialmente la presión especulativa y, por el otro lado, contrayendo el crédito y encareciendo la divisa se dificulta acceder al dólar. Las medidas surtieron efecto ya que desde fines de enero, con un dólar “blue” y “contado” aproximados de $ 12,50 y $ 12, tres meses después se termina abril con valores de $ 10,50 y $ 10 respectivamente.

El dólar “contado con liquidación” había nacido de la vieja prohibición de adquirir más de U$S 2 millones por mes. Durante el 2010 y el 2011 principalmente, aquellos que querían enviar dólares al exterior por cifras superiores (principalmente filiales locales de empresas extranjeras) podían adquirir localmente y con pesos, títulos que se negociaran en el exterior y luego venderlos en plazas extranjeras. Al cociente entre el precio local en pesos de un título y su precio en dólares en el exterior se le llamó “contado con liquidación”. Cuanto mayor era la demanda de esta operatoria, más subía el dólar “contado con liqui”.

Con el tiempo, y especialmente después del cepo cambiario que arrancó en octubre 2011, el “contado con liqui” fue el sinónimo del dólar libre para el mercado financiero. Otra cotización de referencia, también adquirible por operatorias bursátiles, es el llamado “dólar MEP” o “dólar bolsa”, que consiste en vender títulos -como el Boden 2015 o Bonar X- contra dólares en una caja de ahorros local. Nuevamente, el cociente entre el precio local en pesos (RO15) y el precio local en dólares (RO15D) da una cotización de referencia de la moneda norteamericana. Al igual que el “contado con liqui”, se trata de una operatoria legal, por lo que también mueve volúmenes más importantes que el dólar “blue”.

Luego de las medidas de enero el mercado “compró” la idea de un dólar planchado hasta el fin de la cosecha de soja. Sin embargo, la aceleración de la inflación del primer trimestre, el crecimiento del déficit fiscal y el desempeño inferior a lo esperado de las reservas del Banco Central comenzaron a adelantar las expectativas devaluatorias. Por lo pronto, la devaluación del 20% de un dólar ya quedó rezagada nuevamente luego de una inflación oficial del 10% en tan sólo un trimestre. Un golpe de suerte fue la fuerte suba que experimentó la soja en estos meses, que mitigó en parte este efecto en la competitividad de la principal exportación.

El gobierno debe manejar cuidadosamente la situación para evitar una nueva disparada del dólar durante el segundo semestre, objetivo que lograría con financiamiento externo y reducción del déficit fiscal para controlar la inflación. Por ello, las inversiones en títulos en dólares continúan siendo la principal cobertura, destacando los de la Provincia de Buenos Aires que tienen legislación extranjera y son ajenas (al menos directamente) al conflicto legal con los “holdouts”.

Eduardo Cardenal, nota en IECO, Clarín del 4.5.2014

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