USANDO EL FRENO DE MANOS

04-05-2015-por-que-es-importante-usar-el-freno-de-mano
Ya la semana pasada la agencia PriceStats comenzaba a marcar un salto
inflacionario en los precios a productos comercializados por internet
(supermercados, electrodomésticos, etc), superando el 2,4% para mediados de
septiembre. Siendo la inflación el principal objetivo de las nuevas
autoridades del Banco Central, decidieron mantener la tasa de Lebac a 35
días, que posiblemente se vea sin cambios al menos por 3 licitaciones.
Seguramente los precios no presenten un buen número para septiembre
(exceptuando el efecto del fallo de la Corte Suprema que aún resta computar
parcialmente), y eso que el Banco Central apunta los cañones mes a mes
contra las expectativas inflacionarias. Ya para la segunda quincena de
octubre se tendrá información sobre la inflación del mes que viene, y será
un nuevo cantar para la entidad.

La baja de la tasa de interés tuvo un fuerte correlato en los últimos meses
con la suba del mercado accionario, especialmente la última semana. A nivel
técnico, un interés más bajo implica un mayor valor presente cuando se
descuentan flujos futuros de dividendos. Pero la explicación más
“callejera” es sencillamente que *los inversores, acostumbrados a altos
rendimientos, buscan mantenerlos volcándose a las acciones*. Durante el mes
de julio especialmente *las estrellas estuvieron en el panel general*,
destacándose por encima del resto la constructora Holcim (ex Juan Minetti)
que no sólo vio su valor incrementarse sino también el volumen de
operaciones que la llevará incluso al panel líder en el próximo trimestre.

De las últimas jornadas *las mayores subas estuvieron vinculadas al sector
bancario*. Del lado petrolero también se vieron interesantes ganancias,
pero estas acciones están íntimamente relacionadas con el valor
internacional del crudo (esta semana subió inesperadamente tras una reunión
de la OPEP donde se informó se iba a recortar la producción) como YPF,
Petrobrás Brasil (APBR) y Tenaris (TS). Se podría decir que son mucho más
afectadas por el contexto mundial que el resto de los papeles.

Otras acciones que cobran protagonismo en la Bolsa son las que responden a
los pilares sobre los que se apoyó el macrismo ni bien tomó el poder. El
nuevo oficialismo parece apostar a profundizar la “commoditización” de las
riquezas naturales mediante la expansión del extractivismo. Es así que las
firmas ligadas a los agronegocios (como Agrometal, Morixe, entre otras)
consolidaron esta semana su buen andar.

*Más emisiones* (subt.)

Las otras novedades de la semana vinieron de la mano de la nueva emisión de
títulos del Tesoro Nacional y el repunte de la cotización de la divisa
norteamericana. Respecto del primero, *la colocación de bonos “largos” a
tasa fija en pesos viene siendo una sugerencia de inversores extranjeros*,
ya que éstos pueden contratar seguros de cambio y los instrumentos con tasa
fija les resulta un calce perfecto. Por eso se explican las tasas tan
justas con las expectativas de inflación, en un mundo donde colocar dinero
de corto plazo para sacar un interés es una tarea desafiante. Hasta ahora,
el menú de bonos en pesos a plazos largos siempre tuvo algún tipo de
ajuste, sea inflacionario (bonos con CER) o bien variables (bonos Badlar),
pero los instrumentos a tasa fija les permiten hilar más fino en los
cálculos. Por ello se ven tasas de licitación tan exiguas en estos bonos,
comprensible en un contexto internacional donde invertir liquidez a tasas
del 2% es una odisea.

Por otro lado, *la suba del dólar tiene una explicación principalmente
estacional*, ayudado por el contexto de tasas descendientes. De todas
maneras, dentro del mercado se esperaba un repunte en algún momento hasta
fin de año, ya que el atraso que venía llevando era manifiesto. Los grandes
inversores igualmente no se desesperan por dolarizar, ya que aún se
especula que a mediano plazo la tasa de interés en pesos siga siendo más
rentable que la moneda norteamericana. Con un Banco Central preocupado por
reducir el nivel inflacionario, que las tasas de interés no compensen la
devaluación del peso es un escenario improbable.

Distinto es el caso para los bonos en dólares, los que no solamente están
denominados en moneda extranjera sino que se paga un interés adicional.
Independientemente de ello, estos títulos se mueven por distintos carriles
debido a que los plazos son muy superiores a las inversiones en pesos y
están inmersos en un contexto internacional de tasas ridículamente bajas.
Los rumores de suba por parte de la Reserva Federal difícilmente se
trasladen a plazos largos, y menos aún en magnitudes representativas. Si
bien traería ruido en el corto plazo, las consecuencias reales sobre las
tasas mundiales distarían de ser relevantes (similar a lo que fue el efecto
Brexit). *Los inversores aún pueden obtener importantes ganancias de
capital para el 2017 con los bonos más largos* como el PARY, el DICY o el
BPLD (Provincia de Buenos Aires) si las proyecciones se cumplen y Argentina
entra en un año de crecimiento con inflación reduciéndose a paso acelerado

Más conservadoramente, está la posibilidad de un *retorno no despreciable
del 10% anual en dólares con el AY24*, bajo el mismo escenario del caso
anterior. La ventaja es que al ser un bono más corto y con un rendimiento
alto (5% anual), las probabilidades de una mala inversión son bajas. De
aquí a un año, el bono tendría que presentar un rendimiento del 6,5% anual
para no haber perdido dinero, en un contexto donde no solamente no se
espera que el riesgo país aumente sino que se prevé disminuya hasta
acercarse a los pares de la región. Bajo este último supuesto, el
rendimiento directo del 10% en un año es más que alcanzable.
Eduardo Cardenal, Clarìn, IECO,2.10.2016

3.111 comentarios

  1. Rodolfo

    Sr, Tavares como ve a Morixe?, tengo un pequeño porcentaje invertido desde noviembre de 2015 y no ha aumentado su cotización desde entonces, a diferencia de Semino y Molinos que si lo han hecho. Desde ya muchas gracias.

  2. Zeque

    Maestro, la sigue viendo atrasada a MOLI?

    He leído varios análisis técnicos y foros de análisis fundamental en donde se discute el presente y futuro de este papel y todos lo ven con un potencial de suba cercano al 30% de acá a fin de año.

    Podría darme su parecer?

  3. Javier Aguirre

    Lo de los terrenos de la ciudad de Bs Aires no esta muy facil, va a llevar mas tiempo que lo que uno quisiera, ojo¡¡

  4. En vez de haber metido a Celu, Carb y Psur al panel lider, tendrian q haber metido a Long, Grim, Garo, Brio, empresas q ganan y que reparten dividendos, empresas con fundamentos contables, y no LUDICOS.

  5. Tavares
    Author

    Rodolfo: No es un papel de mis preferidos
    Zeque: Si, para mi está atrasada respecto a otros papeles
    Barandista: Es por lo operado. En fin…

  6. micheletti carlos

    Buen dia, cronista de hoy… Aluar invertira 600 millones de dolares, para ser proveedor de energia….esta atrasadisima, 10 por ciento abajo en 2016….sera la accion de octubre y del trimestre.

  7. MB los comentarios de todos . Ayer escuche en canal Metro a la noche varios temas del mercado.

    Y hubo uno que me dio risa de un especialista : puro pensamiento mágico. El que lo quiera comprar que lo compre, no se de donde salio y si alguno me lo explica.

    Octubre siempre malo para la bolsa comento entre líneas..

    Disculpen y no es tirar palidas, lo escuche anoche de un especialista del programa de zuchovichi en Metro.

    Sds Carlos

    • Daniel

      Si, sobre todo octubre del año pasado no??…

      algunos dicen cada cosa…

      no pueden estandarizar algo que depende de muchas variables…

  8. javier

    Maestro quiero entrar en Costanera, espero la toma de ganancias antes de entrar? a q precio sería recomenble meterme?

  9. ELIO

    Creo que se viene un mes de recuperación para PATY con el anuncio de suscripción de acciones para sanear el patrimonio neto para que vuelva a ser positivo, si bien las asambleas son para el 31 de octubre creo que ya esta la expectativa volando para que sea uno de los papeles del mes. Tengo algo pero voy a sumar fichas, creo que un 30% de recuperación no es descabellado esperar en poco tiempo.

      • ELIO

        Creo que sera el mes del campo octubre, septiembre fue de la energía, si bien esta tambien seguira up, lastima los drivers externos que pueden arruinar el asado, pero sino este trimestre sera espectacular en la bolsa argentina. Elecciones de EEUU, tema Deustche Bank , y a fin de año el tema de aumento de las tasas por la FED espero no arruinen la fiesta.

  10. ALB

    A esto me refería por ej con CADO o cuialquiera de las momias. P que perder tiempo? En cambio ahora que se empezó a mover c volúmen SI , ahora SI.

  11. Celes

    UNA ENCUESTA QUE ANDA DANDO VUELTAS

    Estos son los papeles que me parecen más atractivos, vota el que te guste más. $CTIO $SAMI $MOLI $SEMI

    45%$CTIO
    19%$SAMI
    12%$MOLI
    24%$SEMI

    • Marcos

      MOLI porque tiene ROE alto, esta depreciado, esta bajando deuda, le destrabaron lo de biodisel y es ideal para largo plazo

    • ELIO

      Barandista, si lo decis por la suscripción de PATY, creo que es confundir peras con manzanas, porque una cosa es MORI, y otra PATY con la espalda de BRF como controlante y en definitiva es quien propone la capitalización de créditos comerciales por hasta un monto de 362 M, revirtiendo la situación patrimonial actual y con el fin de encarar el potencial que despierta para el sector ganadero y sus expectativas de crecimiento y exportación.
      Es como comparar COCA COLA con MANAOS, sin desmerecer a este ultimo que es un capo como creció, pero me refiero a que BRF es la coca de las alimenticias en la región, difícil que no se salga con la suya y mas considerando una marca tan emblemática como PATY, 99.99% de probabilidades de éxito.
      Es una opinión personal.

      • ELIO

        Hasta la Coca sabe en algún lugar también le apretara el zapato, por algo viene invirtiendo mucho en bebidas saludables comprando ADES leche de soja o endulzando con stevia en lugar de azúcar que es tan perjudicial para la salud. Pero una cosa es seguro faltan varios siglos para que se deje de consumir hamburguesas y carne vacuna y mas en estos lados.

  12. Lamentablemente de la suscripcion de PETROLERA PAMPA(Negocio Unico y sin Competencias) nos dimo cuenta tarde.
    Las suscripciones CUANDO SON PARA ENJUGAR O CUBRIR DEUDAS, NO SIRVEN , NI ACA, NI EN NINGUN LADO.
    LA REALIDAD NO MIENTE.
    EN ESTOS DIAS, CELULOSA TUBO Q DECLARAR DESIERTO UN LANZAMIENTO DE BONOS PARA PAGAR DEUDAS,”””””””POR FALTA DE INTERESADOS””””””””””

  13. Lamentablemente el Grupo BRF Paty en Argentina, NO TIENE HACIENDA. como lo dice El Maestro Tavares.
    A Paty le iba bien cuando tenia ganado propio, hace varios anos atras, CDO TENIA CUOTA HILTON, hace varios anos atras cdo la mayoria accionaria la tenia la Familia Baumele………………

  14. Histórico

    Barandista, la última suscripción de MORIXE fue a 1,75 fíjate a qué precio se negoció inmediatamente después de la suscripción.
    Fue un gran negocio.

  15. Histórico

    Coincido con Barandista respecto a PATY.
    Sus balances son horribles y no tiene buenos fundamentos que justifiquen su actual precio.

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  18. Zune and iPod: Most people examine the Zune in the direction of the Contact, yet following viewing how thin and shockingly very little and light-weight it is, I try out it to be a alternatively exclusive hybrid that combines characteristics of the two the Touch and the Nano. It truly is rather vibrant and attractive OLED display screen is a little bit lesser than the touch screen, still the player alone feels Really a little bit scaled-down and lighter. It weighs above 2/3 as significantly, and is appreciably smaller sized in width and height, despite the fact that remaining accurately a hair thicker.

  19. The Zune concentrates on staying a Moveable Media Player. Not a world-wide-web browser. Not a activity machine. Probably within the potential it will do even better in just all those areas, still for previously it is a very good path toward arrange and hear to your new music and movies, and is devoid of peer in that regard. The iPod’s positive aspects are its internet viewing and apps. If those solid far more powerful, potentially it is your excellent choice.

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  22. Zune and iPod: Maximum human beings examine the Zune towards the Touch, nonetheless after observing how slender and amazingly very low and gentle it is, I attempt it in the direction of be a pretty special hybrid that combines traits of each the Contact and the Nano. It is amazingly vibrant and gorgeous OLED exhibit is a bit more compact than the touch screen, nonetheless the participant itself feels Extremely a little bit more compact and lighter. It weighs concerning 2/3 as a lot, and is substantially scaled-down inside of width and top, though staying simply just a hair thicker.

  23. The Zune concentrates on staying a Transportable Media Player. Not a world-wide-web browser. Not a video game machine. Probably within just the future it will do even greater inside of people components, yet for now it truly is a Wonderful path in the direction of organize and hear toward your music and motion pictures, and is with out peer within that respect. The iPod’s positive aspects are its website viewing and programs. If individuals strong added persuasive, quite possibly it is your most straightforward choice.

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  29. Apple now contains Rhapsody as an app, which is a Terrific commence, yet it is now hampered through the incapability to retailer locally upon your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps little bit rate. If this improvements, then it will somewhat negate this comfort for the Zune, yet the 10 new music for every month will still be a significant as well as inside of Zune Pass’ favor.

  30. Arms down, Apple’s application retail store wins by a mile. It can be a massive determination of all sorts of apps vs a rather disappointed final decision of a handful for Zune. Microsoft is made up of programs, particularly in the realm of online games, nonetheless I am not sure I’d want in the direction of bet upon the upcoming if this portion is sizeable in the direction of yourself. The iPod is a significantly superior alternative inside that scenario.

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  57. Apple previously has Rhapsody as an app, which is a excellent commence, yet it is already hampered via the incapacity towards retailer domestically upon your iPod, and includes a dismal 64kbps bit price. If this modifications, then it will relatively negate this usefulness for the Zune, nevertheless the 10 tunes for every month will continue to be a large furthermore within just Zune Pass’ choose.

  58. The fresh Zune browser is surprisingly optimistic, nonetheless not as positive as the iPod’s. It functions effectively, nevertheless is just not as prompt as Safari, and is made up of a clunkier interface. If oneself at times method on using the website browser that’s not an issue, nevertheless if you might be planning to study the world wide web alot in opposition to your PMP then the iPod’s larger sized show and far better browser may possibly be sizeable.

  59. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, nevertheless as soon as observing how slender and remarkably very low and gentle it is, I consider it in the direction of be a rather distinctive hybrid that combines attributes of both the Touch and the Nano. It is Pretty vibrant and attractive OLED show is slightly more compact than the touch screen, nonetheless the player itself feels Extremely a little bit scaled-down and lighter. It weighs more than 2/3 as considerably, and is substantially lesser in width and height, although getting particularly a hair thicker.

  60. The Zune concentrates upon becoming a Moveable Media Player. Not a website browser. Not a activity machine. Possibly in the potential it will do even superior inside those people areas, but for at the moment it can be a Great way in direction of set up and listen in the direction of your tunes and films, and is with no peer within just that respect. The iPod’s strengths are its world wide web going to and purposes. If these stable further more powerful, maybe it is your best final decision.

  61. If you’re still upon the fence: seize your favorite earphones, brain down in the direction of a Ideal Acquire and check with in direction of plug them into a Zune then an iPod and look at which a person sounds improved towards by yourself, and which interface creates you smile more. Then you will recognize which is specifically for by yourself.

  62. Zune and iPod: Optimum These assess the Zune toward the Contact, nevertheless following viewing how slender and amazingly very little and mild it is, I check out it in direction of be a fairly distinctive hybrid that combines properties of both the Touch and the Nano. It truly is extremely colorful and attractive OLED display screen is marginally lesser than the contact screen, yet the player alone feels Incredibly a bit scaled-down and lighter. It weighs pertaining to 2/3 as much, and is drastically smaller within width and peak, whilst getting accurately a hair thicker.

  63. In between me and my partner we have owned extra MP3 avid gamers around the a long time than I can rely, which includes Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etcetera. But, the final few yrs I have solved down in the direction of 1 line of players. Why? Considering that I was happy towards take a look at how well-designed and pleasurable toward employ the underappreciated (and extensively mocked) Zunes are.

  64. Zune and iPod: Optimum people in america assess the Zune to the Touch, nonetheless when viewing how skinny and astonishingly tiny and light it is, I get it in the direction of be a really special hybrid that combines features of each the Touch and the Nano. It is really incredibly colorful and beautiful OLED display screen is somewhat smaller than the contact screen, however the participant itself feels rather a little bit more compact and lighter. It weighs in excess of 2/3 as a lot, and is noticeably scaled-down within width and height, though currently being merely a hair thicker.

  65. Palms down, Apple’s app keep wins by way of a mile. It really is a substantial final decision of all types of purposes vs a in its place not happy preference of a handful for Zune. Microsoft includes courses, particularly within the realm of video games, nonetheless I’m not confident I would have to have toward bet on the long term if this feature is critical toward by yourself. The iPod is a significantly greater selection in that case.

  66. I will devices this evaluate in direction of 2 patterns of These: present-day Zune householders who are thinking about an improve, and Those striving in the direction of choose amongst a Zune and an iPod. (There are other avid gamers great importance taking into consideration out there, including the Sony Walkman X, but I assume this presents your self enough information and facts to generate an aware conclusion of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

  67. Sorry for the massive overview, nonetheless I’m definitely loving the fresh new Zune, and anticipate this, as perfectly as the Terrific reviews some other These comprise written, will assist you make your mind up if it’s the specifically decision for you.

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