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El circuito legal va llegando a su fin. El pasado lunes la Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos informó que no aceptó tratar la apelación argentina. Por lo tanto, la pelota volvió al juez Thomas Griesa, que busca que Argentina salde su deuda con los fondos buitre. El Gobierno argentino se mostró oficialmente reacio a cumplir la orden judicial y pagarles, aunque evitó decir que no lo iban a hacer porque eso agravaría más las cosas.

Sin embargo, el problema para el Gobierno está en que el juez ordenó al Banco de Nueva York (BoNY) bloquear los pagos de los bonos del canje (con legislación Nueva York) si Argentina simultáneamente no les paga a los fondos buitre. Ergo, entraría en un nuevo default.

El Gobierno tiene actualmente dos opciones: puede negociar con los fondos por el monto adeudado o puede entrar en default (incumplimiento). En su discurso del jueves, el ministro Axel Kicillof remarcó la segunda postura pero manteniendo la primera. Vale decir que pareciera querer ir a una negociación con la amenaza de entrar en default para tratar de obtener algunas concesiones.

Es importante remarcar que, a pesar de que el fallo parezca sombrío, da la posibilidad de cerrar definitivamente el capítulo del default del 2001. Si se llega a un acuerdo razonable a pesar de no obtener quitas de capital, Argentina podría entrar nuevamente en los mercados internacionales habiendo cerrado todos sus frentes externos, y conseguir ahorros importantísimos en intereses de deuda. Incluso podría refinanciar deudas a tasas inferiores a las vigentes. Es decir, a pesar de que se pague por la derrota judicial, se ahorrarían importantes sumas de dinero en materia de carga financiera de deuda nueva.

En lo que a bonos respecta, el próximo 30 de junio el gobierno debe pagar US$900 millones por los títulos Discount del canje, de los cuales US$230 millones corresponden a DICY y DIY0, pagaderos en Nueva York.

Si el Gobierno no llega a un acuerdo ni logra que Griesa imponga un nuevo “stay”, estos títulos entrarían en default (no inmediatamente porque hay 30 días de plazo) junto con todos los otros títulos bajo ley Nueva York (PARY, PAY0, GJ17, TVPY y TVY0). El resto de los títulos públicos no tendrían impedimentos legales en percibir las cobranzas normalmente, lo cual no quiere decir que no se vean afectados los precios en un escenario de estas características.

Eduardo Cardenal, IECO, Clarín, 22.06.2014

Bonos Destacado Home FOTOS HOME

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