Una Bolsa para adivinos -la nota de la semana-

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Es imposible hacer futurología bursátil ante un tablero complicado y cambiante como el que se nos ofrece actualmente. Un tema sólo para adivinos. No obstante, se pueden realizar hipótesis. El tema GRECIA, aun irresuelto, no es menor pero no tiene la gravedad de otros “defaults” porque los mayores acreedores son instituciones públicas y no privadas, por lo que no se esperan “corridas bancarias”. De todas formas, todavía hay esperanzas de acuerdos razonables. Nuestro mercado es especial. Hasta las elecciones de Octubre no se  esperan cambios trascendentes por lo que prevalecerá el retraso cambiario y la elevada emisión que con el aguinaldo y paritarias estimularan el consumo interno. Las empresas que destinan sus productos al mercado interno gozarán de un “veranito” en invierno. La incógnita ya no es tanto el resultado eleccionario, sino la urgencia y profundidad con  que los nuevos gobernantes produzcan los ajustes, cambios aggiorrnamiento, o como quieran llamarlo para normalizar los indicadores económicos. Es que no se puede convivir mucho tiempo más  con retraso cambiario, elevada emisión y su correlativa inflación, falta de financiación externa salvo extraños acuerdos coyunturales, cepo cambiario, retenciones a la exportación fuera de contexto, trabas a las importaciones, presión impositiva y cargas sociales agobiantes, subvenciones indiscriminadas, impuesto a las ganancias sin ajuste por inflación, impedimento para remisión de utilidades al exterior, falta de estimulo a la inversión productiva, etc etc, etc .

No se puede pretender que los candidatos presidenciales se suiciden exponiendo anticipadamente en detalle sus próximas decisiones, en una razonable preservación de votantes, pero ya alguien dijo “la única verdad es la realidad”. Y la realidad es que en la etapa “post eleccionaria” el “maquillaje” actual es impracticable. Por lo tanto las proposiciones de  “continuidad” o “cambio”, deberán convertirse en “continuidad con correcciones” o “cambio” (total o parcial). La profundización de la continuidad pareciera ser un imposible. Se estima que en esa nueva etapa se sentirán mas cómodas las exportadoras, las que tienen inversiones en el exterior y las de servicios públicos que deberán recuperar el genuino equilibrio de su ecuación económica y financiera. En el “veranito” de las 12 cuotas en un contexto inflacionario, de parabienes Longvie, Grimoldi, Garovaglio, Colorín, Ferrum, etc. También andarán muy bien las constructoras de obras públicas especialmente, como Dycasa y Caputo. Y no olvidar a Holcim (ex J.Minetti).

Héctor Tavares

3.910 comentarios

  1. Muy buen análisis de la situación actual del mercado, Héctor.
    Le agregaría un dato muy importante: hoy el gobierno amplió el cupo de importaciones en alrededor de un 30% y a las empresas de electrónica de Tierra del Fuego el cupo aumentó de U$S 233 millones mensuales a 300 millones, lo cual va a repercutir muy favorablemente en MIRGOR que venía con resultados negativos por esa limitación a su producción. Se espera un segundo semestre muy bueno con reversión total de las pérdidas y el regreso a importantes ganancias. Hoy ya se notó en su plaza donde revirtió el signo negativo con el que venía operando a uno positivo del 2,59% con un interesante volumen negociado.

  2. torlika

    Es una pena que aca tambien los manijeros de ese papel hagan base. Todavia son recordados por muchos inversores los estragos causados por un nick: oscarcito/anita (¿quien sería?)en 2008 que desde un popular foro alentaba la compra. Desaparecido ese nick comenzo otro que paso por varios MT, maranot, Celes y otros, hoy como la repercusion de aquel foro cayo demasiado arrancan por otros lugares frecuentados por inversores. Alerta a la hora de invertir. No crean en los peces de colores que prometen y lean el archivo de ese foro que todos saben cual es, vean como manijean en la previa a la llegada de los balances, como siempre tiene la posta de los numeros y como el volumen de venta se agranda dias antes, con los numeros en la mano, desaperecen por un tiempo del foro hasta que creen que se olvidaron de ellos y vuelven otra vez a ecitar su clasico canto.

  3. Martin

    Hablando de adivinar, me arriesgo con un pronostico diferente sobre Grecia. La deuda griega es impagable, la propuesta electoral de Alexis Tsipras fue basicamente salir del euro y no hacer ningun ajuste…la gente mal o bien voto eso y hacer los ajustes que le piden (jubilaciones, sueldos y suba de impuestos entre otros) podria provocar un estallido social en Grecia. Pais deficitario y sin animo de hacer ajuste alguno, no puede mantener el euro, que no es mas que una convertibilidad como tuvimos aca. Por otro lado asi Grecia tampoco es competitiva y sin crecimiento economico y sin ajustes, es imposible pagar a los acreedores.

    Nadie quiere poner fin a la novela. Se esta “comprando tiempo” y tratando de que el golpe sea mas suave y aca es donde no coincido del todo con la nota. Porque hay bancos (sobre todo el mas grande de Alemania), que podria caer y cuando cae un gigante de esos, hace ruido en todos los mercados, incluido el nuestro. En mi opinion hay un solo final, la unica duda es cuanto tiempo podran estirar la agonia (capaz 1 año o 2, pero el final es 1 solo). Para mi seria un Default grave……que provocaria un terremoto financiero en los bancos de la zona euro (con alguno quebrado) y dejaria al proyecto euro como un fracaso. Creo que es esto, lo que esta en juego y justamente lo que se quiere evitar.

    Pero al fin y al cabo Alemania y Francia seguiran siendo 2 potencias, que no necesitan de Grecia para serlo. Y de yapa se evitarian, en un futuro no muy lejano tener que salvar a España que les saldria bastante mas caro que Grecia. En algun momento se puede dar vuelta la torta y quizas empiece a hacer ruido este razonamiento

    En cuanto a Grecia, seguira en el mismo lugar fisico que esta ahora, aunque tal ves ya no se llamaria zona euro y con una profunda devaluacion sus productos seran baratos y se los van a comprar, podria emitir moneda a 4 manos y generar una riqueza ficticia para hacer un gobierno bien populista, tal cual fue la idea original de Alexis Tsipras.

    No veo el interes de Grecia en arreglar, el tiempo dira………momentos dificiles para el inversor local, no alcanza con los problemas nuestros, que no son pocos, sino que hay que analizar problemas externos que nos podrian dar un golpe mas. Tiempos dificiles, pero todo pasa

  4. lemagiscien

    En tren de adivinar, mi pronóstico de corto es una brisa grata la semana entrante hacia las elecciones en CABA y Córdoba que aseguran victorias y festejos antik lo que es psicológicamente estimulante para el inversor bursátil.
    PAMP, GGAL, COME.
    Luego Dios dirá, pero en la cartera de la dama y en el bolsillo del caballero no puede dejar de estar SAMI.

  5. observador

    Recomiendan SAMI. Gente que no sabe el drama de las economias regionales por bajo valor del dolar. No alentemos compras aun desde el anonimato de un sitio web.

  6. ALB

    che , a interiorizarse aunque sea un poquito de lo que se habla, please ,… que yo gané mucho con SAMI y hace rato que se viene hablando del problema delas economías regionales….!!!???”#$$ Y Sudáfrica y Uruguay ?

    Tanto va el cántaro a la fuente que alguna le van a pegar . Es fácil decir siempre que todo está mal una y otra vez alguna van a acertar juaz … mientras tanto SAMI CEPU PATAGONIA han dado mas de 300 % de ganancia en muy poco tiempo , para que quede claro lo que dije porque el fanatismo a veces no nos deja ver : Empieza con un 3 (tres) seguido de 2( ceros) o sea 0 0 o sea trescientos o sea 300 o mejor dicho mas de 3 y 4 veces la inversión inicial en muy poco tiempo. Espectacular . A estudiar , A revisar nros -

    SAMI antes del feriado del 9 de Julio andaba por los 13.9 no recuerdo la fecha exacta sería 6 p 7 o 5 de julio de 2014

    Fue mi 2da entrada fuerte y todavía no cumplimos 1 año siendo 27/06 y casi triplicamos. Pero no creo que sea un capricho del mercado vean los balances.

    Y Patagonia ? vieron cuanto ganó ? lejos el mejor banco

    Y CEPU y Candela …

    MENOS FANATISMO Y MAS ESTUDIO

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