TRAS LA TORMENTA LLEGA LA CALMA

 

 

41580Nuevamente el resultado electoral trajo una sorpresa, aunque esta vez vinculada al estrecho margen de victoria de Mauricio Macri. Los inversores comenzaron a especular con mayores dificultades políticas a la hora de llevar adelante las correcciones necesarias, ya que la sociedad no se muestra del todo consciente de la magnitud de los desequilibrios financieros. El brutal aumento del déficit fiscal y la desaparición de las reservas del Banco Central lograron mantener un buen nivel de empleo y un alto nivel de consumo. Eso hace más difícil de digerir un ajuste para corregir el camino a una severa crisis cambiaria y recesión cuando no se tiene la sensación social de malestar económico.

El mercado comenzó un debate en torno a la velocidad de los ajustes por su factibilidad, al tiempo que se mostraba especialmente ansioso de conocer los futuros funcionarios primero y las medidas que se llevarían adelante. La principal mirada está puesta en la vigencia del cepo cambiario, que tiene un impacto directo en los títulos dólar-link. Recientemente el equipo económico se pronunció a favor de levantarlo lo más rápidamente posible, con lo cual un bono como el PMO18 cuyo próximo pago con amortización es a fines de enero es un título ideal para capturar la devaluación oficial. El resto de los títulos de igual duración o con vencimientos tempranos se encuentran con rendimientos fuertemente negativos, llegando incluso a rendir menos de 20% anual negativo (justificado por la expectativa de devaluación), mientras que el bono mendocino rinde por encima del 1% positivo.

El segundo punto a resolver son los problemas con los fondos buitre, que limitan el financiamiento externo del país o lo condicionan a tasas muy elevadas como fue la emisión para el pago a Repsol. Los flamantes funcionarios ya se han puesto con la directiva de resolver rápidamente el conflicto y trascendió que los “holdouts” estarían dispuestos a resolver el litigio con un 30% de quita del monto final. Resolver el problema de la deuda potenciaría a los bonos en dólares, que son los que más tienen por ganar si la nueva presidencia logra reencauzar la economía en un sendero de crecimiento.

Los bonos ajustables por el índice de inflación oficial han descontado rápidamente un saneamiento del INDEC luego de la elección general de octubre. Los rendimientos actuales son sensiblemente inferiores a los de entonces (la contratara del aumento de las cotizaciones), quizás esperando también que una parte de la descontada devaluación oficial sea capturada por el nuevo índice. Sin embargo aún hay mucho camino para recorrer antes de poder volver a elaborar un índice fiable y el mercado puede haberse apresurado a demandar los bonos más cortos.

Finalmente, una alternativa atractiva para los inversores más conservadores son los bonos en pesos que pagan un interés variable vinculado a la tasa de plazo fijo mayorista (Badlar). El mercado también descuenta una suba en las tasas de interés para diciembre o enero cuando se realice la apertura del mercado de cambios. La suba del interés o de la tasa de encaje es indispensable para evitar una corrida hacia el dólar con la enorme disponibilidad de pesos que hay en la plaza financiera.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 29.11.2015

4.042 comentarios

  1. Mar

    Que lindo seria que hubiera un foro unido con la gente de Rava, de Bolseros y Tavares, porque en este mundo, uno se muere y no termina de aprender todos los secretos

    • Mat

      Yo estoy en Rava y en algunos grupos de Facebook aparte de seguir esta página. Así que estamos más conectados de lo que se supone.

  2. Fede

    Hola muchachos como se hace para comprar o vender en acciones que negocian 200 o 300 mil por dia?
    La misma celulosa 1 palo 200
    Por ejemplo es el volumen de 1 auto
    Si vendes el auto y compras alguna cuanto pagas arriba para compra
    O si alguien saca algo de un plazo fijo
    Es lamentable estos volumenes suben y bajan con chirolas
    Saludos

  3. Fede

    Ledesma 800 mil. Creo que mueve menos que el quini 6
    Espero que alienten este mercadete y cuanto para crecer y pensar que nos vendieron la ley de m de capitales
    Que hiciste vanoli ?

  4. Histórico

    Es cierto, con estos volúmenes no se puede operar en bolsa y no hablo de plata grande. Ya Fede ha dado buenos ejemplos. Aunque este problema no es de ahora y el gobierno que se va no ha hecho nada para desarrollar nuestro mercado de capitales. La tan mentada “democratización del capital” ha sido una parte más del RELATO.
    Un ejemplo: para abrir una cuenta en bolsa u operar por más de $ 40.000 hay que cumplir una serie de trámites burocráticos que agotan a cualquier nuevo inversor que quiera invertir en bolsa. Y hablo de menos de 3.000 dólares!!
    Sin palabras!!!

  5. Mar

    En la época de Menem, se podía entrar fácilmente. Ahora apunta a que ciudadano común No Ahorre, que consuma tofos sus ahorros

  6. Mar

    Todas las leyes son de aplicación UNIVERSAL, mediante el SICORE , a todos nos retienen el Impuesto a los bienes personales, y el impuesto a la renta financiera(10% de los dividendos). No se salva nadie.

  7. Zeque

    Alguien me puede explicar que es lo que pasa con COME?

    Héctor: qué opinión le merece CADO? Pareciera estar desfasada con el resto de las acciones del “campo”

  8. Tavares
    Author

    En COME hay una gran orden de venta que tiene un operador. Cuando es así, la demanda es prudente.
    Casado debiera mejorar

  9. Mat

    El 1 y el 35 siguen haciendo de las suyas en Comercial del Plata. Nada nuevo bajo el sol. No se a cual de los dos se refiere Héctor con su comentario.

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