TODO EN EL SUBIBAJA

Subibaja

 

 

En la última licitación la autoridad monetaria volvió a reducir la tasa de interés de todos los tramos de la curva, pero especialmente en la de 35 días. Así, se llegó a una tasa nominal anual del 35,5%, ya algo más baja que el 36,75% de la semana anterior. Sin embargo, la velocidad del descenso es menos abrupta de lo que fue la subida, y en el mercado se preparan para nuevas reducciones de interés. La financiación de cortísimo plazo alcanzó niveles de 32% anual, y en el mercado de Lebacs la tasa subía escalonadamente hasta 35% en el plazo de 35 días. Este martes seguramente se recorte la tasa nuevamente.

La gran duda del mercado es el destino que tendrán los pesos a medida que se continúen bajando las tasas de interés. El dólar, que debería verse más demandado, continúa en su tendencia bajista por la oferta continua de fondos del exterior. El anuncio del blanqueo de capitales y los préstamos obtenidos por privados tampoco ayudan al mercado a esperar un repunte sostenido. Sin embargo, el atraso frente a la inflación permite especular con un rebote antes de que termine el año pero con una tendencia subyacente estable.

Unos de los beneficiados por la demanda han sido los bonos ajustables por CER. Los bonos vinculados a la inflación oficial venían cotizando con buen rendimiento producto de las idas y venidas del gobierno nacional para con el índice. En particular, la decisión de tomar el IPC de San Luis cuando a principios de año se había tomado un promedio junto al del índice de CABA cayó mal en el mercado por la discrecionalidad mostrada, si bien es cierto que en el mes de abril y mayo el índice de la Ciudad era sesgado por el impacto tarifario. El apetito por nuevos instrumentos de inversión, sumado a índices de inflación que superan a la tasa de interés (además se difundieron varios informes en el mercado al respecto), indujo a que se dejaran a un lado los temores, y los bonos se vieron bien demandados. Los más largos (PARP, CUAP, DICP) aún continúan mostrando buen atractivo con retornos superiores al 5,25% más el ajuste inflacionario oficial.

También los bonos que ajustan por interés variable Badlar fueron grandes beneficiados por la demanda de los inversores institucionales. La curva de rendimiento, que se encontraba alrededor del 3% y 3,5% adicional al interés variable, bajó rápidamente a niveles de 0,5% anual para los más cortos y 2,7% anual para el PR15, el más largo de ellos. Estos niveles de márgenes son compatibles con perspectivas de fuerte reducción de la tasa de interés (a menor tasa se exige menor margen sobre ella en una suerte de proporción) y ya han perdido atractivo, al menos mientras que las tasas de interés no perforen el 20%, para lo cual falta.

Aquellos que busquen retornos a mayor plazo aún cuentan con la posibilidad de capitalizar la reducción en los bonos en dólares de mayor plazo, adelantándose a un cambio de tendencia del mercado para con el dólar. En particular el mercado comenzó a centrarse en los bonos provinciales como el BPLD, también retrasados en comparación con los soberanos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 29.5.2016

 

3.808 comentarios

  1. Ruben

    Se rumorea que el martes la baja de tasas rondara entre 2,50 y 3 puntos,..!!! Se puede venir una fuerte suba en el merval,.!!!

  2. Ruben

    Muy poco volumen en el merval hoy,….todo el mundo esperando apertura USA y anuncio por gran baja de tasas mañana,….!!! se espera muy fuerte descenso de la misma,…..!!!!!! de ser asi,….el miercoles el Merval podria tener una muy importante suba,…..

    • Juan Carlos

      Que va a pasar con Ctio adhiero me engrape por 2da vez con este papel de cuarta?

      Lo banearon a Pepe le borraron sus comentarios y no salen nuevos post de el

      A cuanto puede bajar y a cuanto puede llegar a subir a un par de años??

  3. Javier Aguirre

    Obra publica y blanqueo de capitales(en duda su exito) , eso por ahora es lo unico que el pais por el momento, en el corto plazo puede hacer, ya que inversiones de afuera Hummmm, no las veo en el corto plazo, mientras tengamos esta inflacion y este descreimiento internacional es muy poco factible que inversiones medianamente serias vengan a Argentina, el pais esta muy mal visto y para mi van a esperar las elecciones 2017 para ver si Macri ratifica un triunfo y contundente, de otra forma no creo que los fondos arriesguen $$$ en este pais. Y prenderle una vela a los comodities principalmente la santa soja que esta cerca de 400 dolares, con un empujoncito en la cotizacion puede ser un punto importantisimo, es lo unico que podemos esperar ya que al pais no le cree nadie todavia y tiene muchosssss kilombos por resolver todavia!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Nos vemos, Javier

  4. Tavares
    Author

    Juan Carlos: No está baneado Pepe. Que escriba lo que quiera igual que Ud, pero con el debido respeto.

  5. MAVERICK

    ESTIMADO HECTOR:

    GRACIAS POR LA OPORTUNIDAD DE EXPRESARNOS EN ESTE FORO.

    LE QUIERO CONSULTAR QUE ESPERA PARA EL CORTO Y EL MEDIANO PLAZO EN CONSULTATIO.

    SALUDOS.

    MAVERICK

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