TIRANDO DE LA CUERDA

 

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Continuando con la saga de los fondos buitre y el gobierno en Nueva York, que mantiene al país en vilo, las autoridades argentinas continúan sin dar señales claras de resolución del litigio sino más bien buscando sumar presión política e internacional para conseguir mejores condiciones de negociación. Más puntualmente, el interés del gobierno parece estar centrado en conseguir cursar los pagos a los bonistas del canje al mismo tiempo de negociar (al menos en las declaraciones) con los fondos buitre.

Por el momento, los pagos a los bonistas del canje continúan prohibidos mientras que no se arregle el conflicto. Así lo interpretó el juez Griesa en la audiencia del viernes pasado, dando a entender que el pago no fue cumplido por Argentina. Si bien en el futuro es una interpretación apelable, el punto es crucial para saber si existe causal de pedido de aceleración o no dado que el gobierno argentino alegaba haber realizado el pago. El principal problema para el país es que el 25% de los bonistas de una serie del canje pida la aceleración de vencimientos de esa serie y de esa manera Argentina deba pagar el 100% del capital, algo prácticamente imposible.

El gobierno dispone de algunas alternativas: puede por un lado juntar presión para lograr negociar en mejores condiciones (pagándole a los bonistas del canje mientras tanto) o bien podría mantener la situación y negociar pasado el 2015 cuando venza la cláusula RUFO. Por el momento Argentina tiene vigente una ley local, que reemplazó la Ley Cerrojo, prohibiendo a los funcionarios dar mejor trato a los bonistas que no canjearon (entre ellos los fondos buitre) que a los que sí lo hicieron. Por lo tanto, para poder negociar debe modificar esa ley más allá de que pase el 2015, ya que luce improbable que los fondos buitre acepten el canje que representaría entre un 15% y un 25% de la sentencia.

Sin embargo, el tiempo no juega del todo a favor de Argentina. El default no produce impactos inmediatos en las cuentas públicas, pero dada la situación actual se corre el riesgo de ir sufriendo un continuo deterioro. En primer lugar, las escasas formas de financiación externa que tenía Argentina se perderían (refinanciación de créditos de organismos multilaterales, créditos del comercio exterior). En segundo lugar, se trabaría el nuevo financiamiento externo, principalmente para recomponer reservas e invertir en energía para resolver el déficit energético que golpea las cuentas externas. Finalmente, la inversión privada, tanto interna pero especialmente externa, se vería muy desincentivada y profundizaría la actual situación de recesión. De continuar así, se comprometerían seriamente las reservas internacionales o bien sería necesario un fuerte ajuste.

En lo que se refiere a los títulos públicos, la mejor solución viene de la resolución definitiva del conflicto, sea arribando un acuerdo ahora o bien en el 2015 una vez pasado el vencimiento de las RUFO.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 10.8.2014

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  197. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

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  216. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  226. Hey there! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results. If you know of any please share. Many thanks!

  227. I’m not sure exactly why but this site is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

  228. Hi there! I realize this is sort of off-topic but I needed to ask. Does managing a well-established blog such as yours take a lot of work? I’m completely new to writing a blog but I do write in my journal everyday. I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for new aspiring bloggers. Appreciate it!

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  239. Pod warunkiem od czasu jakiegokolwiek frazeologizmu wypatrujesz bytu, co egzystowaloby w stanie wspomoc Twoja erekcje plus nie odnosisz w tym jakiegokolwiek wiekszego szczescia, postanow sie na wizyta lokalnego sprawnie czyniacego serwisu, kto ulzyl przedtem niezwykle wysokiej kwocie figur. Nielokalne test natomiast obdarzony wyobraznia uporzadkowanie polecenia inkrustowany obszerna intelektem oraz obyczajem dyskrecji umie w pierwsza klasa maniera przyczynic sie az do wykluczenia Twoich klopotow z erekcja.

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  241. You could certainly see your skills in the paintings you write. The arena hopes for more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. All the time follow your heart.

  242. Jezeli odkad dowolnego frazeologizmu zabiegasz czegos, co egzystowaloby w poziomie wspomoc Twoja erekcje plus nie odnosisz w owym jakiegos wiekszego powodzenia, zadecydujze sie na wizyta polskiego sprawnie wykonujacego serwisu, kto odciazyl w tej chwili nadzwyczaj rozleglej kwocie postaci. Niewlasne eksperiencja plus obdarzony wyobraznia ustroj polecenia zachecony gigantyczna oczytaniem a przyzwyczajeniem dyskrecji zaradzi w klasyczny droga dodac sie do wyeliminowania Twoich klopotow sposrod erekcja.

  243. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  258. Howdy! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when viewing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any recommendations, please share. Many thanks!

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  285. Hiya! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My site looks weird when viewing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. Cheers!|

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  290. My coder is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on a number of websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

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  296. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  297. Have you ever thought about writing an ebook or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based upon on the same topics you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my readers would appreciate your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e mail.

  298. Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My site goes over a lot of the same topics as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you’re interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

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  303. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thank you

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  307. Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site? My website is in the exact same area of interest as yours and my visitors would definitely benefit from some of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Cheers!

  308. The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

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  313. I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everyone else experiencing problems with your blog. It seems like some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This could be a problem with my web browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Cheers

  314. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility issues? A small number of my blog audience have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any solutions to help fix this issue?

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  320. Today, I went to the beachfront with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  321. Howdy, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you protect against it, any plugin or anything you can recommend? I get so much lately it’s driving me mad so any assistance is very much appreciated.

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  323. Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any recommendations?

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  327. Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My website addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Awesome blog by the way!

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  338. Hi there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

  339. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet smart so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

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  350. Good day! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!

  351. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Ie. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem resolved soon. Kudos

  352. Nice read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing some research on that. And he just bought me lunch because I found it for him smile Thus let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch! «A human being has a natural desire to have more of a good thing than he needs.» by Mark Twain.

  353. Excellent read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch! «Do you want my one-word secret of happiness–it’s growth–mental, financial, you name it.» by Harold S. Geneen.

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  359. Hello there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a team of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You have done a marvellous job!|

  360. Hello there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You have done a wonderful job!

  361. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% positive. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

  362. Hello would you mind letting me know which web host you’re using? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Can you suggest a good web hosting provider at a reasonable price? Thanks, I appreciate it!

  363. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your blog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility issues? A handful of my blog readers have complained about my website not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any suggestions to help fix this issue?

  364. Today, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a 30 foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  365. Howdy! This post could not be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my good old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this post to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Many thanks for sharing!

  366. Do you have a spam problem on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to trade solutions with other folks, be sure to shoot me an email if interested.

  367. I do not know whether it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your blog. It appears like some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my browser because I’ve had this happen before. Thanks

  368. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

  369. Good blog post loporod. A few things i would like to make contributions about is that pc memory ought to be purchased when your computer cannot cope with what you do with it. One can put in two RAM memory boards having 1GB each, as an illustration, but not certainly one of 1GB and one having 2GB. One should check the car maker’s documentation for one’s PC to make certain what type of ram it can take.

  370. Thanks a lot for sharing this with all people you actually recognize what you are talking about! Bookmarked. Please also talk over with my website =). We can have a link alternate agreement among us!

  371. afb

    Good day! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thank you!

  372. Hi there great blog! Does running a blog such as this take a large amount of work? I have no understanding of programming but I had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyway, should you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners please share. I know this is off topic nevertheless I simply wanted to ask. Thank you!

  373. Hey there! I’ve been following your site for some time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Kingwood Texas! Just wanted to mention keep up the fantastic work!

  374. Interesting blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your design. Many thanks

  375. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa? My blog addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

  376. You could certainly see your skills within the paintings you write. The sector hopes for more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to say how they believe. Always follow your heart. «We may pass violets looking for roses. We may pass contentment looking for victory.» by Bern Williams.