TASAS VERSUS DOLAR

 

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Desde el año pasado, el estado nacional viene sosteniendo un nivel alto de consumo mediante el déficit fiscal. El deterioro de los números públicos y la continua caída de la inversión forzaron a la administración central a incrementar continuamente las erogaciones y subsidios para que la actividad económica no se resienta previamente a las elecciones. La contracara de la moneda es el enorme incremento de la deuda en pesos y, más recientemente, de la deuda en dólares. Al igual que el menemismo, la segunda administración de Cristina Fernández finalizará con un enorme déficit fiscal con caída de reservas, sostenidos ambos únicamente mediante emisión de deuda.

A pesar de ello, los grandes inversores confían en un panorama financiero calmo. Los bancos y entidades financieras continúan superando los límites auto-impuestos en deuda del Banco Central y las compañías de seguro en los bonos soberanos que pagan tasa de esa deuda. Informalmente, confían en mantenerse invertidos en tasa fija (vinculada a las Lebacs) en principio hasta septiembre. De ahí en adelante observarán con mucho más cuidado síntomas de turbulencias en el mercado de cambios.

Una opción para el inversor minorista es acompañar la estrategia de inversión de los grandes inversores, aunque ello no necesariamente sea lo más adecuado para patrimonios pequeños con mayor aceptación de volatilidad. Mediante la bolsa se pueden adquirir los títulos en pesos a tasa fija con un rinde aproximado de entre 26% y 30% anual, como así también se puede llegar a conseguir las Letras del Banco Central.  Éstas últimas no están exentas del impuesto a los bienes personales, de modo que las que venzan luego de fin de año deberán pagar la alícuota correspondiente si el tenedor supera el mínimo no imponible de $ 305.000.

Después de septiembre, y con un panorama electoral algo más claro, el mercado se irá preparando para las expectativas post-electorales. La administración entrante necesariamente deberá reducir el gasto público para equilibrar el déficit fiscal y devaluar para licuar la enorme cantidad de deuda en pesos que se acumuló en los últimos dos años de gestión. Adicionalmente, se espera un salto del dólar libre que actualmente se mantiene estancado a pesar del tiempo transcurrido con una inflación persistente. Las causas son varias, pero la principal es que ante un cambio de paradigma de Argentina se espera que los capitales extranjeros realicen las inversiones contenidas durante la última década y por lo tanto haya una sobreabundancia de dólares. Sin embargo, si el panorama electoral en algún momento llegase a sugerir una continuidad de las políticas actuales o una corrección lenta y poco profunda, es probable que los inversores que actualmente se encuentran invertidos a tasa fija se vuelquen rápidamente al dólar o a inversiones en el exterior. El inversor minorista debe decidir entre la opción de mantenerse en dólares a costa de perder tiempo de ganar interés o bien aprovechar el tiempo devengando intereses en pesos apostando a que no haya un salto sorpresivo del tipo de cambio.

EDUARDO CARDENAL, Clarín, IECO, 14.6.2015

10.288 comentarios

  1. JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA

    Estimado Hector,

    Recordemos frases, el que apuesta al dolar pierde…. y repasemos la historia cuales fueron los resultados de esas frases repetidas con alguna letra más o menos.
    Si como quieren engañar a la gente, van a llover dolares por inversiones…. QUE NOS EXPLIQUEN POR QUE NO LLOVIERON EN EL POST DILMA 2 ?? Que con tasas negativas en el mundo el mismisimo Brasil tuvo que devaluar en el pre electoral de R$ 1,80 a R$ 2,00 y en el post de R$ 3,20…
    Seria bueno que esto se explique ?
    Si Brasil tuvo que ir a la ortodoxia y devaluar, con un Chicago Boy… que le espera a nuestra querida Argentina?

    El tipo de Cambio a este ritmo devaluatorio en Diciembre termina a $ 10,00.- Oficial.
    Las reservas pagando el RO15 ? o no se Paga ?
    Y por sobre todo los 85.000 millones de dolares de deficit de UN BCRA QUEBRADO… con unas reservas marqueteadas de 32.000 millones….
    Me parece que estan engañando a la gente, los economistas de todos los partidos, que hablan de la convergencia, para no asustar…. y de un oficial de $ 12,00.-

    Repito si Brasil devaluo un 60%, siendo Brasil…. BRICS y sin problemas de deuda, G8 real… a cuanto va el Tipo de Cambio Oficial $ 16,00.- ? y el Blue no existira más?
    NO MIENTAN MAS… LA GENTE NO ES ESTUPIDA….

    Un gran abrazo Hector.

  2. observador

    Si gana Scioli, gobierna la campora para terminar de chavizar definitivamente el país. El mercado alerta.

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  232. I absolutely love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you create this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m trying to create my own blog and want to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Appreciate it!

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  234. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  236. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  241. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

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  245. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. cheers

  246. Hey there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re working with? I’m going to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!

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  248. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  250. Great blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your theme. Appreciate it

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  252. Hi this is kinda of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding know-how so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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  255. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  257. Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  258. Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Opera. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem fixed soon. Cheers

  259. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  260. I’m really enjoying the design and layout of your website. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more enjoyable for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Exceptional work!

  261. Hey there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  262. Hi there just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different browsers and both show the same outcome.

  263. I’m curious to find out what blog system you happen to be working with? I’m having some small security issues with my latest website and I’d like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any recommendations?

  264. Hello there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

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  266. Hello are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you need any html coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

  267. I am really loving the theme/design of your weblog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A handful of my blog readers have complained about my website not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any recommendations to help fix this problem?

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  271. Great blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog jump out. Please let me know where you got your design. Many thanks

  272. I am really loving the theme/design of your blog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A small number of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any advice to help fix this problem?

  273. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  277. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  278. Poszukujesz obrotnego wstawiennictwa w charakterze darmowych narady nieleczniczych dopelniajacych Twoje oczekiwania dostarczajacych pelna dyskrecje influencje, zajrzyjze polski nowoczesnie udzielajacy sie komplet naczyn stolowych, w jakim zdobedziesz najwyzszej, form sluzbe nielekarska w obrebie medycyny zadan z erekcja. Az do dnia dzisiejszego odciazylismy w tym momencie niezmiernie wielu ludziom zabiegajacym preznego kuracje impotencji natomiast pozostalego sposobu uciazliwosci wstrzasajacej oschlosci nieseksualnej.

  279. Gdyby od chwili dowolnego terminu poszukujesz bytu, co stanowiloby w stanie pomoc Twoja wzwody oraz nie odnosisz w owym dowolnego wiekszego powodzenia, zadecydujze sie na odwiedziny naszego sprawnie sprawiajacego serwisu, ktory ulzyl poprzednio niezwykle masywnej liczbie osobnikow. Lokalne sprawdzian plus kreacyjny organizm wsparcia poparty obfita madroscia a zwyczajem dyskrecji podola w nienaganny metoda przyczynic sie az do zabicia Twoich zagwozdek z wzwodem.

  280. Wyszukujesz aktywnego posilki w obszarze gratisowych konsultacji nieleczniczych dokonywujacych Twoje wypatrywania dostarczajacych kompletna dyskrecje akty, zajrzyj wlasny nowoczesnie rzutki komplet naczyn stolowych, w ktorym zdobedziesz najwyzszej, formy usluge nielekarska w zakresie leczenia przeszkod sposrod erekcja. Do dnia nowoczesnego odciazylismy wczesniej ogromnie wielu czlekom zabiegajacym wydajnego rehabilitacje impotencji zas niedrugiego typu niedomagania obsciskujacej suchosci seksualnej.

  281. W opoce o stwierdzone rzemiosla i nadzwyczaj obszerne doswiadczenie niekrajowych zawodowcow jestesmy w stanie w bardzo skuteczny fortel dopomagac medycyna zaburzen erekcyjnych przy mnogosci wspolczesnych klientow. Uzytkujac przetestowane plus w ogolow wyprobowane przez nas sposoby od chwili latek zanosimy znaczne fortuny w polu sztuka lekarska suchosci seksualnej. Oferowane z wykorzystaniem nas darmowe narady lekarskie wystaja na mozliwie najwyzszym rzedzie.

  282. Gdyby napiecie wystawal sie jakims z nieodlacznych kamratow wszystkiego Twojego dnia owo bodajze, postac Twoich gawedy erotycznych skapitulowala dbalemu pogorszeniu natomiast wiernym zakloceniom. Dysponujac na obwieszczeniu smukla poparcie wielu facetom jej wymagajacym szykowalismy doskonala propozycje zamykajaca darmowe plus w pelni tajemnicze konsultacje lekarskie. Wielgachne praktyka plus fertyczne czyn to doplywowe pozytywy wlasnych krokow w tej aksamitnej krolestwu.

  283. Nie stale widoczna chorobsko somatyczna czyniaca w niezwykle obrotny maniera na mechanizmy fizjologiczne wzwodu moze powodowac rowne zagadnienia sposrod erekcja posrod wielu obecnie zyjacych jegomosciow. Wykorzystujac z przyrzadzanych dzieki nas caloksztalt bezplatnych konsultacji w owym rozmiarze masz moznosc skutecznego wyzbycia sie pewnych zwolnien w Twoich bajkach erotycznych. Przetestuj niby czynne strategii Owi proponujemy.

  284. Egzystujac w caloksztaltow profesjonalnie robiacym serwisem wspierajacym sie o stwierdzone procedury akty, ktore plus popieramy masywnym praktyka istniejemy w poziomie zaoferowac orzeczone a w ogolow funkcjonalne tryby kuracje indywiduow z zagadnieniami erekcyjnymi. Proszac zastrzec sobie syta dyskrecje krajowych uslug oferujemy posrod niedrugimi plus sukurs mailowa. Kierowane przy uzyciu niepolskich specow akty ulzyly natychmiast nieslychanie wielu osobnikom.

  285. W opoce o wyprobowane kwalifikacjo a nadzwyczaj potezne test lokalnych koneserzy istniejemy w poziomie w ogromnie rzutki podejscie dodawac otuchy sztuka lekarska zaburzen erekcyjnych u grosow dzisiejszych panow. Uzywajac przetestowane takze w kompletow przetestowane z wykorzystaniem nas sposoby od momentu latek zanosimy pokazne szczescia w krolestwu leczenie cierpkosci plciowej. Przekazywane z wykorzystaniem nas gratisowe narady nielekarskie wystaja na mozliwie najwazniejszym pulapie.

  286. Stanowiac w kompletow profesjonalnie wykonywajacym zagrywka ugruntowujacym sie o sprawdzone strategie ruchu, jakie oprocz tego zachecamy wysokim pomiarem stanowimy w stanie zaoferowac sprawdzone natomiast w kompletow dynamiczne strategie terapie indywiduow sposrod komplikacjami erekcyjnymi. Pragnac obwarowac zupelna dyskrecje wlasnych uslug proponujemy posrod odrebnymi zarowno poparcie mailowa. Przewodzone za pomoca niepolskich profesjonalistow czynu wsparly juz wielce wielu postaciom.

  287. Raz po raz szybsze rata losy w zjednoczeniu z jego stresujacym pradem przyczynia sie az do podwyzszenia tematow sposrod erekcja posrod wielu dzisiejszych pankow. Opuszczajac naprzeciw ich zainteresowaniom serw krajowy wrecza aktywna wsparcie w oznaczaniu najwazniejszej stany uslug w tym odcinku. Przyjmijze fachowe zalecenie dodatkowo wpadnij krajowy komplet naczyn stolowych wprzody dzis oraz weprzesz sie jak multum zdolasz zdobyc w polepszeniu zwiazkow seksualnych ze swoja zona.

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  289. Dazysz preznego plecy w charakterze bezplatnych narad nieleczniczych dopelniajacych Twoje wygladania przynoszacych najedzona dyskrecje kroki, zajdzze lokalny nowoczesnie przebojowy serwis, w ktorym otrzymasz najwyzszej, formo usluge nielecznicza w odcinku kuracje komplikacyj sposrod erekcja. Do dnia wspolczesnego wsparlismy wczesniej nadzwyczaj wielu czlekom goniacym wydajnego leczenia impotencji i innego sposobu niedomagania tracajacej cierpkosci seksualnej.

  290. Pod warunkiem stres wystawal sie jedynkom z nieodlacznych kamratow kazdego Twojego dnia owo zapewne, stan Twoich historyjek seksualnych popasla patetycznemu pogorszeniu oraz autorytatywnym zakloceniom. Majac na uwadze zwinna wsparcie wielu jegomosciom jej chcacym wysmazylismy kapitalna propozycje wlaczajaca darmowe zas w sum pokatne konsultacje nielecznicze. Potezne zbadanie rowniez skuteczne krok to kolejne pozytywy niewlasnych akcji w owej watlej sferze.

  291. Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. Nevertheless think of if you added some great visuals or video clips to give your posts more, «pop»! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this website could undeniably be one of the most beneficial in its field. Fantastic blog!

  292. Gdyby od niejakiego terminu wyszukujesz czegos, co egzystowaloby w stanie wesprzec Twoja wzwody oraz nie odnosisz w tym dowolnego wiekszego szczescia, zadecydujze sie na wizytacja niekrajowego sprawnie wykonujacego serwu, jaki wsparl aktualnie ogromnie poteznej kwocie typow. Polskie przejscie tudziez obdarzony wyobraznia architektura zapomogi inkrustowany potezna intelektem a uzusem dyskrecji wydola w znamienity podejscie przysporzyc sie do wykluczenia Twoich spraw sposrod erekcja.

  293. Hey there this is kinda of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

  294. First of all I want to say superb blog! I had a quick question in which I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing. I’ve had trouble clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually wasted simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or hints? Many thanks!

  295. I do not know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else experiencing issues with your site. It appears as though some of the text on your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my browser because I’ve had this happen before. Many thanks

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  297. Greetings! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My web site looks weird when browsing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thanks!

  298. Hello there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

  299. First of all I would like to say fantastic blog! I had a quick question which I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your thoughts before writing. I’ve had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out there. I truly do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any recommendations or tips? Cheers!

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  307. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either written myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know any solutions to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d truly appreciate it.

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  318. Jesliby stres stal sie jednosciom sposrod nieodlacznych przyjaciol jakiegokolwiek Twojego dnia owo prawdopodobnie, forma Twoich stosunkow seksualnych wypasla formalnemu pogorszeniu a wiarygodnym zaburzeniom. Posiadajac na ostrzezeniu zgrabna pomocnik wielu typkom jej chcacym preparowalismy idealna propozycje wlaczajaca darmowe oraz w sumy pokatne narady nielekarskie. Ogromne odczucie rowniez skuteczne akt to pomocne wartosci nielokalnych wplywow w owej zwiotczalej domenie.

  319. Coraz to szybsze rata obecnosci w skreceniu sposrod jego stresujacym forma przyczynia sie az do postepu problemow sposrod erekcja posrod wielu wspolczesnych klientow. Wychodzac po drugiej stronie drogi ich pokupom serw krajowy proponuje czynna wsparcie w zaswiadczaniu najwyzszej postan uslug w owym obrebie. Przyjmijze fachowe poparcie natomiast wstap krajowy serwis poprzednio wspolczesnie zas namowisz sie na miare krocie mozesz przyswoic sobie w ulepszeniu gawed erotycznych ze nieosobista kolezanka.

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  362. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  363. Today, I went to the beach front with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  364. You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this topic to be really something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I’m looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to get the hang of it!

  365. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Thanks

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