TASA SI, TASA NO

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Septiembre cerró finalmente con resultados mixtos en inflación. El INDEC, que tiene la palabra final para los bonos con CER, sentenció un 1,1% de aumento directo en los precios, que daría un bruto de 1,8% de inflación genuina si se considera el rezago del fallo de la Corte Suprema por las tarifas de gas. Por las mismas causas, el número de octubre se verá afectado, pero a la inversa, ya que comienzan a regir las nuevas tarifas de gas que el gobierno nacional implementó tras el show con muchos actores pero sin espectadores de las audiencias públicas en la Usina del Arte.

A efectos del mercado la inflación juega un papel doble. Por un lado interesa evaluar tasas razonables de inversión para el 2017. Se trataría pues de un cálculo más estructural y de mediano plazo. Por otro lado, la inflación de cortísimo plazo (mes a mes) parece jugar un rol fundamental en la decisión de las autoridades del Banco Central para determinar la tasa de las Lebacs cada semana. No es casualidad que se haya acelerado la baja durante agosto cuando el alza de precios sorpresivamente se ralentizó como que se haya detenido desde mediados de septiembre cuando se empezó a observar una aceleración de la suba de precios. Por lo pronto no se encuentran datos relevantes de octubre que permitan dilucidar cómo será la dinámica de precios del mes. Lo que sí se pudo ver, a través de la información recopilada de la agencia PriceStats, es una aceleración a finales de septiembre de los precios relevados por internet. No obstante es una medición muy volátil.

De este modo, los grandes inversores que se encuentran haciendo tasa en pesos (en el mercado no se vislumbra ningún salto relevante en la cotización del dólar) seguramente seguirán concentrándose en la Lebac de 35 días en la licitación semanal. En caso de que se vea una morigeración en el alza de precios y el Central retome la reducción en las tasas de interés, los plazos se irán extendiendo. Los inversores minoristas también tienen la posibilidad de acompañar la estrategia, tanto desde la cuenta comitente de cualquier banco o sociedad de bolsa (averiguar bien las comisiones que cobran estas últimas) como a través de fondos comunes de inversión.

Mirando a plazos más largos, las bajas tasas en la colocación de los instrumentos en pesos a tasa fija son el panorama más claro que se tiene para tasas de largo plazo. La mayoría de estos instrumentos son suscriptos por inversores extranjeros que apuestan a una devaluación del peso por debajo del interés de los títulos (y de la inflación). Pero aun cuando se cumpla el audaz camino de descenso inflacionario que se propuso el Gobierno Nacional con el Banco Central a la cabeza, los títulos que ajustan por CER presentan un rendimiento por demás superior a los bonos a tasa fija, lo que constituye una buena apuesta para aquellos inversores con un horizonte de inversión superior a un año.

Del lado de la divisa, el mercado en general continúa mirando un escenario más de apreciación (en términos reales) que de depreciación, con lo cual prefiere las inversiones en pesos a las de dólares. No obstante, las carteras personales suelen guardar un importante nivel de dolarización, aunque tomado principalmente en instrumentos más largos ya que se apuesta a la baja en las tasas de interés de largo plazo para el año entrante. Aquí comienza a jugar un rol más preponderante la situación mundial, en particular la política monetaria que implemente la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos con las tasas de interés para un mercado que está mirando atentamente el rendimiento del bono del tesoro estadounidense a 10 años (actualmente rondando el 1,70% anual). De todas maneras se mantiene un nivel de escepticismo respecto a la posibilidad de cambios bruscos y menos aún que se trasladen hacia las tasas largas.

El mercado accionario también estuvo movido apuntalado por la suba de Petróleo Brasileiro que se movió acorde a la firmeza del petróleo a nivel internacional. El principal hidrocarburo se mantiene firme por las sucesivas decisiones de la OPEP de recortar la producción para sostener el precio y en la semana se sumó el índice de inventarios de crudo de Estados Unidos, que ya comienza a mostrar la caída producida por los recortes de inversión de los últimos años. Más flojos se vieron los bancos y las industrias vinculadas a la construcción, que siguen manteniendo un perfil interesante para el año que viene traccionadas por la obra pública y privada que se comienza a vislumbrar.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 16.10.2016

616 comentarios

  1. SIRTHOMASMORE

    BRIO. En bancos, yo estoy incrementando este papel. Coincido con la nota, en que en el mediano plazo, lo que más recorrido seguirá teniendo son: energéticas, agropecuarias y construcción. ¨En lo que va del año las acciones de los bancos en el mercado local acumulan, en el caso de Patagonia un alza de 56%, seguido por Macro con 47%, Hipotecario 32% y Galicia 29%. Por su parte, Santander pierde 25% y Francés 14%.¨ Ver Nota completa: http://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercados/Bancos-como-se-espera-que-evolucionen-las-acciones-en-la-Bolsa-20161014-0131.html

  2. Victor

    Que acciones ven con up-side hasta diciembre, teniendo en cuenta que varias estan operando en maximos y la verdad da un poco de temor entrar ahora, caso Pampa, Agro Ceco y otras. Agradezco su vision

    • Temor tenian tambien cuando MIRG valia $600, $700, $800, y ni hablar cuando toco los $1000. Hoy un papel cotizando en torno a los $1400. Y asi como ese hay cantidad de ejemplos. Por eso me parece que hay que poner a un lado al miedo y operar con la tendencia. Dicho esto, cualquier activo que elijas compralo cuando revierta desde algun soporte y activa un STOP 5/6% debajo del mismo. Estamos en un buen mercado para hacer $$$, que el miedo no te deje afuera.

  3. guille

    Buenas tardes, pregunta para el Sr, Tavares o alguien que entienda,
    tengo acciones de hace mas de 3 años , no estoy inscripto en afip porque di de baja mi actividad y solo tengo cuil y no esta activo por la baja de la actividad y entiendo que los que tenemos acciones argentinas estan exentas de impuestos por lo que no estamos obligados a tributar .
    Consulta , hay que declarar la tenencia o no hace falta dado que no estoy activo en afip y es como si tubiera plazos fijos que tampoco estan alcanzados , corresponderia a blanqueo o no ya que esta en una cuenta comitente en agente de bolsa y en CNV. Las acciones argentinas y los titulos no pagan bienes personales ni ganancias, por lo que consulto si alguien sabe y puede responder desde ya muchisimas gracias.

    • Bostero

      guille, con todo respeto…porque no te asesorás con un Contador? Si no es cómo pedir un diagnostico médico por mail….

    • LEMA

      Quien mejor que el profe Tavares que maneja ambas cuestiones
      Otro que debrria responder tus dudas es tu agente de Bolsa. A mi me pide hasta el examen de tiroides. Ellos son agentes de informacion.

    • LAS1976

      A mi me empezaron a empomar con Ingresos Brutos x 3. Vendo las acciones y cuando se me acreditan en la cuenta me debitan el % 3,5 de IIBB, cuando ya las aseguradoras que represento me hacen la retencion del % 3,5 de honorarios (los que coloque en acciones), y cuando se efectiviza la transferencia me morfan otro % 3,5.- % 3,5 del agente de retencion, % 3,5 cuando se acredita la transferencia de honorarios en la cuenta, y % 3,5 cuando vendo las acciones que compre con esos honorarios. Una locura. Supuestamente tendria que estar exento. Ademas no es mi profesion normal y habitual y solo estoy moviendo mi dinero, no el de terceros. No soy agente de bolsa, ni nada que se le parezca.- Hay alguna explicacion??

  4. Pepe Argento

    No pagas pero debes declararlas en Ganancias y Bienes Personales.

    No queres que la AFIP te meta el dedo en el culo, no te aconsejo que tengas a la Brasilera, Tenaris y me parece que el Santander (No el Brio el otro que cotiza STD). Tienen sede afuera del pais y esas tributan permitiendo que el inspector de AFIP te puertee el orificio sin preservativo.

  5. guille

    Bostero, ya consulte y no sabe nada al respecto de las acciones, no tiene idea, en este caso no saben con los que consulte, por eso pido ayuda, gracias

  6. guille

    Pepe , gracias por responder, pero en mi caso como mencione no tengo actividad comercial ya que la di de baja hace mucho tiempo, no pago ganancias ni bienes personales porque no estoy inscripto en afip y no tengo nada ya que vendi todo y compre acciones.

  7. carlitos70

    Si Javier Aguirre, gracias. Lo que me nubló fue que ceco subió demasiado el mes pasado, Ese fue mi error.

    Gracias

  8. Amateur

    Pregunta al foro, como la ven a DGCU2?? Y AEN?? La primera ha tenido un buen rendimiento interanual y semanal, la duda es si seguira subiendo, la segunda, un misterio, pero Energetica, a $ 4,60, tentadora. ( y gracias Pepe Argento, por el dato de los papeles que pueden ser detectables)
    Saludos

  9. SIRTHOMASMORE

    LAS 3 DE LA SEMANA. INVJ, CADO y ERAR. Si el petróleo sigue estable arriba 50, le pego otro poco más a APBR… Por estos papeles andaremos, a priori… Pero hasta que esto no arranque…

  10. Guillermo Eduardo

    Buen dìa Guille , segùn el monto que tengas invertido , te pueden llegar a preguntar de donde sacaste el dinero para comprar acciones , tu patrimonio en los años anteriores no superaba los $ 305.000,-?, si superaba tenìas que hacer presentaciòn por lo menos de bienes personales y pagar si tu patrimonio excede de esa cifra, para este año lo llevaron a $ 800.000,-
    Es importante por si alguna vez se cruza informaciòn tener los comprobantes de donde sacaste el dinero.-
    Hace 5 años atràs por tener acciones me solicitaron un requerimiento que tuve que explicar de donde saquè el dinero, y a partir de ahì me aconsejò el inspector de la AFIP hacer la presentaciòn los primeros 2 años no paguè nada, los otros años empecè a pagar bienes personales debido a que los $ 305.000, no lo aumentaron.-
    Cada caso es muy particular, lo que te escrbì es mi experiencia pero es mejor buscar un buen contador, este es como el psicòlogo , le tenès que contar todo.-
    Que tengas que hacer presentaciòn, no significa que tengas que pagar y el contador te va a cobrar 1 vez al año cuando la tenga que hacer, antes de Abril.-
    Espero te sirva mi comentario.-
    Abrazo a todos los foristas
    Guillermo Eduardo

  11. Tavares
    Author

    Guille: Te contestó muy bien Guillermo. Coincido con Pepe sobre el cuidado que hay que tener impositivamente con las acciones extranjeras.

  12. Jorge

    Con Petrobras que no paga dividendos por ahora no hay problema con tendría habría que pagar ganancias por los dividendos pero si la tenencia de 1000 p menos yo creo que la afín tiene otras cosas más importantes ahora inscripto en bienes personales hay que estar y presentar las liquidaciones todos los años y si te reclaman por ejemplo el 35 por ciento de 159 dólares se lo pagas con moratoria . A mí me parece que si estás inscripto y las declaras y no blanqueas porque no lo necesitas no pueden ponerte más que una multa.las acciones de la semana. Me parecen cresud erar y gcla.

  13. guille

    Bune dia y agradesco muchisimo compartir sus diferentes opiniones y el poder orientar a los pequeños inversores.
    Mi tenencia es superior a los montos mencionados , no tengo acciones de empresas como PBR , Ts, Banco rio. solo acciones locales.
    Gulliermo Eduardo, te agradeco mucho tu info, te comento que el dinero que inverti en su momento en acciones esta justificado por venta de bienes entre otras. El tema es si corresponde entrar al blanqueo o no porque es dinero que esta invertido en la bolsa, y si no corresponde entrar al blanqueo por lo que comentan la tenencia corresponderia informarla en Bienes Personales aunque no este incripto en Afip ya que no poseo actividad.
    Pregunto ademas, la renta financiera no es que esta exenta, desde ya muy buen debate para los que aca invertimos en bolsa, muchas gracias estimados y agradesco su devoluciones.

  14. ELIO

    El hecho de ser una actividad exenta no justifica que no presentes tu declaración si exceden los montos de 305k hasta 2015, y 800k desde este año, incluyendo en dicho monto todo tu patrimonio, incluso vehículo e inmueble aun el que uses de vivienda si es propio,
    indudablemente que cada caso es particular y lleno de particularidades, por ello es aconsejable que busques un contador, pero no cualquier contador, el titulo no basta, debe estar actualizado en impuestos, te digo por experiencia, sino te van a hacer meter la pata.
    Y al no haber presentado la declaración los años anteriores ya no podes acceder al beneficio para el cumplidor de pedir la excepción para los años 2016-2017-2018 obviamente.

  15. Guillermo Eduardo

    Buen dìa Elio , que info tenès de pedir la excepciòn para adelante , mi contador me recomendò seguir pagando los adelantos de bienes personales debido a que el manifiesta que està todo muy confuso, que no hay instructivos de la AFIP que sean claros. Por otra parte leì que habiendo pagado todo y alguna vez te atrasaste aunque sea un dìa al pagar , eso te genero algun pequeño interes, hasta que no canceles no podès pedir la excepciòn.-
    Por otro lado creo que igual tenès que hacer las presentaciones aunque estes exhimido.-
    Alguien tiene informaciòn que pueda aportar ?
    Desde ya gracias.-
    Abrazo a los forista
    Guillermo Eduardo

    • ELIO

      Buen día Guillermo, hasta donde me dijo mi contador, que no pongo las manos en el fuego de que tenga la justa lamentablemente, me dijo que no pague mas los anticipos y que ya pidió la excepción, y la verdad no mire mas la pagina si figura aceptada o no, desde la pagina de la afip ya anunciaban que no se debía pagar la segunda cuota del anticipo para los cumplidores, y si hubiese intereses generados deberían constar en tu cuenta, al menos asi me dijo el contador. Lo mismo si te encuentran bienes sin declarar, alguna inconsistencia o efectivo, este ultimo únicamente si esta en alguna cuenta obviamente y no fue declarado al 2015.
      y las declaraciones supongo se tienen que seguir haciendo normalmente, de los honorarios del contador no nos salvamos ja ja. Tampoco quien garantiza que no se pague mas bs ps desde el 2019, por ahora son promesas.

  16. Newinversor

    Elio,…por cual recomendas empezar,…que sea mas entretenido y didactico,no estoy acostumbrado a la lectura,
    Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch(unpaso adelante de los mercados) El Inversor Inteligente de Benjamin Grahan?
    Valoro su involucracion en un novato,…gracias

    • ELIO

      gracias Newinversor por la consulta, pero lamento decirte que no soy muy adepto a la literatura de mercado, es materia pendiente, por el momento solo me rijo por mis propios indicios y experiencia para crear mis estrategias, tengo la mente virgen todavía en conceptos de autores bursátiles,
      sí en cambio otro tipo de lectura menos tecnica como R. Kiyosaki, Napoleón Hill, Dale Carnegie, etc,
      de todos modos en el foro seguramente hay quienes puedan darte su valiosa opinión al respecto.

  17. Guillermo Eduardo

    Gracias Elio , parece que cada contador con su librito yo tampoco pongo las manos en el fuego por el mio , es de los contadores que te dice por las dudas paga ,en la semana me comunicarè con èl y si tengo alguna informaciòn la compartirè en el foro.-
    Cambiando de tema yo alguna vez fui cliente de Rava leo en el foro algunos comentarios , como ser que Mirgor tiene pendiente dividendos en acciones , alguien tiene alguna informaciòn ?.-
    Desde ya gracias.-
    Abrazio
    Guillermo Eduardo

  18. Carlos

    Mirgor corta cupon dentro de diez días maso.Ya fue publicada la autorizacion en la pag.de la CNV de ahí maso 10 dias.Apurate que vuela.
    Saludos Carlos

  19. notario

    La nota del Cronista que pegó SIRTHOMASMORE, por lo menos en lo que atañe a BRIO está errada. Este banco pagó el 100% en acciones creo que en septiembre. En consecuencia, no bajó el % que se menciona, sino que subió un 50% aproximadamente en 2016.

  20. Guillermo Eduardo

    Gracias ,Carlos yo siempre me fijo en Bolsar y hasta ahora no vi nada, tenès idea cuanto paga ? , por suerte tengo algunas no muchas pero suma , igualmente cuando pague baja en proporciòn a lo que paga , como dijo el Maestro hay que ver si la perjudica y en cuanto la baja de de los aranceles de importaciòn.-
    Siempre me trajo satisfacciones hace años atràs daba dividendos en acciones y luego empezò a pagar en efectivo, este año ya pagò en Mayo algo en efectivo y ahora como vos informas en acciones.-
    Gracias nuevamente por la data.-
    Abrazo
    Guillermo Eduardo

  21. Carlos

    Si,por cada acción que tengas 72 hs antes de la fecha de pago te dan 2 mas.Tendrías 3 en total,el precio lo pone el mercado el día del corte.Fijate que el fuerte de la facturacion de Mirgor son los celulares y eso sigue intacto y aumentando la porcion de mercado
    Saludos Carlos

  22. AR

    Han notado que CAPU entra al Merval en el proximo trim?. Es solo la proyeccion, tambien me gusta manijearla, igual hoy tenia a la venta algunas, cuando lo vi, las cancele.

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