TASA O ACCIONES, ESA ES LA CUESTION

 

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Fuerte baja bursátil como consecuencia de la también fuerte suba en las tasas de interés. Con el tipo de cambio en los valores esperados, la disyuntiva es saber si se entra en Bolsa luego de la caída de las últimas ruedas, esperar líquido o colocar a plazo. Los papeles más castigados fueron los que más habían subido en los últimos tiempos. Hay que diferenciar entre las promesas por el cambio económico y las realidades. Entre estas últimas cabría considerar a Holcim ya que va a haber obras por todo el país. Se espera la conferencia de prense del ministro de Hacienda hoy a la tarde, no descartándose sorpresas, habida cuenta de la evolución del mercado accionario.

9.101 comentarios

  1. Fede

    Aca todo parece facil
    Entran dolares sube la tasa y levantamos el cepo
    Veamos que no dicen no lo que dicen
    Sigue la emision y el deficit fiscal del 7 %
    Si pagan estas tasas el deficit va a aumentar y la emision tambien
    Y la recesion que viene va hacer bajar la recaudacion por eso estan desesperados para que entren a los bancos
    Eso traera mas emision y mas inflacion
    Que veranito nos espera
    Saludos

  2. Fede

    Para que vean hoy a brasil le bajaron la calificacion porque el superavit era cero si cero y el ministro de economia renuncia porque queria que fuera 0,50%
    Y aca sigue la fiesta de la emision
    Maestro te acordas del cuasifiscal?
    Saludos

  3. Fede

    Hay que bajar el gasto y deficit cero
    Cero como se hace?

    Hacelo macri quiero ver la podadora
    Showme the numbers prat gay
    Decime cual es el deficit de eso no hablas ja

  4. Mat

    La suba de tasas de plazo fijo es la estocada fatal al Merval. Olvídense por ahora del ciclo alcista. Habrá que pasar el verano. Saludos.

  5. Mar

    Ni tasa . ni bolsa. Hay muchisims gente que trabaja en negro o informal, que debdo a la gran cantidad de trabas que le ponen, No puede ahorrar en la Bolsa, ni en plazo fijo. El Unico Camino que le queda, es el Dolar

  6. Cheque

    Mas alla de lo de la tasa tanto hoy como ayer se ajusto el tc implicito con los adr sino chequeen como terminaron las acciones afuera. Abz!

  7. Martin

    Yo creo que la baja es por CCL, nada mas.
    Liberacion rara la del cepo, de los u$s25.000 millones, confirmado no hay 1 solo dolar.

  8. Luis...

    La semana anterior hice el comemtario para conocer sus opiniones respecto al nivel de tasas que podríamos tener cuando se levantara el cepo.
    Me sorprendió que nadie, absolutamente nadie, replicó mi comentario. Interpreté que estaban subestimando el porcentaje de tasa, o bien que pocos apostaban que el cepo se levantaría “tan rápido”.
    Ahora, esta es la realidad. En el corto plazo, las tasas vinieron para quedarse. Es una herramienta para contener el “interes” por el dolar. Eso, lo sabemos todos.
    Ahora, desarmar una cartera de acciones para pasarse a plazo fijo? No…definitivamente no. Es de cortoplacistas.
    Derivar unas monedas “aprovechando” esta bonanza de tasas, sí claro.
    Pero, no cometan el error de desarmar portafolios pensando en el corto plazo. Es un pensamiento que de a poco, se debe erradicar. En mas, no solo como inversores, como País debemos ser estrategas a largo plazo, solo así, lograremos el éxito.

    • Martin

      Luis: Tene en cuenta que este sitio trata sobre todo de acciones. En lo personal no le doy importancia a la tasa o a los bonos, yo como inversor de acciones estoy acostumbrado a otras rentabilidades. De Septiembre hasta aca tengo rentabilidades del 100%, sin tener las acciones que mas subieron como Agro, Capu, Semi. Lamentablemente no las vi a esas, sino tendria mucho mas

      Una tasa del 40% anual para un plazo fijo en un pais que vive devaluando, me parece una risa. No sirve para nada, yo a los bonos ni los miro, ni se como se llaman los dolar-linked. Jamas tuve bonos, ni tendria.

      Tampoco veo una bonanza de tasas, Prat-Gay convalidaba tasas del 90% cuando estaba en el Central.

      En el unico caso que pongo dinero a tasa, es cuando tomo ganancia que tengo pensado usar en 2 o 3 meses, lo hago en un FCI de tesoreria, pero ni me fijo en la tasa, es para no tener el dinero en casa

  9. Augusto

    Estimados: ayer leí en otro foro que el tema suba de tasas será por un tiempo determinado como medida para secar la plaza y tentar a todo el mundo a invertir en pf y no comprar dólares. En la misma línea, la tasa de caución saltó a casi un 40% ayer por lo que seguramente habrá desarme de posiciones que incidirá directamente en el precio de las acciones a la baja. Opino como algunos de ustedes que el mercado de acciones lamentablemente seguirá planchado durante 3 meses por lo menos.

    Por otro lado, estuve intentando desde el lunes cuando empezaron los rumores firmes del fin del cepo para definirme por un bono dolar linked para desarmar mi cartera y cubrirme de la devaluación pero no me animé finalmente asi que hoy pago las consecuencias.

    Gracias a todos por sus aportes!!!! Los leo siempre y aprendo un montón de sus comentarios.

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