TANTEANDO EL NUEVO AÑO

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Enero prometía ser un mes de statu quo en materia financiera: dólar dormido, Banco Central licitando a las mismas tasas, falta de avances en las negociaciones con los fondos buitre. Sin embargo, en los primeros días del año la autoridad monetaria decidió elevar la cotización del dólar oficial aunque a un ritmo muy inferior que la devaluación progresiva de Marcó del Pont. De todas maneras, la suba hasta el momento tiene menos de una semana pero no dejó de causar extrañeza en los operadores del mercado luego de varios meses de estática.

El mercado oficial del dólar actualmente tiene un grado de imprevisibilidad importante por el poco volumen de operaciones que hay. Normalmente, el mercado de cambios es una conjunción entre oferta y demanda privadas de divisa y la política cambiaria del gobierno, que suele querer guiar a este precio tan fundamental para el comercio exterior y las finanzas de un país. No obstante, el cercenamiento del acceso al mercado por cuestiones financieras desde la instauración del cepo redujo notablemente el volumen del mercado mayorista de cambios. Finalmente, el año pasado el gobierno decidió frenar las presiones sobre el cambio oficial prohibiendo prácticamente las importaciones aún a costa de una recesión creciente. De modo que al no haber actores de peso en el mercado de cambios más allá del propio gobierno, se torna muy discrecional y por lo tanto imprevisible.

Por lo pronto los inversores no terminan de definirse sobre qué esperar del tipo de cambio. Por supuesto, las pequeñas subas diarias de la última semana generaron una mayor demanda de los bonos que pagan por el cambio oficial, pero no se termina de tomar una posición definida ya que es muy pronto para establecer una tendencia. También el dólar bursátil ha comenzado a reflotar luego de meses de fuerte caída.

A diferencia de los bonos en dólares, los títulos que pagan en pesos al cambio oficial tienen un rendimiento menor pero cuentan con el aliciente de ganarse la brecha cambiaria en el 2016 en caso de que la nueva administración unifique el mercado. La caída del dólar bursátil no solamente había golpeado los bonos en dólares sino también deslució a los “dólar-link” por disminuir la brecha y su potencial ganancia. La reaparición del apetito por el dólar vuelve a poner en pantalla los bonos del tramo medio en dólares como el AA17 y el AY24 y toda la curva de los “dólar-link”.

Un mix de inversiones entre ambos tipos de bonos (dólar y dólar-link) es altamente recomendable para los inversores que buscan buena rentabilidad asumiendo un riesgo relativamente bajo. Los bonos más largos de la Ciudad de Buenos tienen rendimiento en dólares oficiales superior al 6,5% y las amortizaciones comienzan luego del 2016 cuando eventualmente ya habría ocurrido la unificación cambiaria. Se asume el riesgo que el cepo se mantenga o el tipo de cambio se desdoble, aunque parecen improbables por el nocivo efecto que tienen sobre el desempeño económico del país.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 11.1.2015

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