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Argentina logró colocar con éxito la mayor emisión de la historia de países emergentes y un monto superior a lo colocado por todo América Latina durante el 2015. Desde el mercado se tenía una visión relativamente pesimista y, sin embargo, se estuvo gratamente sorprendido por la sobredemanda de bonos argentinos y a tasas inferiores a las esperadas. Cada 1% adicional de rendimiento superior en  la colocación hubiera implicado un costo fiscal al Tesoro de 180 millones de dólares al año.

La colocación también colaboró en descartar las dudas sobre la magnitud del efecto positivo que Argentina tendría una vez  regularizada su deuda en default. El duro primer cuatrimestre comenzó a hacer dudar a los inversores acerca de la premisa que sostenía que “hay mucha demanda por Argentina”, algo que quedó demostrado con la emisión de deuda, ya que en finanzas no hay mejor demostración que la inyección de capital. Ayudó asimismo que la justicia de Estados Unidos haya permitido la comercialización «normal» de la deuda: las colocaciones furtivas que debíamos hacer por obligación no hacían más que encarecer el costo de fondeo al dificultar el acceso a los inversores.

Argentina llevó adelante una negociación muy agresiva en el 2005 y 2010 que, si bien consiguió quitas importantes en el valor nominal de la deuda, a la postre tuvo una litigiosidad muy importante en los tribunales (cuyo final se está viendo hoy) y sobre todo no logró reinsertar al país en las plazas financieras. Los mercados abiertos, públicos y transparentes de deuda ofrecían fondeo a tasas superiores al 10% anual en dólares y, aun así, hacer ofertas primarias era dificultoso por los riesgos de embargo. Máxime si se considera las históricamente bajas tasas de interés internacionales de la época. El país debió recurrir al fondeo doméstico, insuficiente para grandes proyectos de infraestructura que a la vez son indispensables para corregir la macroeconomía.

Actualmente los títulos de deuda en dólares del Gobierno Nacional tienen rendimientos altos en comparación con el resto de los países emergentes y se espera que tras la apertura los rendimientos se equiparen con los de la región. De todas maneras es plausible pensar que la primera emisión necesariamente sea a tasas algo más elevadas que las de mercado, pero puedan bajar en el mercado secundario no bien llegan a cotizar por justamente resolver el conflicto. Existe una razón técnica también para ello: muchos inversores no pueden invertir en Argentina mientras se encuentre en default, de modo que sí o sí deben esperar a una segunda emisión o bien comprar la primera pero una vez resuelto el litigio judicial.

La salida del default representará un punto de inflexión en la política de Hacienda. Se revelará el verdadero costo de fondeo del país, además de acceder a créditos más baratos que los del mercado de capitales provenientes de los organismos multilaterales de crédito. El acceso a ese fondeo podría utilizarse para “limpiar” el stock de Letras del Banco Central en circulación, reactivar la demanda de pesos por inversión en infraestructura y reducir las perniciosamente elevadas tasas de interés.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 24.4.2016

4.213 comentarios

  1. raul

    por que no emitieron primero un título a baja tasa (ej. 3 %) para blanquear capitales .

    Luego hubieran tomado la deuda «bancaria» y mucho más cara necesaria.

    Pero primero tomaron la bancaria, le dieron un gran negocio a los bancos y luego veran el blanqueo.

    Adicionalmente el comportamiento de los bonos posterior a la emisión (subiendo inmediatamente) demuestra que por incapacidad u otras razones el corte de tasa fue alto.

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  2. Ruben

    Mañana veo suba en bancos y por noticia del viernes al cierre ,…en Pampa,…!
    El martes empezaran con baja tasas en Lebacs,…se viene una muy buena etapa para la bolsa argentina,…!!! Atentos a la selectividad de papeles atrasados que seran lus q mas subiran,..!!!

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  3. Ruben

    Tambien veo a CECO2 y a TGNO4,…muy atractivos,…en el general !!!! junto al banco Frances,….y como dije tambien a Pampa en las lideres,….!!!!!!!! no se que opina el Sr. tavares,….

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  4. Gustavo

    CADO muy atrasada quedo, los campos estan valorizados a precios ridiculos en el balance, deberia valer 3 veces mas de lo que vale esta accion.
    el año pasado aparte hubo recompra de acciones, este año parece que tambien..es momento de acumular nominales

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    • Pepe Argento

      Lrmqlrp sonamos ahora se van a garcar todos los compradores y Ctio define la cuña para abajo, que manden el proyecto al congreso de una conchud vez y termine de joder la Anses en el medio. 3500 Millones de palos tiene la Anses.

      A ver como sale la rueda pero con esta noticia me parece que hoy desarmo y me voy de este papel de mierd

      Me rompe las pelotas decirlo pero con esa noticia la cuña la puede definir para abajo y ahi Juan Kgon va a tener razon y los 29 del pelotudo de Einlazer serán una realidad. LRPQLRLRLRLRLRP.

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    • Juan Carlos

      Pepe, Javier

      Jodiste tanto con los $1.000 de Consultatio y jodias cuando te decian la posibilidad que se vaya abajo, ahora con mas evidencia por lo menos lo reconoces de a poco te vas curtiendo Pepe.

      Vemos lo mismo la noticia no salio en un buen momento y esta semana define tendencia Ctio con esta mala noticia que refuerza la hipotesis que la Anses venderá pronto la cuña la define para abajo.

      Estoy aguantando al papel agarrandome los dientes mientras todo el panel sube menos Ctio para ver si el buen trimestral que se viene la despierta pero esa cuña es de temer si la rompe para abajo.

      Mi opinion es aguantarla mientras siga lateral hasta el trimestral y si eso no la despierta vender, en caso que rompa la cuña para abajo también es vender.

      Es un papelazo pero le estan tirando demasiada mierda de todos lados, el que la puede aguantar 2 años o mas sin mirar la pantalla y agarrarse los dientes porque el panel vuela y Ctio baja es una inversion ganadora porque nunca defrauda con los balances, el que busca ganancias de corto va a tener que vender porque con tanta mierda que le tiran el papel tiene mas posibilidades de seguir lateral o bajar este año.

  5. Javier Aguirre

    Si estoy de acuerdo Juan Carlos, es un muy buen papel que permanentemente tiene problemas externos a la empresa ,fijate que los problemas que tuvo ,primero un agente que vendia a cualquier precio por orden supuestamente de mujeres divorciadas, luego la venta que todos sabemos , ahora el tema del Anses, pero si paramos la pelota y pensamos nunca bajo por malos balances, siempre por chimentos. NOS VAMOS JAVIER

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  237. Hello there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!

  238. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m not 100% certain. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

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  251. My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on various websites for about a year and am nervous about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be really appreciated!

  252. Hey! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa? My site discusses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

  253. Hey! I know this is kind of off-topic but I had to ask. Does running a well-established website like yours require a massive amount work? I am brand new to blogging however I do write in my diary on a daily basis. I’d like to start a blog so I will be able to share my own experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

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  260. Hey there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m having a difficult time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  261. Hello there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!

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  264. Hello there! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it tough to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to start. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Cheers

  265. Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  266. I do not know if it’s just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing problems with your blog. It looks like some of the text in your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This could be a issue with my browser because I’ve had this happen before. Appreciate it

  267. Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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