SE VIENEN FONDOS DEL EXTERIOR A LA BOLSA -La nota de la semana-.

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Ratificando lo que se viene señalando en esta columna durante las últimas semanas e independientemente de circunstancial baja, cada vez con mayor avidez se observan fondos internacionales de inversión interesados en la compra de acciones argentinas teniendo en cuenta la finalización del ciclo kirchnerista, al menos el kirchnerismo duro. Los primeros en hacer preguntas y entrar en contacto con fondos locales y casas de Bolsa son los más relevantes, sólo interesados por el momento con el panel Merval. Pero en los últimos días aparecieron los fondos de inversión más arriesgados y con menor compromiso en sus cartas orgánicas sobre los activos a tener.

Por el momento el rubro que recibe más interés sigue siendo el bancario. La gran firmeza de los ADR, especialmente el de Banco Francés es una prueba más que suficiente. Últimamente también se vieron muy demandadas en la plaza local las acciones de Banco Patagonia, que por el  momento no cotiza en Nueva York.

A riesgo de ser reiterativos, debe señalarse el retraso de los papeles bancarios en términos históricos, fundamentalmente por no poder hacer uso de sus ganancias en forma integral y distribuirla entre sus accionistas. Esto determina también que sus capitalizaciones bursátiles sean bajas respecto a sus colegas de la región.

En el panel líder, además de las tradicionales YPF, APBR y Tenaris, se nota gran volumen en Comercial del Plata. En las últimas ruedas las “vedettes” fueron las energéticas, especialmente Transener y Pampa. En el Panel general, deslumbró CECO2. La fuerte caída de APBR divide al mercado. Algunos aprovechan para tomar posiciones confiados en otra dirección para la empresa brasileña. Otros creen que la crisis y todavía mayor, con costos crecientes y caída del precio del petróleo, y buscan otros rumbos.

Para los primeros días de febrero se espera la Memoria de Rigolleau, plaza que en los últimos días se mostró más animada con presencia de compradores y vendedores, oscilando los $ 30.

Se especula con un nuevo dividendo en efectivo y con una ganancia anual cercana a los 100 millones.

Seguramente en un  par de semanas comenzarán a conocerse los balances anuales de los bancos. Su adelantamiento antes de la fecha de vencimiento debiera ser una obligación dada las suspicacias que provoca el hecho de tener que adelantar las cifras al Banco Central. Se descuenta que los números serán muy buenos en general.

En la semana Agrometal mandó una nota a la Bolsa señalando que volverá a tener producción a partir de marzo por la fuerte caída en las ventas en diciembre y enero, meses estacionalmente muy malos para el sector. Todo es cierto y preocupante, pero es un tema del campo y de su rentabilidad. Agrometal está muy barata. Su primer trimestre vendrá con pérdidas como todos los años pero la sorpresa puede venir con un final a diciembre mucho mejor de lo esperado. En el tercer trimestre ganó neto 6 millones, disminuyendo la pérdida que traía. En el cuarto podría triplicar la ganancia del tercero ya que según nuestros análisis la contabilización de los bonos atrasados ya cobrados daría vuelta un ejercicio que todo indicaba que sería negativo.

Héctor Tavares

5.249 comentarios

  1. Ruben Nocce

    Muy esclarecedor el comentario sobre Agrometal. Tranquiliza y mucho. Pienso que a menos de $2 y especulando con el 2016, es negocio

  2. Mat

    AGRO estuvo muy vendedora, una masacre. Aprovechen a cargar a 1,70. A pesar del momento actual, un regalo para el mediano plazo como bien dice Ud.

  3. htavares

    Estimados: Es futurología pensar en una cotización de una acción en agosto. Ya es complicado estimar lo del día siguiente. A Come la veo bien y con demanda creciente. Ayer subió al final como YPF y APBR

  4. Heineken

    COME es la acción del 2015. Mínimo $ 4 a fin de año, pudiendo testear los $ 5 antes de las elecciones

  5. Fede

    Gracias, por el trabajo, coincido con ud. tibiamente y sigilosamente compras mantienen los papeles, y en el merval NO PETROLERO ya podemos ver como existen empresas que empezaron a descontar UN CAMBIO… bueno o malo EL MERCADO PAGARA CAMBIO DE AQUI A LAS PRE PASO…. bancos, exportadoras, eletricas, podemos ver valores casi duplicados…. sera cuestion de seguir los capitales.

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