SE SIGUE PENSANDO EN EL 2016 -la nota de la semana-

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Diversos acontecimientos mundiales condicionaron el comportamiento de las Bolsas en la semana, llevando cierta tranquilidad con algunas dudas sobre su sustentabilidad.En efecto, que seguridad existe respecto a la solución en GRECIA en contra de la decisión del plebiscito que voto por el “no”, si la salvación monetaria exige un “Sangre, sudor y lagrimas” impracticable, en contraprestación?.

Es de desear que la moderación del Fondo Monetario aconsejando alguna “quita” sea analizada.

El control del desarrollo nuclear de IRAN desactivó el riesgo de conflictos terminales, pero complica las economías petroleras al levantarse el embargo económico.

La producción petrolera iraní se agregará a la sobreoferta existente presionando sobre su precio, en detrimento de otras producciones energéticas alternativas. La técnica del “fracking” necesita precios  superiores a u$S 70 el barril. La firmeza del dólar llegó para quedarse para desagrado de los países productores de “commodities”.Los cerealeros deberán lidiar con producciones “récords” en momentos que en CHINA se “pinchan” algunas burbujas.

Con este panorama se encontrarán las nuevas autoridades que surjan del acto eleccionario en la Argentina, en la que se juega “otro partido”. En efecto, localmente existe consenso en que el “maquillaje” pre electoral no resiste mayor sustento por lo que habrá que modificarlo paulatinamente. Tema crucial es el valor del dólar que actúa a contrapelo del mundo cuyas monedas se devalúan, mientras aquí se revalúa. Sea por simple devaluación (no recomendable) o por una combinación con bajas de retenciones a la exportación, control de la inflación, recupero de  credibilidad jurídica, etc, debe reinstalarse la competitividad real empresaria. De allí que en nuestra Bolsa se apunta al 2016, independientemente del “día a día”.

Ya hemos señalado la importancia de las exportadoras industriales en las que se destacan ALUAR y SIDERAR y como sorpresa FIPLASTO, con nueva y eficiente conducción y un precio de remate, con una ganancia interanual de sólo el 17%.

El sector agrícola y las economías regionales tienen la particularidad de generar ingreso inmediato de divisas.-

Se manifiesta interés en el volumen y firmeza de AGROMETAL, SEMINO, SAN MIGUEL, MOLINOS RIO, QUICKFOOD, al  que debe agregarse CRESUD por su inversión en tierras agrícolas y de engorde.

Las eléctricas y gasíferas están “calentando motores”, mientras están “lanzadas” COMERCIAL DEL PLATA con volumen y firmeza increíble, así como PESA que se despega de la baja del petróleo y resiste la anodina aclaración de su accionista mayoritario respeto a su venta. El mercado indica que “por algo será” el interés por sus papeles. Mientras tanto sin alharacas, PETROLERA PAMPA conviene con YPF inversiones en  VACA MUERTA. Llama la atención la flojedad de CONSULTATIO, pero sigue acumulando resultados. En efecto, reclasifica “ACTIVOS” de acuerdo a normas NIIF y produce una utilidad de 772 millones que será registrada como reserva facultativa. Por su parte TELECOM, liberada de su relación con TELEFONICA, tiene grandes expectativas con la incorporación de nuevos productos y tecnología. La recuperación de la construcción y el despacho de cemento potencia a HOLCIM (Ex Minetti) y FERRUM.

Héctor Tavares

4.371 comentarios

  1. Nico

    Hector, por AT come me da un target de 4.85/5…con 6 semanas mas de suba! Sin embargo tiene que romper la resistencia en 3.53 y sino rompe soportar arriba de 3.30! Usted lo ve posible, hay algun fundamental que nos pueda ayudar a llegar a estos objetivos?

  2. Tavares
    Author

    Horacio: a la brevedad
    Lucas: No hay relación con Telefónica como antes
    Nico: Soy economista(con perdón) y creo en la econometría y no en los análisis técnicos que no son científicos y menos en bolsas subdesarrolladas. Ya falta menos de un mes para las opciones de agosto y van a venir presiones en ambos sentidos. COME es un papel para mantener y incluso comprar pero para períodos que excedan la coyuntura. En la Argentina todo es cambiante y más para estos momentos.

  3. Emilio

    Hola Hector, te dejo una inquietud, te pido tu vision sobre el boden 2015 y si se se va a pagar. la pregunta surge ya que en las ultimas horas comienzan a aparecer informes sobre las reservas las que no superarían los 16000 millones de dolares. Por supuesto que predecir esto es casi imposible, pero estaria buena una palabra sobre el tema. Gracias.

  4. mripa

    Estimado Tavares, teniendo en cuenta que vienen las opciones de agosto, ¿me conviene vender y luego recomprar o mantener? Tengo pata, sami, colo y alua.

  5. luis najmark

    Carlos Casado paga dividendos en dólares.
    Sus activos están fundamentalmente en Paraguay y también en Uruguay.
    Los pesos argentinos “no los conocen”.
    Saludos.
    Luis.

  6. Tavares
    Author

    De acuerdo Luis. Mripa: Son papeles distintos. Pata lo maneja un agente y hay ahora foristas que la quieren subir a toda costa. La acción está a un precio razonable. Yo no vendería.
    Aluar dependerá de la política económica del 2016. Pero como queda dicho, algo van a tener que hacer con el tipo de cambio oficial. Si a Colorín la esperó hasta ahora, esperemos la suscripción que es inminente. SAMI recontra firme. Los cítricos van a ir para la India y EEUU a la brevedad. Siempre que vendí SAMI me arrepentí..

  7. Héctor, totalmente de acuerdo con SAMI y con la inutilidad de los análisis técnicos que sólo explican lo que pasó y hacia el futuro ponen tantas alternativas de suba como de baja. Que si quiebra el mínimo, que si rompe el máximo….jaja
    Para mí es una gran chantada!
    También de acuerdo en su visión respecto a posicionarse en empresas vinculadas con la exportación como ERAR y Molinos Río además de SAMI. Con respecto a Aluar me parece que tiene un capital demasiado expandido y un P/E no atractivo.
    También me parecen infravaloradas Fiplasto y Longvie.
    Abrazo.

  8. CHARLY

    HOLA HECTOR! como ve usted a Casado para el mediano y largo plazo??? es actractiva o no??
    Atte
    Carlos (de La Rioja)

  9. lemagiscien

    “Siempre que vendí SAMI me arrepentí…”
    ja ja ja Yo digo lo mismo, lo reafirmo y lo podría ilustrar midiéndolo en nominales que he perdido de SAMI.
    Los inversores en acciones somos en general inquietos y nos “pica” el mantenernos sentados de largo sobre las mismas especies. La ambicion nos lleva muchas veces a buscar un golpe de suba en otro papel para multiplicar más rápido lo logrado. Yirar por diversos papeles salvo mucha suerte o épocas de avalancha alcista, por lo general, no es buen negocio.
    En cuanto a SAMI se espera un grato 2º T, y pese al “dólar coyuntural” y las novedades por vos nombradas por venir aun, las nuevas tierras y plantaciones en Sudáfrica y el aumento de producción y exportaciones desde Uruguay ya estarán marcando diferencia.
    Saludos

  10. ALB

    Yo estoy muy conforme c SAMI pero estaba escuchando algo de un bicho que podría afectar las plantas no sé que onda con eso. De todas formas esperaba que baje a 37 p entrar mas pero no llega che

  11. JAVIER AGUIRRE

    Yo recomiendo leer todo lo relacionado a Warren Buffet, por lo menos a mi me dejo todo tan claro y tan simple a la vez, en los libros sobre el esta todo esto que se plantea, y lo claro que se plantea y de facil realizacion, pero a la vez tan dificil por la naturaleza humana de gustarle lo complicado.
    Es un genio y mal no le fue (me parece), yo digo que antes de invertir, leer las ideas de este genio, a mi me ayudo a descartar muchos mitos, y en el negocio que yo ejerzo tambien me ayudo, la verdad el tipo es simplemente genial y tambien como todo genio como se planta con sus ideas contra todo y con argumentos.
    Por ejemplo Sami, ¿si vendes hay alguna alternativa mejor? muy pocas, entonce ¿para que vender? una buena accion como esta va aumentar por sus fundamentos y te dara dividendos, muchas asi no hay

    Nos vemos, Javier

  12. javier

    respecto a CADO, que tengo una fe barbara ya que hoy el guarani tiene estabilidad, en su momento se corrio el rumor , aclaro rumor, que en sus tierras (en paraguay) habia yacimientos de petroleo (cada uno sabra)
    saludos

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