La sucesión de días sin novedades concretas de los fondos buitre pone a todos los analistas a evaluar el centenar de posibilidades que existen en una situación sin precedentes para la República. El hecho que más complica el panorama es quizás la poca certeza existente respecto de cuál es la estrategia del gobierno, si es que existe una. El próximo miércoles, 30 de julio, vence el período de gracia establecido por el prospecto (contrato) del canje para pagar el interés de los títulos Discount que debieron pagarse el 30 de junio. Pasado ese día se entrará en un terreno muy complejo.
Por lo pronto, el Gobierno se halla deshojando la margarita entre unas pocas opciones. Una de ellas es intentar llegar al 2015 con o sin stay (medida que suspenda el fallo temporalmente) para acordar entonces o no acordar nunca con los fondos buitre e intentar llevar adelante un nuevo canje de deuda. Esta alternativa, que pareciera ser la que intenta el gobierno, se basa en un temor por aplicación de una cláusula del canje, que vence a fin de año. La famosa cláusula RUFO dice que si se ofrece a quienes no ingresaron al canje una oferta voluntaria mejor que la que recibieron quienes lo aceptaron, entonces se debe ofrecer a estos últimos la misma oferta o una equivalente. El gobierno entonces no estaría dispuesto a correr el riesgo de que el pago de la sentencia se interprete como una oferta voluntaria que ponga en peligro la reestructuración de la deuda.
De todas maneras, la mayoría de los especialistas en reestructuraciones de deuda sostienen que el riesgo de activar dicha cláusula es prácticamente inexistente, y que en última instancia tendría un nivel de litigio potencial muy inferior a entrar en default nuevamente. Cabría entonces preguntarse si el discurso oficial refleja verdaderamente un temor a la cláusula RUFO o es un método de negociación para tratar de conseguir un pago más favorable.
En suma, las posibilidades de arreglar un pago a los buitres antes de fin de mes se van desvaneciendo a medida que nos acercamos al “día D” a pesar de la proliferación de rumores de acuerdos secretos de último momento. Si bien no hay que descartarlos, operar en función de un acuerdo en estos momentos es por lo menos temerario. Por lo tanto, se estaría encaminando al escenario más dudoso, que es el del default. La bolsa comenzó a operar en consecuencia, con una tendencia a la baja con algún paréntesis casual de optimismo.
Las perspectivas futuras en un evento de default son muy difusas, ya que se entra en un territorio donde existirá mucha negociación oculta. Para ser declarado el default de alguna serie de los Discount se necesita que el 25% de los tenedores de dicha serie reclame el pago anticipado de los bonos. También existe la posibilidad de que el 50% de los tenedores anule el default siempre que Argentina deposite el pago en el fiduciario (hecho que insólitamente estaría cumpliendo). Sin embargo, es un arduo proceso donde tampoco está claro cómo resolvería la sentencia de Griesa, ya que el ordenamiento aplica a los bonos del canje como a cualquier bono de futuros canjes de los actuales.
Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín; IECO, 27.7.2014
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