SE DESPIERTA EL DOLAR

a levantarse

 

 

El acuerdo entre el gobierno y las cerealeras le ofreció un verano cambiario al dólar para pasar el año sin grandes sobresaltos. Incluso con una fuerte estabilidad en torno a los $13. Sin embargo las pulseadas entre los liquidadores, que esperaban un tipo de cambio más alto, y el gobierno comenzaron y la oferta de dólares se retiró parcialmente. El dólar mayorista al final de la semana se operó en torno a los $14. Un salto del 7,5% en tan sólo 5 días. Amén de las pulseadas locales, la cotización no se mantiene ajena a los mercados mundiales, donde las monedas emergentes se vieron también depreciadas.

La suba del dólar despertó nuevamente el interés de cobertura por los inversores. Los títulos que pagan en pesos al cambio oficial, “dólar link” en la jerga, se vieron muy demandados y con subas superiores al salto del tipo de cambio. La oferta de este tipo de bonos para el inversor minorista es más variada que la de bonos en dólares, aunque son plazos más cortos que éstos. Los bonos provinciales “dólar link” más cortos como el BDC16 (Ciudad de Buenos Aires), PMY16 (Mendoza), ERG16 (Entre Ríos) o NDG1 (Neuquén) ofrecen rendimientos en dólares que pueden llegar a ser del 15% anual. Sin embargo, al ser títulos tan cortos dependen mucho de la evolución del dólar en el corto plazo.

Los títulos de mediano plazo son más aconsejables para el inversor conservador porque se evita parcialmente la volatilidad del dólar en el corto plazo. El NDG21 de la provincia de Neuquén ofrece un rendimiento anual superior al 10,5% en dólares, más atractivo que los bonos nacionales en dólar billete con rendimientos inferiores al 8% en plazo similar. Para aquellos con mayor interés por la tasa tienen la opción de los títulos de Mendoza al 2018 (PMO18 y PMD18), con un rendimiento un poco mayor aunque optando por una provincia con una situación fiscal más comprometida.

Otra alternativa para buscar mayor capitalización en el largo plazo sigue siendo el Discount en dólares (DICA). Las perspectivas de Argentina en el mercado internacional son favorables y una resolución del conflicto con los fondos buitre llevaría a obtener una buena diferencia con estos bonos largos. El bono Par (PARA) tiene un potencial algo superior, pero el Discount tiene un cupón anual más fuerte que permite recuperar la inversión más rápidamente en caso que el arreglo con los fondos buitre se demore o la calidad crediticia soberana cambie a una tendencia negativa.

Los inversores más conservadores tienen la posibilidad de invertir en bonos en pesos con buen rendimiento. Actualmente las tasas de interés son superiores a la inflación esperada con lo cual las inversiones en pesos hay que mirarlas con mayor “cariño”. El bono soberano AO17 es de los más rentables de aquellos que pagan tasa variable Badlar (promedio de plazo fijo mayorista de bancos privados). También los inversores pueden contactarse con sus agentes de bolsa o bancos para averiguar de los costos de participar en la licitación de Letras del Banco Central. Estos instrumentos ofrecen tasas algo superiores a las de plazo fijo, siempre que la comisión para entrar no sea muy elevada.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 10.1.2015

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