SE DESACELERO LA BAJA

 

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Esta vez el cierre de operaciones no fue lo peor de la jornada, por lo que se alienta a que la plaza mejore. Muy pendiente de los mercados internacionales, la elección en Estados Unidos y el precio del petróleo. muchos inversores que estaban líquidos comienzan a tomar posiciones con mucha prudencia. El índice Merval bajó 1,75% con un volumen aceptable de 436 millones de pesos. Hubo 14 alzas, 59 bajas y 10 papeles sin cambios.

Lo mejor; Juan Minetti, TGLT, CECO2, Petrolera Pampa y Semino.

 

1.017 comentarios

  1. SIRTHOMASMORE

    PAMP. Maestro, ¿la ve demasiado afectada por el ADR y la coyuntura «histérica» de ventas? Sé que en el mediano / largo es un papel de gran potencial… Además de lo «local», me preocupa el impacto en los papeles con ADR. ERAR, un lujo, aguantando el tormentón. Gracias, Maestro.

    • Maxi

      PAMPA. a pesar de la corrección del merval, pampa solo bajo un 2,6%. Tiene un aguante fenomenal. En breve sale disparada.
      ERAR, hoy subió un 1% pero la vienen castigando se lo lindo.
      Si comparamos, Pampa es mucho más sólida que cualquier acción del panel líder.

  2. vengadoranonimo

    da toda la sensación de alguna que otra correcion en ciertos días y próximamente pero creo que la serruchada seguirá con mas rojos que verdes y usando la calculadora en muchos papeles esa cuenta en el corto plazo dara negativa.ojala me equivoque pero no veo que la bolsa pueda tener un ritmo sostenido up .en el intradiario largan en porcentuales muy abajo en relación a como los » marcan alevosamente en los últimos 10 minutos antes del cierre «.encima cantidad de empresas subieron mucho en comparación a cualquier inversion y muchos medios como admirados terminan fogoneando negativamente con eso.sumale petróleo,trump,mercados en general,europa y por supuesto la economía argentina y sus vaivenes…

  3. Ezeslayer

    Pregunta a toda la gente con años de bolsa que hay acá:. Es normal (es legal?) que un banco oficiando de broker (en este caso el Santander) muerda tanto no ya en las comisiones sino en los precios mismos? La verdad que es imposible ganar así por más que aciertes en tu análisis…

  4. Mat

    Siderar (le dicen la momia) pero bien que les dio refugio a muchos en estos días tétricos para el mercado…Máxime después de traer tan buen balance en un contexto recesivo!

  5. LAS1976

    Vendí SAMI por temor a que gane un populista como Trump y tire para atrás la apertura de importaciones de limones, etc. Finalmente recuperó muy bien, pero no vuelvo a comprar limones hasta después de las elecciones de USA.

      • LAS1976

        Mañana terminó de liquidar una puntita de SAMI que me quedo. Espero que a mejores precios que los de hoy, donde perdí la sangre fría y salí a liquidar bastante bajo pensando que todos hacían el mismo análisis que yo y que se iba la accion a la merde.

    • Pablo

      A riesgo de decir una boludez atómica, Macri tiene muy buena relacion con Trump, por negocios de papá Franco, no creo que se mande una asi. Con esto concluye mi pensamiento naif del día.

      • LAS1976

        Alguna relación de ocasión tuvieron, es verdad. Los k tuvieron una mucho mayor con los Eskenasi, con los Báez, etc. Ahora no…- Trump se debe al electorado que lo vota, a los productores de limones de la Florida y California que veran peligrar sus ganancias por la competencia de productores del tercer mundo, etc. No me parece que la relación sea tan profunda para ir en contra de su base electoral. Es un populista al que le importa un corno un empresario de un país del tercer mundo que a la sazón oficia de presidente.

      • LAS1976

        En verdad las únicas acciones que me preocupan ante un triunfo de Trump son San Miguel e Inversora Juramento, y alguna otra menos importante. Sobre las energéticas y las de construcción no encuentro mayores riesgos, tampoco agrometal. Es tanto lo que hay que invertir si o si en esos sectores que sólo pueden ir para arriba. Hay que aprovechar ahora para comprar.

  6. LAS1976

    Maestro Tavares, que impacto puede tener en la cotizacion de Boldt la licitacion que haria la provincia sobre los casinos que explota actualmente la empresa? Entiendo que es un riesgo grande. No pudo negociar una prorroga de la concesion como hizo con los anteriores gobiernos y ahora se enfrenta a una licitacion publica con la intervencion de competidores directos (CODERE, etc.). No se cuando se haria la licitacion, pero salio publicada en Perfil y en otros diarios. Me llama la atencion la solidez del papel a pesar de esta noticia.

    • Mat

      Parece que se sabe de antemano que la mejor oferta la va a hacer Boldt. Cincuenta mil nominales de compra en los últimos diez minutos…timba?
      Yo estoy haciéndome las mismas preguntas que vos Las1976. Sigo al papel hace rato.

      • LAS1976

        Me fui de Boldt apenas leí la noticia. Parece que todos los casinos los pone en juego Boldt y no creo que la tenga nada facil. De movida el amigote de Macri (Angelici) por lo menos tendría que mordisquearle uno o dos casinos. Para qué vson los amigos!

        • Mat

          Vos lo ves tan fácil?
          Me temo que regalaste papeles. Igual te entiendo, estos dias estamos todos angustiados y hacemos análisis muy superficiales. Si bien son concesiones por decreto, la única empresa con capacidad tecnológica y logística para operar esos casinos es Boldt. Angelici está muy lejos.

          • Mat

            La solidez de un papel en semejante sangría no te indica nada? Ojo que las cosas no son porque sí. Esta baja del mercado no fue por si acaso. Once ruedas seguidas al alza merecían una corrección a toda máquina.

        • Mat

          Las1976: los contratos vencen recién en Marzo. Mientras se puede dar lo de la legalización del juego en Brasil, que es expectativa mas que nada, porque no significa negocios automáticos para la empresa, pero son claramente potenciales en el mediano plazo. Y acá se paga el potencial de cada basura…

          • LAS1976

            Mat: Fijate que el casino que explotan los gastronomicos de Barrionuevo no lo tocan. Ese no entra en la licitacion a pesar de estar en condiciones de licitarse. A los sindicalistas contemporizadores no se los jode.

  7. Petysuar

    Otra jornada dura, remontando al final. Hasta el 8N no creo que cambie el panorama. Algun rebote tal vez mañana. Yo desarme mitad de cartera para proteger capital y entrar a menores precios. El tema es que Trump mete miedo en serio. Nadie podria imaginar las medidas que podria llegar a tomar si es presidente.

  8. ELIO

    Unos compran porque otros venden y visceversa, lo cierto es que hoy vendí lo que la mayoría no vendería priorizando corta recuperación.
    Si Javier también la valoro a BPAT es una de las que mas tengo y junto con BRIO y BHIP los únicos bancos que me quedan. Hoy justamente vendí parte de BPAT PAMP BRIO AGRO que no bajaron tanto y las que mas ganancia tenía y apostando a la rápida recuperación de otras. Compre más JMIN CECO2 FERR GARO METR OEST y algo de CEPU. Es una apuesta veremos como sale. Me dolió en el alma venderlas primeras pero si sale bien repongo enseguida.
    Hoy no me quise quedar de brazos cruzados buscando de acelerar la recuperación para cuando arranque, hay que definir una línea y respetarla. Me hubiese gustado algo de GRIM ESME SAMI veremos mañana como sigue.

  9. SIRTHOMASMORE

    CORRECCIÓN. No vendí nada de RV. Debo haber desayunado con Gin Tonic, pero liquidé una parte de mi AY24, y aposte por las empresas que me gustan: más de SAMI, INVJ, CTIO, BRIO, ERAR, PAMP… A matar o morir. El rebote de mañana que debería ser obvio -Dios te escuche Cmda PEPE-, espero permita reacomodarse y quedarse con una buena parte en cash a esperar oportunidades. De sangría permanente viene la mano hasta que se resuelva el pleito en USA… Veremos colegas, qué pasa.

  10. Daniel M

    Sigo siempre este sitio aunque sospechando una baja me pasé a bonos hace unos días,me considero un aficionado o poco sofisticado y no opero con opciones.Me sorprende que además de seguir comprando papeles con poca liquidez no tengan ninguna estrategia de compra de puts ,collar o lo que permita atenuar una baja en los del merval.Me parece que compran acciones como si fueran coleccionistas,el largo plazo no siempre funciona.Lo digo por experiencia porque cuando los papeles subieron mucho en poco tiempo las bajas son generales.No lo digo por tirar mala onda ni para influir porque soy uno más del montón,y pienso volver a las acciones cuando pase el temporal.Sería importante que el Sr.Tavares haga mañana alguna reflexión sobre como comportarse en estos temporales.

  11. ruben

    Mañana rebota todo…!!!
    Pampa papel de la puta madre….!!! Que pedazo de volumen viene metiendo en todas las ruedas…!!!

  12. ALB

    Adeeeeentro en varios pelpas , incrementamos SAMI CADO CEPU me saltó el stop en ceco y con lo ganado ahí , adeeeeentro compre mas CEPU, tambien aproveché y compre algo de INVj no llevé mas porque me quedé sin un peso

  13. Maxi

    En una situación como esta, no es más rentable comprar calls en vez de papeles? Porq si compras papeles es Porq estas muy seguro que va asubir. Entonces comprando calls ganarías mas.
    Yo por ejemplo quería comprar apbr. Pero no tenía suficiente plata. Entonces compre calls por 1000 lotes. Después si sube mucho, ejerzo vendiendo otros papeles. Y aumento notoriamente mi posición en apbr arriesgando poco en comparación a si hubiera puesto toda la tarasca de una.
    Se entiende? Me entienden? Bueno!

    • Iceman2016

      Quiero pensar que no te comiste ese verso no? Esto es tan creíble como que los americanos vayan a publicar los planos y secretos de su últimas armas furtivas. Que ingenuo el que crea que le van a regalar la máquina de hacer plata.
      Eso sí, como sueño es genial.

      • ELIO

        je je todavía no, muy versero el articulo pero no deja de ser tentador intentarlo, no es el target de vida al que uno apunta, muy Jordan Belfort, pero no esta nada mal el yate ese ja ja ja, aunque sea un ford Mustang me conformo, no solo comprarlo sino mantenerlo es lo que me preocupa

        • Iceman2016

          A partir de ahora te considero un amigo !! Soy fanatico del Mustang, tengo unos 300 a escala jajaja todavía no puedo llegar al real, pero cada vez que viajo alquilo uno. A partir de ese momento estoy entregado porque lo que marque mi jermu en el GPS para mí está bien, contar de montar al potro hago cualquier cosa jaja.

  14. Javier Aguirre

    Huuuummm no se que decirte , lo único que me gustó son las chicas tomando sol , eso si . Nos vemos Javier.Y un Consejo Descansen así pueden pensar mejor al otro día ya que veo las horas de posteo y es que no duermen bien muchachos Ojo con esto!!!!

    • Iceman2016

      Jaja es verdad, andamos con insomnio? Yo me levanto a las 06.00 porque los canarios ya se ponen insoportables y quieren que los destape. Nada, sólo un toque de color.
      Buen día para todos y buena bolsa también.

  15. Hoy posiblemente suba, al ritmo del petroleo. No hay q olvidarse q el petroleo FLOTA LIBREMENTE, y hay q esperar, los BALANCES.
    Esta manana O Granados, dijo q las grandes obras publicas, estan atrasadas y todavia no arrancan, porque , quieren las financien TOTALMENTE LOS PRIVADOS, y despues cobrarlas, muy dificil.
    Lo positivo, CERRO BIEN CHINA ( Materias primas)

  16. Tavares
    Author

    Hoy están dadas las condiciones para el rebote. Petróleo y mercados para arriba (son las 9,44). Agrometal: Esperando su 3er trimestre muy bueno. Lógicos vaivenes
    Pampa: Muy firme pese a todo
    Boldt: Veo compras de inversores avezados
    La foto: Hacer la plancha ante los vaivenes, incluso algunos demasiado exagerados

  17. ELIO

    Que hermoso jardín para empezar, pero por que siembre la garcha de CAPU a contramano, mas de un 6% de diferencia en la variación con DYCA, que bárbaro, una 2 abajo la otra 4 arriba en el arranque…

    • ELIO

      OVOP querido, mirandote de cerca, queda un poco de corrección para poder entrarte de nuevo, me gusta a $18, igual es un poco alevoso las ordenes de $40, pero bueno hay que comprender a los que entraron a $33, de todos modos va queriendo…muy razonable el valor actual, por ahora hay otras prioridades pero guarda el pomo con esta a corto. Y si bien no hay que encandilarse con el rebote de hoy nunca deja de sorprender la velocidad de reacción que tiene nuestra querida bolsa para seguir con la verdadera tendencia.

    • Ariel

      La mató el mismo dueño , en el momento que todo subía y Dyca voló , este se dedicaba a vender papelitos sin avisar.Todos los días se ve como la tiran para abajo , es muy obvio el manejo.Estoy adentro y vivo pensando que hacer, uno se enseguece viendo la otra llegar hasta 45 pesos con mucho o poco volumen

      • Ariel

        Estoy convencido que tarde o temprano el precio se acomoda, el tema es el costo de oportunidad que se va perdiendo, pero bueno la elección es de uno

        • ELIO

          Si Ariel es cierto lo que decís, yo también adentro esperando que aunque sea recupere para seguir vendiendo, porque ya me desprendí de la mitad de lo que llegue a tener un par de mese atrás, en mi caso rara vez llega al 10% un papel, salvo JMIN actualmente pisando ese porcentaje, pero con CAPU no pasa nada, aunque a largo plazo seguro tiene que ser buena inversión.

  18. Caperuzita

    Que pelotudo el que pensó que hoy cambiaba todo.
    Esto continúa hasta fin de diciembre. Mierda se va a hacer todo. Merval va a tocar los 1100/1000.
    Se los aseguro, mis polluelos!

  19. Guillermo Eduardo

    Estimado Ariel creo que a ninguno de los 2 , la diferencia que acà son 50 candidatos para presidentes de distintos partidos y a su vez ellos respetan las Instituciones cosa que nosotros nos cagamos en ellas.-
    EEUU tiene politicas de estado y no importa el partido que gobierne .-
    A mi modesto entender TRUMP es el nuevo presidente , parece que està de moda los cambios en la polìtica y se pudrieron de los politicos y estàn queriendo otra cosa , algo màs dinamico.-
    Lo ùnico que pido que a nosotros no nos afecte tanto porque nuestro gobierno se habìa encolumnado atràs de Clinton por las dudas ya Malcorra empezò hacer comentarios de la posiblidad de que gane Trump.-
    Abrazo
    Guillermo Eduardo

    • Ariel

      Gracias Guillermo. Sí lo de Macri fue para quedar bien con Obama , después por abajo se queda bien con todos. Es como los empresarios que aportan a la campaña de todos los candidatos. Acá escucho que todos quieren que gane Clinton, pero para mi Trump es el pensamiento del «yanqui » y todos dicen que es un impresentable y demás , para mi de loco no tiene nada

  20. Desaparece la Guerra Fria, a acostumbrarse al barril barato en los proximos 4 anos, menos gastos militares, menos impuestos para los ciudadanos yanquis.
    Y quien Dice, si somos amigos de Trump y de Putin, que nos DEVUELVAN LAS MALVINAS.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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