SE AMPLIA EL MENU DE LOS DOLLAR-LINKED

 

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En la semana el gobierno colocó un nuevo bono con el doble objetivo de obtener financiamiento para sus gastos corrientes y sacar pesos del sistema financiero para que no se vuelquen a activos en dólares. De recurrir al Banco Central, como es costumbre, generaría una presión sobre el dólar que por ahora el gobierno prefiere mantener controlado. La emisión ocurre en un momento además bastante particular, en el que los grandes inversores están considerando con mucha más seriedad la inversión en títulos atados al dólar oficial.

Ante la inexistencia de impedimentos cambiarios, como el actual cepo, cobrar un bono en dólares o en pesos equivalentes suele ser relativamente indistinto para el inversor. Por caso, desde el 2003 al 2011 nadie estaba estrictamente preocupado en si cobraba dólares o el equivalente en pesos. La irrupción del cepo cambiario despertó al león dormido de la demanda de billetes de dólar y las subsiguientes distorsiones hicieron nacer a los bonos atados al dólar oficial como alternativa de financiamiento para empresas y provincias. Recién el mes pasado el estado nacional hizo la primera emisión de este tipo de instrumento.

En definitiva, los grandes inversores ya están contando con un nuevo gobierno que unifique los tipos de cambio en el 2016. Con un bono atado al dólar, se compraría el equivalente a cierta cantidad de dólares cotizados al cambio oficial y al vencimiento se recibirán pesos al cambio oficial, con la salvedad de que en el futuro eventualmente esos pesos podrían llegar a ser genuinamente equivalentes al dólar libre, mientras que actualmente no lo es.

El nuevo bono que emitió el gobierno tiene un cupón del 2,4% anual, pagaderoo cada 6 meses los 18 de marzo y 18 de septiembre. Devolverá enteramente el capital en marzo del 2018 y su código será probablemente AM18. Sin embargo es posible que cuando cotice en la bolsa lo haga a un precio mayor que 100 dólares al cambio oficial, con lo cual su rendimiento será menor. De todas maneras, el atractivo de este tipo de instrumentos es que tienen una ganancia latente equivalente a toda la brecha cambiaria actual, sumada a la devaluación que haya de aquí hasta la unificación de los tipos de cambio.

La situación descrita inicialmente, sumado a la recesión que golpea la disponibilidad de pesos de las personas y las empresas, afectaron la demanda de dólares en todas sus formas (tanto el dólar ahorro como el informal o el “contado con liquidación” de la bolsa). Ello aún a pesar de los controles sobre los operadores de cambios, tanto legales como ilegales, que encarecen el precio del dólar por la mayor dificultad para conseguirlos.

El desincentivo del dólar puede continuar ocurriendo en el corto plazo, pero no por ello deja de ser recomendable la exposición en títulos en dólares con alto rendimiento al tiempo que progresivamente se vayan adquiriendo más bonos en pesos atados al dólar oficial. De los nuevos bonos licitados, el AO16 cumple mejor con las expectativas al tener un vencimiento cercano a la eventual unificación cambiaria.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 16.11.2014

 

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  216. I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the page layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  217. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  222. With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of unique content I’ve either written myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know any ways to help stop content from being stolen? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  253. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.|

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  257. When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Many thanks!

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  268. Yesterday, while I was at work, my sister stole my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  269. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  296. Today, I went to the beachfront with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  312. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.

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  357. This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

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