REVIVE EL APETITO POR EL DOLAR

 

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Transcurrida una extraña semana al no haber especulaciones sobre acuerdos privados, el mercado comenzó a interpretar que el asunto de los fondos buitre va para largo. Desde un principio se esperaba que el gobierno entrara en la situación de default y negociara en enero (directamente o a través de un tercero, una vez vencida las RUFO), aunque ahora se teme que ni siquiera en ese entonces se dé una salida al conflicto, por lo que ahora se abren muchos interrogantes.

En primer lugar hay que contrapesar el deseo de no negociar que tiene el gobierno con la necesidad de hacerlo. Durante el año el Central se vio obligado a devaluar y subir las tasas de interés frente a la insuficiencia del superávit comercial que mermaba continuamente las reservas. Por ello se dio un giro importante también desde economía con un intento de retorno al financiamiento externo, para lo que se sinceraron parcialmente las estadísticas y se arregló con el CIADI, con el Club de París y con Repsol. Es de destacar que el gobierno dio muestras de poder llegar a acuerdos si lo desea, puesto que todos los conflictos de larga data se resolvieron rápido no bien se adoptó la decisión política de hacerlo.

En segundo lugar, amén del poco deseo de tener que acordar con los fondos buitre para poder reactivar la economía sin presión sobre las reservas, el gobierno podría encontrarse, llegado enero, con problemas administrativos importantes que compliquen una rápida resolución: la aceleración de las series del canje. Si los bonistas reestructurados llegaran a reclamar la aceleración de vencimientos por los títulos impagos, se requerirá una complejidad adicional para solucionar el conflicto donde se debería pagarle (negociado o no) a los fondos buitre para ver luego cómo desacelerar las series juntando el 50% del remanente de cada serie acelerada.

Por lo pronto, el escenario se mantiene relativamente tranquilo mientras que los bonistas no comiencen a reclamar la aceleración. Los tenedores institucionales locales, de momento, intimaron más bien al Bank of New York (BONY) para que curse los pagos, aunque se trata más de una movida para realizar un reclamo congraciándose con el gobierno que para lograr obtener el pago de los bonos adeudados.

Por los temores existentes, los inversores se han volcado nuevamente al dólar, ya sin temor de que un eventual acuerdo deprima la cotización de la divisa. También comenzaron a resurgir lentamente los títulos vinculados al dólar oficial frente a la visión de que el gobierno necesitará de una devaluación más fuerte para sostener las reservas. En estos momentos los títulos cotizan a rendimientos importantes, en especial los de la Provincia de Mendoza al 2018, rondando el 8% anual más la devaluación oficial, muy lejos de los rendimientos negativos vistos durante los últimos meses de Marcó del Pont al frente del Banco Central. Si bien no son dólares efectivos sino pesos al cambio oficial, son una interesante oportunidad de diversificación y cuentan también con un importante atractivo para el año que viene si se vislumbra una apertura oficial de la cotización cambiaria.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 17.8.2014

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