RESURGEN LOS BONOS ATADOS AL DOLAR

 

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Las expectativas devaluatorias alimentaron la demanda de títulos en dólares pero también de los “dólar-linked”.

Desde la instauración del control de cambios en octubre 2011 comenzaron lentamente a hacerse populares las emisiones de deuda, tanto de empresas como de gobiernos provinciales y municipales, en pesos atados al dólar oficial. Hasta entonces sólo un provincial funcionaba bajo esa modalidad (Provincia de Córdoba 2017), indistinta para los inversores. Los instrumentos “dólar-linked” comenzaron a hacerse atractivos a partir del 2012, cuando las reservas del Banco Central comenzaron a mermar y se esperaba que tarde o temprano hubiera –como finalmente ocurrió- una corrección del tipo de cambio oficial para que la autoridad monetaria pudiera recomponer divisas.

La devaluación de enero, con la posterior caída de las expectativas devaluatorias (el mercado compró la idea de un dólar planchado hasta junio), mostró que estos instrumentos sirven como cobertura del dólar hasta que se dispara. Es decir, mientras suba escalonadamente. En términos de cotización, un título que cotizaba a 106 dólares en diciembre, o 690 pesos, pasó a cotizar 95 dólares en febrero, o 750 pesos. Una suba de 8,7% frente a una devaluación de 21,3%. En términos de tas implícita de rendimiento (TIR), lo que ocurrió fue que los títulos que rendían a tasas negativas (devaluación oficial menos 3%) pasaron a rendir fuertes tasas positivas (devaluación oficial más 10%) por la idea de que el dólar no iba a devaluarse más al menos por un tiempo.

Recientemente, las expectativas de devaluación esperadas para el segundo semestre parecieran haberse adelantado en función del panorama monetario: el Banco Central redujo las tasas de interés en 2%, la compra de dólares de la balanza comercial inyecta liquidez, y principalmente el déficit fiscal continúa acrecentándose y financiado con emisión monetaria. De no conseguir dólares del exterior, no es de extrañar que el combo expansivo produzca una fuerte presión sobre la divisa norteamericana a pesar de los esfuerzos iniciales de Fábrega para reducir la liquidez de pesos.

Los defensores de las inversiones “dólar-link” esgrimen menor volatilidad que el dólar, a lo que hay que adicionar que, ante un escenario de convergencias de tipos de cambio luego del 2015, el dólar oficial tiene más para subir que el dólar bolsa. Por el otro lado, el dólar “puro” ofrece mayores perspectivas en el corto plazo y es más valorado que otros instrumentos financieros.

Lo que sí hay que tener en cuenta respecto de los títulos “dólar-link” es que no hay emisiones del estado nacional, que es quien determina la política monetaria y cambiaria. En algunos casos, los emisores decidieron aprovechar la “moda” del momento y han quedado atrapados en una deuda que les salió más cara de lo que planeaban. Entre las provincias que poseen títulos en circulación se encuentran la Ciudad de Buenos Aires y las provincias de Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Mendoza, Neuquén, Chubut, Entre Ríos, Formosa, Tucumán y Chaco. De todas ellas, sólo Mendoza, Neuquén y Chubut poseen ingresos directamente vinculados al dólar oficial, que son las regalías por la explotación petrolífera, y por ello resultan las más cubiertas como deudoras ante variaciones cambiarias.

Eduardo Cardenal, IECO, Clarín, 25.5.2014

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