RESURGE EL CUPON PBI

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Para los tenedores de cupones PBI ya parece lejano el fatídico 27 de marzo, fecha en la que se anunció entre gallos y medianoche un crecimiento del 3% para el 2013 a partir de la nueva metodología que introdujo el INDEC. La caída en la medición del crecimiento evidenció la intención del gobierno de no pagar el cupón correspondiente por el 2013, cuyas condiciones de emisión requerían –para gatillarse- un 3,22% de crecimiento del PBI. La maniobra golpeó con dureza en la cotización de los títulos, llegando a caer entre el 30% y el 50% en tan solo un día. Sin embargo, por suerte para quienes no vendieron, los precios se recuperaron parcialmente desde entonces, empujados inicialmente por el efecto que produciría el nuevo monto del PBI en el próximo pago, sea la fecha que fuere.

Así, a pesar de estar casi descartado un pago en diciembre de este año, el cupón en euros ya cotiza a valores superiores a € 8,60, es decir, más que el 26 de marzo (cuando se creía que se iba a pagar). Los de dólares aún necesitan de un trecho para alcanzar la cotización de US$ 9,60 de esa fecha, y el que más lejos se encuentra es el de pesos, porque el tiempo hasta el próximo pago golpea más fuerte en el de pesos por obvias razones (la gran inflación interna).

A modo de resumen, el cupón PBI es un título que se ofreció en los canjes de 2005 y 2010, merced al cual se pagaría todos los años una suma determinada bajo 3 condiciones: que la suma de pagos no supere 48 (de acuerdo a la moneda del cupón), que supere el PBI “base” o teórico y que el crecimiento del PBI sea superior al crecimiento del PBI “base”. Es decir, se trazaba una senda de crecimiento teórica y si se superaba tanto en monto como en crecimiento año a año se iría devolviendo la quita promedio a la deuda reestructurada que se implementó en el canje (48%).

Los motivos para el fuerte crecimiento de cotización de estos activos son principalmente dos. Por un lado, el ya mencionado efecto sobre el próximo pago. La idea es que el incremento en el monto del PBI haría que la fórmula de los cupones agrande el pago y por lo tanto acelere el repago de los 48. Por otro lado, también se verían beneficiados por cerrar el capítulo del “default”. Si Argentina finaliza su litigio con los fondos buitre, podría volver a acceder al financiamiento internacional a tasas mucho más convenientes. Podría entonces recomponer sus reservas, reducir la presión cambiaria, estimular inversiones y, por sobre todo, desarrollar el complejo de Vaca Muerta. Si a ello le sumamos el estado de recesión actual y la mayor capacidad industrial ociosa, las chances de superar un 3% de crecimiento del PBI en el 2015 y por lo tanto cobrar en el 2016 aumentarían considerablemente.

Sin embargo, el primer punto mencionado aún no está del todo claro, ya que es muy distinto el cálculo dependiendo de cómo se termine empalmando la vieja serie de PBI y la nueva. Es posible tener que esperar hasta septiembre para conocer cómo se implementará la modificación. Una vez definido esto, los rendimientos históricamente atractivos de estos instrumentos son más que interesantes para que aquellos inversores con mayor apetito de riesgo y rendimiento le asignen una porción de su patrimonio.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 13.7.2014

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