RENDIMIENTOS ENTRE 7% Y 9%

 

La suba de los bonos en dólares y la alta inflación esperada emparejan los rendimientos.

 

Durante la semana se conoció un resultado favorable para el Banco Central y por lo tanto, para el gobierno, ya que logró hacerse de buena cantidad de dólares del comercio exterior sin necesidad de devaluar más para incentivar a los exportadores. Las reservas volvieron a superar el piso de U$S 27.000 millones y continuó alejando las expectativas devaluatorias. En el mercado financiero esperan una situación tranquila hasta julio, y a partir de ahí comenzará a observarse con mayor detenimiento la situación del dólar.

En materia de bonos, la seguidilla de noticias positivas llevaron a los títulos nacionales en dólares a ubicarse con rendimientos o TIR entre el 9% y el 11% anual, siendo el de más bajo rendimiento el Boden 2015 y el de mayor rendimiento el Discount en dólares con ley de Nueva York. Los guarismos continúan siendo muy elevados en relación a las tasas internacionales, aunque en los últimos dos años fue el piso de TIR de los bonos soberanos argentinos.

Sin embargo, en el mercado se percibe con cierta delicadeza la situación actual. Por lo pronto, antes que especulaciones sobre el dólar, la espada de Damocles de los títulos será la decisión de la Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos con respecto a los “holdouts” y sus reclamos de pago de los bonos en default desde el 2001. La reunión de la Corte para decidir si acepta o rechaza el caso se espera para la última semana de abril, y un rechazo podría poner en serios problemas el pago de los bonos del canje.

Por ese motivo, otros bonos que se presenten más ajenas al litigio deben ser considerados y no necesariamente implican un menor rendimiento. Por supuesto que una resolución que ponga a prueba la deuda soberana impactará en todas las inversiones, pero algunos bonos deberían cobrarse sin problema. Tal es el caso de los bonos ajustables por CER, porque son inversiones en pesos, o los bonos provinciales, ya que el conflicto es con la Nación únicamente.

Respecto a los primeros, resulta clave evaluar la credibilidad del nuevo índice de precios nacional urbano (IPCNu), que se conocerá nuevamente el próximo martes. La credibilidad del cambio del INDEC fue puesta a prueba luego del volantazo en materia de crecimiento para evitar el pago del cupón PBI. A pesar de ello, el IPCNu se encuentra algo más monitoreado por el FMI, institución que el gobierno quiere ganarse nuevamente al menos por el momento. En caso de publicar un índice creíble y mantener esa ruta (por lo pronto superior al 2% para marzo), los títulos como el PR13 o el Discount en pesos podrían ser inversiones que superen la inflación el resto del año.

Finalmente, los títulos de la provincia de Buenos Aires como el BDED (vence en 2017) y el BPMD (vence en 2020), tienen rendimientos superiores a los títulos nacionales y en caso de haber un conflicto de la deuda, no tendrían por qué no seguir pagando. Incluso estos títulos contemplan que la provincia no pueda adquirir dólares y le establecen el mecanismo del “contado con liquidación” para conseguirlos en última instancia.

Eduardo Cardenal. Nota publicada en IECO, Clarín

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