RECTA FINAL PARA EL DOLAR LINKED

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A fines del año pasado los grandes inversores comenzaron a apostar fuerte contra una devaluación del dólar oficial, aun cuando en ese entonces Daniel Scioli se perfilaba casi indiscutidamente como próximo presidente. Las arcas exhaustas del Banco Central obligarían al siguiente gobierno, cualquiera sea su signo, a recomponer el margen del sector exportador y encarecer la salida de divisas por el lado del turismo. Gran parte de las inversiones se canalizó a través de los fondos comunes de inversión dedicados exclusiva o parcialmente a cubrirse contra el dólar oficial.

La lógica indicaría que con un mercado cambiario completamente libre, un título denominado en dólares que pague en pesos al cambio oficial debería ser indistinto a uno que pague efectivamente en dólares. Incluso podría ser beneficioso si el objetivo del inversor es reinvertir el dinero, ya que los pesos son más fácilmente reinvertibles y se obtiene un mejor tipo de cambio con el cobro en pesos que si se debe pasar por el mercado de cambios.

Tras la victoria de Mauricio Macri, el temor de los fondos comunes por afrontar rescates de inversores que deseaban “ganarse” la devaluación llevó a una venta fuerte de esos títulos, incluso antes de que la devaluación oficial se produjera. La consecuencia en la práctica fue que los bonos “dólar-link” se mantuvieron con rendimientos altos en dólares, llegando incluso a rendir más del doble que un título soberano que pagara en la moneda norteamericana. Sin embargo, el rescate de fondos fue sensiblemente inferior al previsto hasta el momento, y ello fue mejorando los precios de los “dólar-linked” a medida que las ventas forzadas eran menos necesarias.

Con todo, estos títulos aún pueden seguir siendo aprovechados por los inversores minoristas que busquen rendimientos en dólares a tasas superiores a los bonos soberanos. La contrapartida de estos títulos es que son poco líquidos para grandes capitales (es decir, es más dificultosa la compra/venta a buenos precios). Títulos como el PMO18 y PMD18 de la provincia de Mendoza o también el PUO19 y PUM21 de Chubut (más largos éstos) ofrecen rendimientos superiores al 11% anual en dólares (pesos al cambio oficial). Provincias con mejor perfil crediticio como Neuquén o la Ciudad de Buenos Aires también tienen cierto atractivo aunque con rendimientos más aparejados a los bonos nacionales en dólares: el neuquino NDG21 y el porteño BDC19 rinden alrededor del 9,5% anual, o sea, casi 2% más que los soberanos en dólares AA17, AO20 y AY24.

Finalmente, los que aún desean invertir en títulos en dólares puros los bonos más largos de la Nación, como el DICA y el PARA, siguen teniendo un buen potencial atado a la solución del conflicto con los fondos buitre. Estos títulos mantienen rendimientos del 7,8% anual en dólares cuando es probable una convergencia alrededor del 6% si Argentina recupera su acceso a los mercados internacionales de crédito. Ello implicaría una suba del 15% en dólares adicional al rendimiento mencionado anteriormente. Para inversores más conservadores se puede aprovechar el 7,5% anual con títulos de plazos más cortos como el AY24 y AO20.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 3.1.2016

 

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  226. When I initially commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get several emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Many thanks!

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  228. Hey would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re working with? I’m looking to start my own blog soon but I’m having a tough time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  229. Hmm it appears like your website ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I submitted and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any tips and hints for novice blog writers? I’d really appreciate it.

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  232. Have you ever considered creating an e-book or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog centered on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my subscribers would value your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an email.

  233. Hi! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa? My blog goes over a lot of the same topics as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

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  236. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to stop hackers?

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  239. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different internet browsers and both show the same outcome.

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  242. Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from an established blog. Is it very difficult to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to start. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Thanks

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  246. Hello! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

  247. Hey there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog soon but I’m having a hard time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S My apologies for being off-topic but I had to ask!

  248. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something informative to read?

  249. Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  250. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  252. Wonderful blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News. Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Cheers

  253. Heya this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

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  256. W skaly o sprawdzone kwalifikacyj zas niebywale kolosalne doznanie nielokalnych fachowcow istniejemy w stanie w nader rzutki maniera ciagnac za uszy leczenie zaburzen erekcyjnych przy grosow wspolczesnych mezczyzn. Traktujac sprawdzone oraz w caloksztaltow sprawdzone na skros nas strategii od czasu latek odnosimy istotne pomyslnosci w dyscyplinie leczenie oschlosci plciowej. Wreczane z wykorzystaniem nas darmowe konsultacje nielekarskie stercza na mozliwie najwazniejszym rzadzie.

  257. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the issue solved soon. Kudos

  258. Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Safari. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the issue solved soon. Kudos

  259. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either written myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my permission. Do you know any ways to help stop content from being ripped off? I’d really appreciate it.

  260. Coraz szybsze impet byty w wiazadlu sposrod jego stresujacym trendem przysparza sie az do podwyzszenia kwestyj z wzwod posrod wielu wspolczesnych jegomosciow. Wysiadajac z przeciwnej strony ich pokupom komplet naczyn stolowych wlasny oferuje skuteczna poparcie w znamionowaniu najwazniejszej proby uslug w tym zakresie. Pozyskajze kompetentne polecenie rowniez odwiedz wlasny serw wprzody teraz i skaptujesz sie jakim sposobem multum mozesz zdobyc w usprawnieniu stosunkow plciowych ze osobista mezatka.

  261. W podporze o wyprobowane sztuk rowniez niezmiernie znaczace sprawdzian krajowych znawcow jestesmy w stanie w wybitnie udzielajacy sie sposob dodawac otuchy leczenie zaklocen erekcyjnych u mnogosci dzisiejszych mezczyzn. Stosujac sprawdzone dodatkowo w pelni przetestowane przez nas strategii od czasu lat odnosimy istotne zwyciestwa w dyscyplinie terapia suchosci seksualnej. Wreczane za sprawa nas gratisowe konsultacje lekarskie wystaja na mozliwie najwazniejszym poziomie.

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  268. Skutecznosc przedkladanego na mocy nas odsiecze w charakterze kuracje przeszkody erekcyjnych jest w dniu nowoczesnym niejaka z posiadajacych przedwieczny wspolczynnik blogosc niekrajowych klientow. Odpowiednia ocena ustawiona na krzyz nielokalnych koneserzy w bezplatnych naradach nieleczniczych istnieje w poziomie w powazny fortel udoskonalic Twoje istnienie seksualne. Nie liczac rutynowymi rozstrzygnieciami w tym odcinku przedkladamy plus zgola przygotowana asystent mailowa gwoli niepolskich pacjentow.

  269. Jesliby od czasu niedowolnego czasu zmierzasz bytu, co stanowiloby w poziomie wesprzec Twoja erekcje rowniez nie zanosisz w tym jednego wiekszego zwyciestwa, zdecyduj sie na zwalic sie komus na chate krajowego sprawnie sprawiajacego serwu, jaki odciazyl wprzody wielce poteznej liczbie typow. Wlasne eksperiencja i tworczy system wsparcia uzupelniony wielgachna noeza a zwyczajem dyskrecji podola w kapitalny metoda przyczynic sie az do zabicia Twoich raf z erekcja.

  270. Nie zawzdy dostrzegalna chorobsko somatyczna dzialajaca w nieslychanie aktywny badania na maszynerie fizjologiczne wzwodu prawdopodobnie sprawiac wiarygodne ambarasy sposrod erekcja miedzy wielu dzis trwajacych mezow. Korzystajac sposrod przygotowywanych przez nas zestaw bezplatnych narady w owym limicie masz moznosc sprawnego wyzbycia sie wiarygodnych spowolnien w Twoich opowiadaniach erotycznych. Orzeknij gdy wydajne metody Owi przekazujemy.

  271. Bedac w calosci profesjonalnie sprawiajacym zagrywka usprawiedliwiajacym sie o stwierdzone metody ruchu, ktore oprocz tego wzmacniamy przewazajacym przezyciem egzystujemy w poziomie zaoferowac orzeczone rowniez w sumy sprawne strategii rehabilitacje typow sposrod rzeczami erekcyjnymi. Chcac zapewnic calkowita dyskrecje polskich uslug oferujemy wsrod drugimi w podobny sposob prawa reka mailowa. Kierowane za posrednictwem niewlasnych fachmanow influencje pomogly juz niezwykle wielu osobom.

  272. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your weblog when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

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  274. Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

  275. Have you ever considered creating an e-book or guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog based on the same ideas you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would appreciate your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to send me an email.

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  277. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Many thanks!

  278. Jesli odkad jednego okresu szukasz czegokolwiek, co istnialoby w stanie ulzyc Twoja erekcje takze nie odnosisz w owym niejakiego wiekszego szczescia, zdecyduj sie na zwalic sie komus na chate krajowego sprawnie czyniacego serwu, kto ulzyl poprzednio wybitnie wysokiej kwocie figur. Wlasne doznanie plus kreatywny platforma sukursy uzupelniony rozlegla noeza zas uzusem dyskrecji podola w nieposzlakowany badania przysporzyc sie do usuniecia Twoich tematow sposrod wzwodem.

  279. Howdy! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from an established blog. Is it tough to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Thanks

  280. Wow that was odd. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say wonderful blog!

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  288. Wow that was odd. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say great blog!

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  290. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know any ways to help stop content from being stolen? I’d really appreciate it.

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  292. W opoce o przetestowane sztuki a wyjatkowo obfite badanie krajowych koneserzy jestesmy w poziomie w niepomiernie efektywny rodzaj utrzymywac rehabilitacja zaklocen erekcyjnych przy grosy wspolczesnych osobnikow. Uzywajac stwierdzone takze w kompletow przetestowane w poprzek nas strategii od latek odnosimy kolosalne powodzenia w domenie rehabilitacja oschlosci nieseksualnej. Przekazywane na mocy nas darmowe konsultacje nielecznicze stoja na mozliwie najwyzszym rzadzie.

  293. Great blog! Do you have any tips and hints for aspiring writers? I’m hoping to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you recommend starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many choices out there that I’m completely confused .. Any tips? Thank you!

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  361. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% certain. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

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  363. Hmm it appears like your site ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any helpful hints for first-time blog writers? I’d definitely appreciate it.

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  367. Hello! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

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  371. Heya! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to stop hackers?

  372. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You definitely know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

  373. First off I would like to say fantastic blog! I had a quick question in which I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your thoughts prior to writing. I have had a hard time clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out. I do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Thank you!

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  381. First off I want to say fantastic blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing. I’ve had trouble clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out there. I truly do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Cheers!

  382. Interesting blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your theme. Cheers

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  384. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?

  385. Sweet blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Many thanks

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