REBOTE DE TASAS

bounce-rate

 

 

 

La absorción monetaria le costó al Banco Central reconocer una pequeña alza en las tasas de licitación de las Letras que emite todos los miércoles. Las tasas de largo plazo continuaron redujéndose, pero el volumen de absorción está determinado por los tramos más cortos que marcaron una suba. El vencimiento no fue nada menor: el 17 de febrero vencían más de AR$ 40.000 millones que fueron renovados completamente y absorbidos unos AR$ 10.000 adicionales.

La absorción de la autoridad monetaria se hizo sentir en el mercado de dinero local, y los bancos rápidamente debieron pagar más cara la liquidez de corto plazo. Esto hace prever que la licitación de Letras del martes próximo será más dura para el BCRA y deberá mostrar tasas de corte más firmes. Adicionalmente, la reciente escalada del dólar en el mercado de cambios es otro factor que lleva a las entidades financieras a mostrarse más cautas con una suba de tasas, herramienta tradicional para golpear por detrás a la demanda de dólares.

Es que el tipo de cambio viene mostrando una corrección tras la remoción del cepo cambiario con un valor que había dejado sabor a poco para las principales exportadoras. También la demanda reprimida de dólares para giro de utilidades e importaciones que se aceitó en el último mes viene aumentando la cotización del billete verde. El mercado intuye que más temprano que tarde el gobierno actuará de modo de frenar la suba para evitar que genere más inflación en un momento delicado de negociaciones paritarias. Las autoridades deben llegar hasta el mes de abril en donde comienza la liquidación de la cosecha gruesa y se vuelquen al mercado más divisas por el lado del comercio exterior.

Los bonos dólar link fueron los más demandados y probablemente comiencen a ajustar rendimiento si la suba del dólar se frena. A diferencia de los bonos en dólar puro, estos títulos compiten directamente contra la tasa de interés (los primeros se rigen por la tasa internacional que paga Argentina). Para los inversores que quieran tomar ganancias en los dólar link es un momento interesante para hacerlo, y aún se pueden aprovechar oportunidades en los bonos en dólares como el BPLD de la Pcia. de Bs. As. que continúa cotizando con un plus de un 1,5% anual sobre el DICA del Estado Nacional. Históricamente estos dos títulos mantuvieron rendimientos similares, y tanto uno como el otro se verían beneficiados por una reducción del riesgo país atada al acuerdo con los fondos buitre.

Los más conservadores pueden buscar cobertura ante una eventual suba de tasas en bonos que paguen interés variable en pesos, teniendo el AM17 para plazos cortos o el PR15 para obtener algo más de rendimiento pero con un título más largo. Los llamados “Bonac”, que son títulos que pagan renta vinculada a la tasa de licitación de Letras, también resultan ser un factor protector. El AY16 tiene un cupón variable atado a la letra de 252 días, mientras que el A2S6 está atado a la letra de 98 días. De todas maneras hay que tener en cuenta que una eventual suba de tasas se dará más notoriamente en el tramo corto de las letras y se verán reflejados en menor magnitud en las de 98 y 252 días.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 21.2.2016

4.046 comentarios

  1. raul

    debiera ser un lunes positivo.

    cuanto impacta a san miguel apertura de mercados en eeuu??

    para el corto plazo que acción le gusta sr. Tavares (sabiendo lo difícil del corto plazo)?

    muchas gracias.

  2. Franco

    Estimados, que hay de cierto del rumor de que el balance de come trae una ganancia de 1300 millones solo en el cuarto trimestre 2015? Venía con 200 acumulados…

  3. Histórico

    Llegó un muy buen balance de Carlos Casado!. Al 3er trimestre ganaba unos 6 millones de pesos y al 4º vino con una ganancias de $ 64 millones. a eso hay que agregarle casi $ 92 millones de ganancias por Diferencias de Cambio debido a la devaluación, Lo que hace un total de casi $ 156 millones de ganacia con un capital social de $ 100 millones.
    Como la moneda argentina se sigue devaluando y del 31/12/2015 a la fecha lleva una depreciación del 13% seguirán las ganancias por diferencia de cambio.
    Además es un papel muy atrasado. En el año la acción pierde un 13 % y la valorización de los ultimos doce meses es de sólo el 1.31%.

  4. Mat

    Hola Héctor: Como la ve a CECO?
    Si bien cerró negativa hizo un millón de nominales de volumen. Desde diciembre no se movía así. Saludos.

  5. barandista

    Uno tiende a ser desconfiado a comentarios sin asidero o sin fundamentos comprobables. Pero, No creo que venga Con las Manos Vacias. Por la venida de Obama.

  6. Tavares
    Author

    Mat: Creo que todo el mercado se adelanta al acuerdo con los buitres.
    Histórico: Me molesta que deje Casado en suspenso si va a pagar dividendos. Si analizas lo que ganó el año pasado, no me parece que sea para descorchar champagne. Ojalá me equivoque. Suerte

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