PROCESANDO LAS NOTICIAS POLITICAS

AxelKicillof_0

 

 

El mercado financiero analizaba dos escenarios similares para 2016 independientemente del candidato vencedor en las elecciones primarias. Con tonos distintos, se esperaba una administración que modifique el clima de negocios y que eso disparara la inversión privada, tanto nacional como extranjera. Actualmente, ese escenario con Daniel Scioli está prácticamente descartado. Restaba ver si el actual gobernador bonaerense llevaría adelante transformaciones paulatinas (la opción “gradualismo”) o bien profundizara las políticas actuales dejando gobernar a Cristina Fernández desde las sombras. La designación de Carlos Zannini como vice, aumentó los temores de la segunda opción.

En términos electorales, aún resta ver qué ocurre con el elector sciolista indeciso, que quizás consideraba esta opción como un mal menor frente a Mauricio Macri. Un cambio sustancial podría cambiar la ecuación para los mercados, pero lo más probable es que la posición de Scioli se mantenga similar. Los inversores y analistas contaban con un 2016 con peor situación económica que el 2015 pero con mejores perspectivas, y por lo general las perspectivas son mucho más importantes que la realidad en términos de valuación de activos financieros.

Las elecciones primarias darán en agosto un dato “duro” sobre la realidad electoral. Si Scioli se fortalece, es probable que los bonos tengan una valuación similar al 2013: 13% de rendimiento promedio para los títulos en dólares. Luego restará dirimir, una vez asumido, si el eventual mandatario adoptará un camino independiente de cambios por lo bajo o bien seguirá con las políticas actuales. Este último escenario sería el peor: los rendimientos de los títulos probablemente vayan a buscar niveles entre el 15% y el 20% anual.

Distinto puede ser si en 2016, luego de un ajuste en los precios por una victoria de Scioli, éste muestra signos de independencia y tiende a normalizar las cosas. Los números en la Provincia de Buenos Aires fueron distintos a los de la Nación (alternar superávit y déficit fiscal es quizás la principal diferencia), aunque no quiere decir que se traslade necesariamente de uno a otro nivel. Pero si da indicios de ir normalizando los números, los activos podrían ir recuperando precio.

Finalmente, en caso de una victoria de Mauricio Macri, se espera que el candidato corrija “rápido y furioso” los principales desequilibrios económicos que se agravaron en los últimos 4 años (retraso cambiario, déficit fiscal abismal, ausencia de superávit comercial, recesión y caída de la inversión como porcentaje del PBI). Con un ajuste exitoso, la valorización de los activos argentinos y el ingreso de capitales de inversión más que compensarían un retroceso del consumo en la actividad económica.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 21.6.2015

11.249 comentarios

  1. jose

    EL ULTIMO PARRAFO DEL COMENTARIO IMPOSIBLE, PRIMERO Q NO GANA Y SI LO HACE HARA LO MISMO QUE SCIOLI, SI SCIOLI VA A 40 POR HORA,MACRI IRA A 45.

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