PREPARATIVOS PARA EL 1º DE AGOSTO

 

 

 

Acostumbrados a la idea de que un acuerdo con los fondos buitre era inminente, los bonos argentinos cotizan con rendimientos inferiores que los del promedio del año pasado y mucho más bajos que los meses previos a la devaluación de enero. Vale decir que si uno mirara tan sólo los precios de los títulos públicos, parecería muy remota la probabilidad de un default de la deuda. Sin embargo, los días pasan con el mismo discurso oficial que hace un mes, y el mercado se va haciendo la idea de que se llegará a un default para fin de mes.

Ocurre que el 30/06/14 la Argentina debió haber pagado los intereses de los títulos Discount, y el bloqueo establecido por el juez Griesa impidió que el dinero llegara a los tenedores en el extranjero. El prospecto del canje establece un período de gracia de 30 días a partir del cual. si no se regulariza la situación, los bonistas pueden pedir la aceleración de vencimientos (en la práctica, un default). Es decir que toda la serie de Discounts y Pares bajo ley extranjera corre riesgo de entrar en cesación de pagos.

La negociación con los fondos buitre es más compleja de lo que parece. Desde el mercado se presupone que el gobierno sabe que la única alternativa es pagar y se debate entre dos estrategias: una que se salde ya mismo la deuda impaga y otra que se entre en default hasta enero del 2015 y se salde recién entonces. La discusión subyacente es si la sentencia de Griesa dispararía reclamos por parte de los bonistas que sí canjearon para reclamar el mismo tratamiento que los fondos buitre, que es la famosa cláusula RUFO del canje. Este derecho terminaría el 31/12/2014 y entonces el gobierno podría negociar sin temor a una interpretación judicial retorcida de dicha cláusula que desarme el canje de la deuda del 2005 y 2010. Lo cierto es que aún bajo ese escenario, no es del todo claro que el gobierno esté dispuesto a pagar la sentencia sino que, de acuerdo al discurso oficial, esperaría que los fondos buitre acepten el canje.

Por lo pronto, en los días donde parece haber avances con las negociaciones se impulsan los bonos, pero a medida que nos acercamos al 1º de agosto sin novedades, la tendencia será declinante. Si se llega a esa fecha sin haber podido cursar los pagos, es de esperar una fuerte baja que irá recuperándose paulatinamente. A partir de entonces, una vez entrado en default, lo que marcará el pulso de los bonos serán las expectativas de que la sentencia se solvente inmediatamente pasado el 31/12/2014.

Una última salvedad merece la reunión que tendrá el próximo martes 22 entre el juez Griesa y los agentes intermediarios del circuito de pagos de la deuda. El evento más probable es que Griesa permita el pago de todos los bonos que no sean legislación de Nueva York (incluyendo los de legislación argentina que se encuentran en el exterior, actualmente bloqueados), aunque también podría permitir el pago de todos los discounts corriendo el “deadline” al vencimiento de los pares, para el 30/09/2014. De todas maneras, esta posibilidad parece remota.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 20.7.2014275px-Merge-split-transwiki_default.svg

 

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