PESA SIN TARJETA AMARILLA – la nota de la semana-

 

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“Su pasado la condena”………y el ligero análisis de sus detractores desestima sus resultados. Nos estamos refiriendo a PETROBRAS ARGENTINA (Pesa)que no goza de la simpatía de los inversores argentinos (por algo será). Es que el resultado del 1er trimestre es malinterpretado y no se advierte que puede ser un buen negocio incluirla en todo Porfolio. En principio diremos que ganó en 3 meses 822 millones contra 698 millones de 2014.  Capital  2019 millones; Reserva Futuros Dividendos  1296 millones; Reserva para inversiones 5730 millones; Resultados no asignados 822 millones. La crítica que se le hace es que la mayoría de la utilidad (82%) proviene de la venta de su Cuenca Austral (Santa Cruz), comparando los 674 millones  de utilidad bruta con 822 millones de utilidad neta. El error está en que a los 674 millones deberán detraerse  236 millones por impuesto a las ganancias, con lo que la cifra comparable con el resultado final sería de 438 millones (53%), con lo que el Resultado Neto del periodo 2015 sin la venta de Santa Cruz , hubiera sido de 384 millones. Para compararlo con el 1er trimestre 2014 en el que ganó 698 millones. deben efectuarse las siguientes consideraciones. En ese período también existió una venta extraordinaria que fue el área de Puesto Hernández con una  utilidad bruta de 181 millones y Neta de 118 millones. Asimismo, por efecto de la devaluación de enero 2014 existió una utilidad extra neta de 217 millones  por Diferencia de Cambio. En definitiva, el Resultado Neto normalizado de 2014 seria de 363 millones(698-118-217) que debería ser comparado con los 384 millones de 2015.

A favor de la situación actual cuentan otros indicadores. El Activo Total bajó en 448 millones, mientras que el Pasivo lo hizo en 1326 millones; El Resultado Operativo de 2015 fue de 1417 millones contra 1041 millones de 2014; la utilidad mayor provino de los rubros Exploración y producción petrolera( más 328 millones ) y Gas y Energía (más 92 millones) que son los que se privilegian actualmente.
Como expectativa debe considerarse el próximo retorno al Panel líder y que en diciembre 2014 se contabilizaron pérdidas por 1200 millones por ajustar sus inversiones externas al nuevo valor del petróleo, el que ahora ronda los U$S 61 por barril. Si le agregamos el severo control que asegura el “affaire” Petrobras Brasil,  amerita retirarle la “tarjeta amarilla”.
Héctor Tavares

5.868 comentarios

  1. Gaston Milanovich

    Hector como ve CEPU2 para largo plazo. Considerando que con el proximo gobierno se les habilite tener mayor rentabilidad y el plan de inversion que proyectan.

  2. Augusto

    Maestro buenos días. Que comentario tiene de PETR? QUe tanto recorrido le ve de acuerdo a su último balance? Muchas gracias.-

  3. Tavares
    Author

    cepu2 Dependerá de las encuestas sobre próximas elecciones. PETR presentó un balance muy bueno pero dependiendo de la parte financiera. Puede ir para ambos lados en el futuro cercano

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    Muchas gracias

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