PERSPECTIVAS EN BONOS PARA EL 2015

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Después de un complejo 2014 que incluyó los arreglos con el CIADI, Repsol, el Club de París y por poco con los fondos buitre, Argentina encara nuevamente el desafío de resolver alguna vez su relación con el mundo, bajar el índice de riesgo soberano y de ese modo poder acceder al mercado internacional de crédito a tasas accesibles para financiar sus grandes requisitos de capital. El mercado no tiene grandes apuestas de que se resuelva en el corto plazo, pero el año electoral, que en principio marcaría un fin de ciclo, ofrece una amplia gama de perspectivas.

Actualmente ha vencido la tan popularizada cláusula RUFO de los bonos del canje, en teoría el principal escollo del gobierno para alcanzar una solución con los fondos buitre. Adicionalmente existe una legislación local que el gobierno debería modificar, de modo de permitir a los funcionarios negociar mejores términos que el canje de 2010, algo que los buitres sistemáticamente han rechazado. De modo que la primera expectativa de mercado vendrá de la mano de todos los indicios que lleven a suponer un pronto acuerdo con los acreedores rebeldes, al menos durante el primer semestre. De ser así, la confianza en cuanto a que se llegaría a una transición presidencial sin grandes traumatismos sin duda impulsaría a los bonos en dólares en particular y a los activos argentinos en general.

La demora en alcanzar un acuerdo impactará relativamente, dependiendo de las perspectivas electorales. Ya para mediados de año, con las elecciones primarias en puerta, las ideas de los respectivos candidatos marcaráan el pulso de los títulos soberanos. Particularmente importa el devenir del mercado cambiario, los debates sobre la desaparición del cepo y el saneamiento de las estadísticas del INDEC, que marcarán el ritmo de los bonos dollar-linked y los ajustables por CER (coeficiente directamente vinculado a la inflación oficial). Los primeros, denominados en dólares pero que se pagan en pesos al cambio oficial, tuvieron una fuerte demanda durante el 2014 en vistas de la unificación cambiaria: si el dólar oficial converge al paralelo, estos títulos ganarían la brecha (siempre que se libere el mercado no se desdoble).

Con las carteras formadas, los inversores terminaron un diciembre muy cargado de incertidumbre sobre el devenir de las principales variables económicas. La caída de la cotización de la divisa norteamericana durante los últimos meses trajo cierto recelo para la tradicional dolarización de portafolios, mientras que las inversiones en pesos prometen ser rentables una vez normalizados los diversos frentes económicos. Tradicionalmente han sido menos rentables que el dólar (implican un riesgo menor), pero las menores expectativas de inflación debidas a la recesión las convierte en aceptables. Si a eso se le suma el hecho de un potencial impulso por la normalización de estadísticas, los títulos que ajustan por CER deberían ser más considerados.

EDUARDO CARDENAL, Clarín, IECO, 4.1.2015

 

 

 

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