PENSANDO EN EL ATRASO DE LAS EXPORTADORAS -la nota semanal-

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Finalizada la corrección basada en la expectativa que genera el cambio de gobierno, no en su aciertos como relatan algunos, llega la hora de la verdad respecto a la sustentabilidad de algunos precios. Descartado que se mantendrá el dólar oficial sin grandes cambios por “cosmética indiciaria” , se intensificará su atraso y la falta de competitividad industrial, especialmente ante la debilidad de “real”. De allí que resultará inexorable que para recuperar competitividad, entre otras medidas, se corregirá el valor del dólar oficial en el próximo turno político. Existen en la Bolsa empresas emblemáticas que en las condiciones actuales presentan buenos Balances que se potenciaran con un mejor valor cambiario. ALUAR es un buen ejemplo. En 6 meses ganó 800, 2 millones (256.2 mill en 2013) con capital de 2800 millones y otras reservas por 1936 millones.

SIDERAR,  a pesar de la caída de la producción automotriz, ganó en el Ejercicio 3270 millones (2107.2 millones en 2013) con capital de 4517 millones. distribuirá 16% en efectivo. MOLINOS RIO que finalizó su Ejercicio con utilidades por 620,6 millones (10.5 millones en 2013) y capital de 250.4 millones.

De menor mercado, pero no menos interesante es SAN MIGUEL, con posibilidades que se libere el ingreso de sus limones en EE. UU. En su ejercicio ganó 227.7 millones (59.7 millones en 2013) con capital de 64.4 millones.

En otro orden, siempre existen “perlas” que pueden sorprender. Se advierte que la subvaluación de SEMINO puede recuperarse ante situaciones puntuales que la favorecen. Las continuas inversiones que realiza en sus instalaciones la puso a cubierto de inundaciones o falta de suministro energético.

La política trigera del gobierno facilita la compra de su principal insumo a bajo costo. Por su ejercicio anterior adeuda 17% en acciones que pondría a disposición en marzo. En 6 meses ganó 3.8 millones (en 3 meses perdía 1.5 millones) con 106.7 millones  de capital. Se espera un 3er trimestre superior al anterior. Contra lo que pueda suponerse por la caída de la actividad económica, la venta de electrodomésticos no se resintió por el plan 12 cuotas. Por lo menos así lo expresan en GAROVAGLIO, DOMEC y LONGVIE.

Héctor Tavares

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