OTRA VEZ CUNDE EL PESIMISMO

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Alertando ya desde principios de año, el mercado mostró nuevamente su temperamento volátil ante los resultados de alguna elección, encuesta o sencillamente del tiempo. En este caso particular el detonante fue la ajustada victoria en el balotaje porteño por parte del candidato del PRO, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. Los inversores se preocuparon por un efecto colateral sobre las posibilidades electorales de Mauricio Macri a la presidencia. Hay que recordar que los mercados están expectantes de un cambio de rumbo (sea parcial o radical en principio) en las políticas económicas: al precandidato Mauricio Macri le atribuyen un cambio seguro, mientras que Daniel Scioli aún es dicotómico para la “city”.

El pesimismo en los bonos se ve manifestado por la creencia de la profundización de las políticas actuales. Bajo ese escenario, el riesgo país aumentaría, el dólar subiría y los bonos “dólar-link” y los ajustables por CER aumentarían su rendimiento (algo menos éstos últimos). Los motivos no son ideológicos sino que en los últimos 2 años los rendimientos de los bonos han caído (es decir, los bonos han subido de precio) porque el mercado esperaba un cambio: si el cambio no llega, los bonos ajustarán a la nueva realidad. Por el contrario, con el optimismo el dólar se muestra más tranquilo, los bonos bajan su rendimiento y los inversores especulan sobre cuáles títulos tienen mayor potencial de suba tras los ajustes esperados.

En la semana anterior, los bonos ajustables por CER tuvieron un día de repunte tras quedar en mínimos y también fueron muy demandados los “dólar-link”. La recuperación se vio interrumpida por las jornadas de pesimismo tras el domingo electoral y constituyen una buena oportunidad de compra de bonos largos a la espera de jornadas más optimistas. En particular, el bono Par en pesos poco ha recuperado y sigue manteniendo un buen potencial de suba de precio tanto en un escenario de corto plazo que cambien las expectativas como en un escenario de mediano plazo donde se sinceren las estadísticas del Indec. En este último caso, se trataría quizás del bono con mayor potencial de suba subyacente.

Por otro lado, los títulos “dólar-link” extrañamente no han reaccionado al pesimismo y mantienen con fuerza la expectativa de una unificación cambiaria en el corto plazo. Si bien es cierto que para el 2017 la normalización del mercado cambiario es de esperar que esté consumada, no es una tarea sencilla de hacer debido a la gran cantidad de demanda de dólares retenida (importaciones, dividendos, etc.). Para los inversores más recelosos de las apuestas, los títulos en dólares de corto y mediano plazo como el AA17 (corto) y el AY24 (mediano) mantienen interesantes rendimientos anuales en dólares en un contexto relativamente seguro. Los rendimientos rondan entre el 9% y el 10,5% anual en dólares y se mantiene la exposición a moneda extranjera que morigeraría pérdidas si llegaran a subir los rendimientos por peores expectativas.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 26.7.2015

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  245. Egzystujac w kompletow profesjonalnie czyniacym zagrywka uzasadniajacym sie o przetestowane strategie akty, ktore do tego awansujemy wysokim testem istniejemy w stanie zaoferowac orzeczone a w caloksztaltow obrotne sposoby terapie typow sposrod tarapatami erekcyjnymi. Pragnac dac mozliwosc miesista dyskrecje krajowych poslug oferujemy pomiedzy nieroznymi plus sukurs mailowa. Prowadzone w poprzek lokalnych koneserzy czynu pomogly w tym momencie niezmiernie wielu jednostkom.

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  263. Hmm is anyone else having problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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  288. My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on various websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard excellent things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be really appreciated!

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  299. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  343. My developer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

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  372. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

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