OPTIMISMO Y CAUTELA. -LA NOTA DE LA SEMANA-

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El clima “post 2015” continua predominando positivamente en LA Bolsa, estimulado por la decisión  de la FED de postergar la recuperación de tasas financieras. Así, como oportunamente se advertió sobre la conveniencia de “acumular” acciones ante la retracción compradora, hoy debe señalarse la necesidad de “prudencia” ante el clima eufórico que se espiraliza. Ello no significa que se dude de las posibilidades del mercado accionario, todo lo contrario, se ratifican las expectativas. Solo se señala que existió un importante ajuste y que se debe estar atento a la “toma de ganancias” de las “manos débiles” para aprovechar circunstanciales precios menores. La complejidad económica que heredarán las próximas autoridades no serán de fácil solución y en principio exigirá mayores esfuerzos que se compensarán en la medida que se recupere la confianza. Todos los candidatos con mayores posibilidades están contestes en afirmar que corregirán los errores  cometidos, entre ellos el “cepo cambiario”. Cualquier solución pasa por adecuar el nivel del dólar para obtener, posteriormente, con la ayuda de medidas complementarias, una estabilidad duradera que permitirá nuevamente efectuar proyecciones razonables. Cabe preguntarse ante el castigó de las petroleras si no es conveniente apostar a futuro a una recuperación, especialmente cuando se advierte en EE. UU una tendencia a disminuir la producción de “fracking” y a  negociar con Arabia Saudita. En ese caso YPF, PESA, APBR (con depuración interna) PETROLERA PAMPA y TENARIS, que adeuda u$S0.30 de dividendo, presentan una buena alternativa.

Los Bancos tuvieron una buena levantada pero se ve frenando a BANCO PATAGONIA que ganó 2178 millones con 719.3 millones de capital y distribuirá un 145% en efectivo. SAN MIGUEL será un gran beneficiado con una devaluación. La utilidad fue de 299 millones con 64.4 millones de capital y distribuirá 74.50% en efectivo. Resulta una buena apuesta AUTOPISTA OESTE que incrementó tarifas en Enero y que ganó 30.2 millones con 160 mill de capital. Distribuirá 18% en efectivo. Se debe recordar que  de confirmarse la explosión de demanda esperada por los analistas, el “panel general” se vera especialmente beneficiado por la estrechez de oferta que potencia la suba abrupta de su cotización.

Héctor Tavares

 

1.534 comentarios

  1. Alejandro

    HOLA MAESTROO…. CECO… ENDESA EN MANOS DE LOS TANOS AHORA,…. me gustaria su opinion del ultimo trimestral que fue impecable… recibio un suculento aporte del gobierno

  2. Sebastian Arrojo

    Se viene la venganza de las petroleras. Van a empezar a subir y mucho. Alguien realmente cree q el petroleo va a ser reemplazado?? Jaaajajaja jaaaaaaa no me hagan reir.

  3. fede

    Hector como ve a CECO2, ahora saneada y con la deuda refinanciada? Cada dia tiene mas volumen, podrá pasar a formar paarte del panel merval en un futuro?

  4. Tavares
    Author

    SAMI bajó por toma de ganancias. Como dije, está haciendo la digestión. Así es la Bolsa. Ahora busca un piso mucho más alto que hace un mes. El recambio de papeles y que salgan los que quieren salir, es bueno. No asustarse.
    Ceco mejora y hay que considerarla. A Casado no la estoy siguiendo.
    Pampa para arriba. Petrolera Pampa correlacionada con YPF. Sus balances por ahora tienen que ver con lo financiero. A TGN habrá que ponerle una ficha. Se arriesga poco. En COME veo manos fuertes llevando

  5. Carlos Paredes

    Don Hector a COME con la ve a largo plazo algun precio objetivo????Muchas Gracias!!!!atte CARLOS (La Rioja)

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