OPCIONES QUE SE ABREN PARA LOS AHORRISTAS

 

 

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Como ya es de público conocimiento, el gobierno argentino se encuentra en una dura encrucijada en materia de la deuda externa. Imposibilitado de realizar el pago del bono Discount en dólares bajo Ley Nueva York y el Discount en euros bajo Ley Inglesa, comenzó a correr un tiempo de gracia de 30 días donde debe resolver un arreglo con los fondos buitre, que se le permita el pago del cupón o bien entrar en incumplimiento (default). Sin embargo, al entrar en default esos títulos, por las cláusulas de default cruzado también entrarían en esa situación todos los títulos del canje bajo ley extranjera.

¿Qué significa exactamente” entrar en default”? Básicamente implica que si se dan condiciones de incumplimiento, los bonistas tienen el derecho de peticionar que se acelere el vencimiento del bono y reclamar así todo el capital. Como el Estado no podría pagar, entonces se encuentran en condiciones de litigar por el total del capital del bono. Como además existen cláusulas de default cruzado, otros tenedores de bonos reclamarán con el mismo derecho.

En definitiva, y para tranquilidad de los ahorristas, los bonos que corren riesgo de entrar en default son aquellos vinculados al canje de deuda y con legislación extranjera: estos son los discounts (DICY, DIY0, DICE, DIE0), los pares (PARY, PAY0, PARE, PAE0) y el global 2017 (GJ17). Los cupones vinculados al PBI entran también en default, pero no habilitan ningún reclamo de capital.

Sin embargo, la situación golpeó obviamente las cotizaciones de los bonos, aunque todavía se encuentran lejos de rendimientos de default. De hecho, a principios de enero, cuando la Corte de Estados Unidos aún estaba en veremos, los rendimientos eran mucho más altos por las preocupaciones sobre las reservas del Central. Tampoco golpeó en demasía a través del dólar, que está en niveles más bajos que hace seis meses. Pero con todo, aún se pueden encontrar importantes rendimientos en los títulos con bajo riesgo de incobrabilidad.

Asimismo, en los últimos meses se popularizó bastante el método para hacerse de dólar a través de la bolsa. Esto consiste en comprar un título en dólares con pesos y venderlo contra dólares locales. Esta operatoria hizo empujar hacia abajo el precio contra dólares de los títulos hasta tal punto que es más caro comprar dólares locales que dólares en el exterior (en la jerga bursátil, el “dólar bolsa” es más caro que el “dólar contado con liqui”).

Una consecuencia importante para los inversores es el rendimiento obtenible comprando los títulos con dólares locales: un Boden 2015 tiene un rendimiento anual promedio en dólares del 18,5%, y el de un Bonar X es del 14%. En términos más sencillos, por cada 100 dólares invertidos en el Boden 2015, para el 3 de octubre del 2015 se habrán recibido 122 dólares. Una ganancia directa del 22% en dólares en 15 meses (es muy importante averiguar las comisiones de compra, renta y amortización de cada banco o sociedad de bolsa para calcular el rendimiento final). El mismo cálculo para el Bonar X daría 40 dólares, pero recién para el 03/04/2017.

Eduardo Cardenal, IECO, Clarín, 6.7.2014

 

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