¿Convienen o no los bonos con CER?
El cambio del viejo IPC por el nuevo IPCNu abrió una discusión sobre la inversión en títulos que ajustan por CER.
El pasado martes el Indec publicó la tercera versión del nuevo Índice de Precios al Consumidor Nacional Urbano (IPCNu), que reemplazó al anterior IPC caído en desgracia. Desde el 2007 el viejo índice publicaba sistemáticamente un 10% anual de evolución o, lo que es equivalente, un 0,8% mensual. La distorsión de las estadísticas públicas golpeó durante varios años los bonos ajustables por CER (un coeficiente directamente vinculado al índice) que mostraban rendimientos del 15%. En conjunto (ajuste más rendimiento por cotizar bajo la par), los títulos llegaban a duras penas a compensar la inflación verdadera.
Haciendo un poco de historia, el CER comenzó a ser publicado por el Banco Central en el 2002 luego de la pesificación asimétrica. La idea del coeficiente era compensar de alguna manera a los acreedores de deudas pesificadas. Y si bien no se iban a devolver dólares, al menos los ahorristas recogían pesos vinculados a la inflación. Como resarcimiento no fue malo, ya que en su primer año de existencia subió un 40%, permitiendo recuperar la mitad de lo perdido por la pesificación (el dólar fue de $ 1 a $ 3 mientras que la deuda pesificada de $ 1 a $ 1,4 y al ser ajustada llegó a $ 2).
En resumidas cuentas, desde el 2007 hasta el 2013 los títulos que ajustaban por CER eran prácticamente tomados como bonos a tasa fija. Con el nuevo índice, el CER alcanzó en tan sólo 3 meses lo que históricamente tomó un año entero en ajustar. La gran duda en el mercado es si este nuevo IPCNu puede tomarse como un índice que siga la inflación o si el INDEC volverá a las andadas tal como lo hizo en el 2007 y recientemente con el crecimiento del PBI. Indudablemente que con la misma gente dentro del organismo oficial, la confiabilidad del índice penderá de un hilo. Por lo pronto, si bien todavía registra alguna diferencia respecto de índices privados, también es cierto que las instituciones privadas realizan estimaciones menos precisas por sus menores recursos (por eso la dispersión de índices). Si bien existen serias dudas del número final, al menos en lo que hace a la tendencia parece haber consenso tomando, por ejemplo, el índice publicado por los diputados del Congreso de la Nación.
Yendo a números concretos, los índices publicados hasta ahora para el primer trimestre del año (3,7% para enero, 3,4% para febrero y 2,6% para marzo) arrojan un ajuste acumulado del 10%. Suponiendo una desaceleración de los índices para el resto del año y que resulten en 1,87% mensual, el ajuste del año sería del 30%. Si a ello sumamos el rendimiento de bonos como el NF18 (vencimiento en 2018, pagos mensuales), el PR13 (vencimiento en 2024, pagos mensuales) o el DICP (vencimiento en 2033, pagos semestrales), se obtiene un rendimiento anual que va del 36% al 40%.
La inversión parece atractiva como diversificación, ya que se mantiene relativamente ajena a los problemas de la deuda con los fondos buitre, son emisiones en moneda local y con un aceptable rendimiento. Adicionalmente, los títulos más largos podrían verse beneficiados en un futuro si el INDEC recupera la credibilidad de las estadísticas, máxime considerando el cambio de mandato presidencial en el 2015.
Eduardo Cardenal. Nota aparecida en IECO, Clarín el 20.4.2014
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