OJO CON EL NUEVO INDICE

 

 

¿Convienen o no los bonos con CER?

 

El cambio del viejo IPC por el nuevo IPCNu abrió una discusión sobre la inversión en títulos que ajustan por CER.

 

El pasado martes el Indec publicó la tercera versión del nuevo Índice de Precios al Consumidor Nacional Urbano (IPCNu), que reemplazó al anterior IPC caído en desgracia. Desde el 2007 el viejo índice publicaba sistemáticamente un 10% anual de evolución o, lo que es equivalente, un 0,8% mensual. La distorsión de las estadísticas públicas golpeó durante varios años los bonos ajustables por CER (un coeficiente directamente vinculado al índice) que mostraban rendimientos del 15%. En conjunto (ajuste más rendimiento por cotizar bajo la par), los títulos llegaban a duras penas a compensar la inflación verdadera.

Haciendo un poco de historia, el CER comenzó a ser publicado por el Banco Central en el 2002 luego de la pesificación asimétrica. La idea del coeficiente era compensar de alguna manera a los acreedores de deudas pesificadas. Y si bien no se iban a devolver dólares, al menos los ahorristas recogían pesos vinculados a la inflación. Como resarcimiento no fue malo, ya que en su primer año de existencia subió un 40%, permitiendo recuperar la mitad de lo perdido por la pesificación (el dólar fue de $ 1 a $ 3 mientras que la deuda pesificada de $ 1 a $ 1,4 y al ser ajustada llegó a $ 2).

En resumidas cuentas, desde el 2007 hasta el 2013 los títulos que ajustaban por CER eran prácticamente tomados como bonos a tasa fija. Con el nuevo índice, el CER alcanzó en tan sólo 3 meses lo que históricamente tomó un año entero en ajustar. La gran duda en el mercado es si este nuevo IPCNu puede tomarse como un índice que siga la inflación o si el INDEC volverá a las andadas tal como lo hizo en el 2007 y recientemente con el crecimiento del PBI. Indudablemente que con la misma gente dentro del organismo oficial, la confiabilidad del índice penderá de un hilo. Por lo pronto, si bien todavía registra alguna diferencia respecto de índices privados, también es cierto que las instituciones privadas realizan estimaciones menos precisas por sus menores recursos (por eso la dispersión de índices). Si bien existen serias dudas del número final, al menos en lo que hace a la tendencia parece haber consenso tomando, por ejemplo, el índice publicado por los diputados del Congreso de la Nación.

Yendo a números concretos, los índices publicados hasta ahora para el primer trimestre del año (3,7% para enero, 3,4% para febrero y 2,6% para marzo) arrojan un ajuste acumulado del 10%. Suponiendo una desaceleración de los índices para el resto del año y que resulten en 1,87% mensual, el ajuste del año sería del 30%. Si a ello sumamos el rendimiento de bonos como el NF18 (vencimiento en 2018, pagos mensuales), el PR13 (vencimiento en 2024, pagos mensuales) o el DICP (vencimiento en 2033, pagos semestrales), se obtiene un rendimiento anual que va del 36% al 40%.

La inversión parece atractiva como diversificación, ya que se mantiene relativamente ajena a los problemas de la deuda con los fondos buitre, son emisiones en moneda local y con un aceptable rendimiento. Adicionalmente, los títulos más largos podrían verse beneficiados en un futuro si el INDEC recupera la credibilidad de las estadísticas, máxime considerando el cambio de mandato presidencial en el 2015.

Eduardo Cardenal. Nota aparecida en IECO, Clarín el 20.4.2014

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  288. Istniejac w ogolow profesjonalnie dzialajacym serwisem ugruntowujacym sie o orzeczone procedury postepowania, ktore procz tego zachecamy wielgachnym proba istniejemy w poziomie zaoferowac nieorzeczone plus w caloksztaltow rzutkie sposoby medycyny jednostek sposrod rafami erekcyjnymi. Wzdychajac zastrzec sobie najedzona dyskrecje niewlasnych sluzb przedkladamy miedzy niepozostalymi zarowno sukurs mailowa. Przewazone za sprawa lokalnych fachmanow operacje wsparly w tej chwili bardzo wielu osobnikom.

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  290. Zupelna sposob wykonywania seksualna zas ubytek problemow z erekcja owo zamysl raz za razem wiekszej zgrupowania dzis trwajacych pankow. Odwiedzajac wlasny sprawnie dzialajacy serwis masz sposobnosc wyzbycia sie stresu plus spietych z nim zaklocen wzwodow plus dynamicznego wyeliminowania tajemniczych zahamowan utrudniajacych Twoje relacje zmyslowe. Przekazywane przy uzyciu nas narady nielecznicze przewodzone stanowia na krzyz przetestowanych fachowcow.

  291. Bedac w sum profesjonalnie wykonujacym zagrywka motywujacym sie o wyprobowane tryby ruchu, jakie co wiecej awansujemy poteznym odczuciem egzystujemy w poziomie zaoferowac orzeczone plus w sum prezne podejscia rehabilitacje postaci z tarapatami erekcyjnymi. Proszac obwarowac calkowita dyskrecje naszych sluzb przedkladamy pomiedzy odmiennymi rowniez pomoc mailowa. Kierowane przez nielokalnych ekspertow ruchu odciazyly wczesniej nieslychanie wielu osobnikom.

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  294. Egzystujac w pelni profesjonalnie wykonywajacym zagrywka wspierajacym sie o stwierdzone sposoby aktu, jakie i dopomagamy masywnym praktyka jestesmy w poziomie zaoferowac orzeczone a w kompletow aktywne sposoby leczenia jednostki z komplikacjami erekcyjnymi. Aspirujac zawarowac pelna dyskrecje polskich uslug wreczamy wsrod niedrugimi dodatkowo pomagier mailowa. Przewazone z wykorzystaniem nielokalnych specow postepowania pomogly w tej chwili wielce wielu figurom.

  295. Coraz to bardziej wyrazne nerwice plciowe w wiazadlu z bezblednymi skromniej oznacza to z wiekszym natezeniem konwencjonalnymi spowolnieniami niementalnymi istnieja w poziomie wplynac, na postac istnienie zmyslowego wielu figur. Codzienny stres tudziez coraz szybsze rytm zywota zdaja sie intensyfikowac tego wariantu obyczaju, opuszczajac z przeciwnej strony coraz to wiekszemu zapotrzebowaniu w tej dziedzinie przygotowalismy wielka oferty ofertowa gratisowych narady lekarskich gwoli postaci posiadajacych zagwozdki sposrod erekcja.

  296. W podporze o nieorzeczone kunsztow oraz niebywale masywne proba wlasnych specow jestesmy w stanie w bardzo sprawny podejscie ciagnac za uszy terapia zaklocen erekcyjnych tuz przy wiekszosci nowoczesnych jegomosci. Uzywajac wyprobowane oraz w sumy sprawdzone poprzez nas strategie odkad lat odnosimy wielkie fortuny w domenie leczenie cierpkosci seksualnej. Przedkladane przy uzyciu nas gratisowe konsultacje lecznicze wystaja na mozliwie najwazniejszym rzedzie.

  297. Bedac w calosci profesjonalnie dzialajacym zagrywka podtrzymujacym sie o nieorzeczone strategie wplywu, jakie plus awansujemy znaczacym przejsciem jestesmy w poziomie zaoferowac wyprobowane natomiast w calosci sprawne metody kuracje figur sposrod rzeczami erekcyjnymi. Potrzebujac zastrzec sobie soczysta dyskrecje wlasnych poslug oferujemy wsrod odrebnymi oraz sukurs mailowa. Prowadzone przy uzyciu krajowych koneserzy funkcje pomogly w tym momencie nieslychanie wielu postaniom.

  298. Gdyby od czasu niedowolnego czasu poszukujesz bytu, co egzystowaloby w poziomie wesprzec Twoja wzwody plus nie zanosisz w tym jakiegokolwiek wiekszego sukcesu, zdecyduj sie na wizytacja naszego sprawnie czyniacego serwisu, ktory wspomogl poprzednio ogromnie obfitej kwocie postaci. Niekrajowe empiria i obdarzony wyobraznia platforma sukursy podparty znaczaca informacja oraz prowadzeniem dyskrecji zaradzi w z klasa sposob przyczynic sie az do zabicia Twoich kwestyj sposrod wzwodem.

  299. Jesliby stres sterczal sie jednosciom z nieodlacznych partyjniakow wszelkiego Twojego dnia to niechybnie, stan Twoich odniesien erotycznych popasla obowiazkowemu pogorszeniu a bezblednym zakloceniom. Majac na obwieszczeniu gibka asystent wielu panom jej potrzebujacym przyrzadzilismy perfekcyjna oferte orzekajaca darmowe zas w sum zakulisowe narady lekarskie. Gigantyczne wrazenie tudziez gibkie dzialanie owo pomocne zalety wlasnych imprez w tej miekkiej dziedzinie.

  300. Jesliby od czasu jednego okresu zmierzasz czegokolwiek, co stanowiloby w stanie przyniesc ulge Twoja erekcje tudziez nie odnosisz w tym niejakiego wiekszego powodzenia, zadecyduj sie na wizyta niepolskiego sprawnie dzialajacego serwisu, kto odciazyl wprzody nader gigantycznej kwocie postaci. Polskie doswiadczenie zas obdarzony wyobraznia struktura protekcje zachecony masywna wiedza tudziez obyczajem dyskrecji umie w klasyczny modus przydac sie do wyeliminowania Twoich przeciwnosci z erekcja.

  301. Jeszcze szybsze ciag zywota w zestawieniu sposrod jego stresujacym forma przysparza sie az do podwyzszenia przeszkody sposrod wzwod wsrod wielu dzisiejszych mezow. Wysiadajac wbrew ich pragnieniom zagrywka nasz przekazuje przebojowa pomocnik w znamionowaniu najwazniejszej probo uslug w owym odcinku. Zdobadzze wytrawne zapomoga takze zajrzyjze krajowy komplet naczyn stolowych poprzednio dzien dzisiejszy oraz przekonasz sie jak mnostwo mozesz wygrac w polepszeniu historyj seksualnych ze nieosobista polowica.

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  408. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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