NUEVO TITULO EN DOLARES

 

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Emitido como parte de pago por la expropiación de Repsol, los inversores ya pueden adquirir y vender el Bonar 2024.

 

Como parte de un plan diseñado para tratar de revertir la merma de la producción petrolera y gasífera que se vivió durante la última década, el gobierno argentino había decidido expropiar en abril del 2012 el 51% del paquete accionario de YPF en manos de la española Repsol. Sin embargo, no se había pensado nunca en un pago hasta 2 años después, cuando la misma administración estuvo (y continúa estando) necesitada de acceder nuevamente a los mercados internacionales de crédito. Para ello se llevaron adelante numerosos cambios con la comunidad internacional: modificación de estadísticas, pago de juicios adeudados al CIADI, arreglar con el Club de París y compensar la expropiación a Repsol. Se le ofreció a la compañía un pago en un paquete de nuevos bonos emitidos, entre los que se encontraban el Boden 2015 (RO15), el Bonar X (AA17) y el flamante Bonar 24 (AY24).

El acuerdo con Repsol implicaba, de manera sencilla, la emisión de dichos bonos de forma tal que la petrolera ibérica pudiera venderlos en el mercado internacional hasta hacerse de U$S 5.000 millones. Ni lentos ni perezosos, los lazos con la banca JP Morgan se armaron de inmediato y en seguida los bonos llegaron a la plaza bursátil porteña. Toda la vuelta tuvo dos datos no menos significantes para el gobierno: en primer lugar, que el mercado internacional está dispuesto a aceptar bonos, y en segundo lugar, que hubo inversores dispuestos a traer dólares del exterior al país. Los bonos se encontraban en el exterior y se podrían vender allí por dólares, sin necesidad de ser vendidos contra pesos en la bolsa local.

En lo que interesa a los ahorristas, el nuevo título tiene una estructura similar al viejo Boden 2012. Amortiza en 6 cuotas anuales a partir de mayo de 2019 y cuenta con un interés anual de 8,75% dividido en dos pagos semestrales calculados sobre el capital sin amortizar. Es de legislación argentina como el RO15 y el AA17 (sus pagos no serían embargables por los fondos buitre) y paga en dólares localmente.

Localmente el título se ofrecía a un retorno levemente superior al 11% anual en dólares. Es decir, al ser cotizado a un precio menor a 100 dólares por cada título, el rendimiento es mayor que el nominal: si bien continúa pagando el mismo interés sobre 100 dólares de capital, el título se compra a un valor menor, incrementando el retorno. Este retorno, llamado TIR en la jerga financiera (tasa implícita de rendimiento), es similar al que ofrecen el Boden 2015 y el Bonar X, lo cual lo hace menos atractivo por el momento ya que se trata de un título de plazo más largo. Sin embargo, es de destacar que luego del pago del RO15 el año próximo, este nuevo título será el único de mediano plazo que quede, ya que no hay soberanos que venzan entre el Global 17 (diciembre de 2017) y los títulos Discount del canje (diciembre de 2033).

Los inversores confían en que el título se valorizará con más fuerza ante la escasez de oferta de bonos para la década del 2020. Por lo pronto, el AA17 continúa siendo una alternativa interesante de ahorro, ofreciendo un rendimiento muy importante para tratarse de un bono corto.

Eduardo Cardenal, IECO, Clarín, 18.5.2014 

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