NUEVAMENTE LA INCERTIDUMBRE

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El discurso de la presidente Cristina Fernández terminó detonando la salida de Juan Carlos Fábrega de la presidencia del Banco Central. En el mercado financiero, Fábrega era reconocido como el único funcionario de relevancia que trabajaba con buen criterio para contener los descalabros económicos. En enero del 2014 fue el promotor de una devaluación y suba de tasas que trajo una ordenada paz cambiaria sumadas a una continua contracción monetaria para atacar la inflación. Sin embargo, la necesidad de financiar continuamente al Tesoro atentaba contra la estabilidad del mercado de cambios, que finalmente duró más de lo previsto.

Asimismo, se atribuye a Fábrega la idea de coordinar a los banqueros argentinos para resolver el conflicto con los fondos buitre. El plan incluía la compra de los títulos en litigio, para lo que ya se había enviado el dinero al exterior. Con esos bonos, los banqueros propondrían un “stay” hasta fin de año -cuando recuperarían la plata- sorteando la cláusula RUFO del canje que aparenta ser el motivo del gobierno para la reticencia a negociar con los buitres. El rechazo del plan a último momento fue una señal para la declinación de Fábrega al frente de la autoridad monetaria, que terminó de concretarse luego de los desplantes del martes pasado.

El mercado financiero reaccionó rápidamente a su salida por partida doble: por un lado, estaba tranquilo con la presencia de un contrapeso en el Banco Central; por otro lado, se generó una fuerte incertidumbre sobre la radicalización de políticas que atenten contra el valor de las empresas y la solvencia del fisco. En particular, el mercado teme volver a una época de tasas de interés reales muy negativas, un dólar oficial planchado y una coerción sobre los sectores exportadores para conseguir las divisas que no se conseguirían por incentivos económicos, agravado por la flamante ley de abastecimiento. También la presencia de Vanoli en la Comisión Nacional de Valores producía cierta tranquilidad, puesto que si bien impulsó la nueva ley de Mercado de Capitales, nunca abusó de la potestad interventora que la ley permite en ciertos casos. En síntesis, el temor reside en que la radicalización del discurso de la presidenta se convierta en una radicalización de los hechos.

Por lo pronto los temores parecen exagerados aunque no imposibles. Por ello los títulos reaccionaron con fuertes caídas, incrementando los rendimientos. Los inversores escaparon de los bonos en dólares por temor a la insolvencia del fisco, algo que parece bastante lejano. Dicho sea de paso, hay que recordar que el nuevo código civil que contiene un poco específico artículo para la pesificación de contratos (que al ser poco específico sería en principio aplicable a todo contrato) recién entra en vigencia en 2016, por lo que todos los vencimientos dentro de este mandato presidencial deben hacerse en dólares de acuerdo a la ley vigente. Por eso es recomendable aceptar los riesgos y mantener las inversiones en dólares, que tienen rendimientos muy altos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 5.10.2014

 

 

 

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