MIRANDO AL 2016

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La discusión económica de mayo ha sido la dualidad “gradualismo versus shock”, donde los inversores tratan de discernir la política económica a llevar a cabo luego de las elecciones para corregir los ya fortísimos desequilibrios económicos. A inicios del 2015 el repunte de Mauricio Macri en las encuestas disparó los mercados ante la idea de un cambio radical tras las elecciones, pero la fortaleza en las encuestas de Daniel Scioli y el endurecimiento de los rojos públicos comenzaron a hacer prevalecer la hipótesis de que los desequilibrios no se corregirían pronto.

Más aún, el altísimo nivel de déficit fiscal sosteniendo el nivel de consumo a costa de emisión de deuda, genera un microclima de bienestar económico en la gente que haría difícil la elección política de ajustar. La presidente Cristina Fernández también tuvo éxito en lograr la comparación de su gestión frente a inicios del 2003 y alejar la mirada de la gente del serio deterioro de las cuentas públicas y los indicadores sociales en sus últimos cuatro años de gobierno.

Los primeros títulos en reaccionar ante la hipótesis de gradualismo y permanencia de los desequilibrios han sido los vinculados al dólar oficial. En efecto, ahora existen dudas en los inversores sobre si la brecha desaparecerá para el 2016 (principal atractivo de los títulos vinculados al dólar). Los títulos con devolución del capital el año entrante, como el AO16, ajustaron sensiblemente el rendimiento ante el temor que no lleguen a amortizar antes de una normalización del mercado oficial de cambios. Aquellos con amortización más tardía se vieron menos afectados. Por caso, el título nacional AM18 apenas varió su rendimiento. Los títulos provinciales BDC18 y NDG21 tienen un mayor rendimiento y mantienen la potencial ganancia, ideal para el inversor minorista.

Las expectativas en torno a la cuestión “gradualismo versus shock” marcarán el pulso del mercado hasta las elecciones. Las elecciones primarias en agosto proveerán la mejor muestra posible de cara a las elecciones en octubre y marcarán el rumbo de las expectativas. Una buena opción para el inversor minorista que esté dispuesto a asumir variaciones fuertes es el Bonar 2024, con rendimientos en dólares superiores al 9% anual y con un buen potencial alcista en caso que la perspectiva de “shock” parezca más viable. Por el contrario, en caso de un gradualismo o incluso de profundización de los desequilibrios actuales la suba del dólar morigerará las eventuales pérdidas.

Los bonos que ajustan por el coeficiente CER (inflación oficial) han también caído en precio durante mayo, pero en menor medida que el resto. La normalización de las estadísticas públicas sigue siendo una posibilidad mucho más sencilla de realizar que unificar el fondo cambiario o resolver el problema de la deuda externa con los fondos buitre. Los títulos más largos como el Discount en pesos o el Par en pesos sacarían màs provecho de un sinceramiento estadístico. Un bono del tramo medio con pagos todos los meses resulta más atractivo para aquellos que no quieran arriesgar.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 7.6.2015

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