MI DINERO por Eduardo Cardenal

48776-BCRA

 

 

 

Finalmente las Letras del Banco Central dejaron de ser el activo estrella de la city. Continúan siendo demandadas por una cuestión de liquidez, pero perdieron esa doble cualidad que tenían durante el 2016 de ser líquidas y el instrumento más rentable al mismo tiempo. ¿Qué fue lo que cambió? En primer lugar, el propio Banco Central se mostró bastante interesado en quitarle protagonismo al instrumento. La autoridad monetaria bajó hasta 23,20% la tasa de Lebac de plazo más corto mientras que la tasa que quiere revivir, la de pases pasivos a 7 días (sólo los bancos pueden operar allí), se encuentra en niveles del 24%. Adicionalmente llegó febrero donde sólo hay un vencimiento de letras por mes a partir de ahora. Eso llevó a que algunos inversores institucionales, especialmente los fondos comunes de inversión, no puedan concentrar más del 30% del fondo en el plazo más corto. Con lo cual deben o extender el plazo de inversión o mudar la liquidez a otro tipo de instrumento. Teniendo en cuenta el tamaño de la industria y considerando que muchos venían con carteras con 70%/80% en Lebacs, la tarea no es menor.

El segundo punto es que los bancos comenzaron a pagar mejores tasas en los depósitos a plazo fijo mayoristas a 30 días. Aquí en parte tiene que ver la imposibilidad física que tiene el Banco Central de tomar billetes de los bancos. Así, los bancos que cuentan con depósitos crecientes de efectivo y que tienen que depositar en el Central para cumplir con encajes y efectivo mínimo tienen que hacerse de dinero electrónico. La tasa Badlar detuvo su caída y comenzó un tímido rebote a pesar que el Central mantuvo las tasas de referencia inalteradas. La primera reacción del mercado fue casi inmediata: demandar activos a tasa badlar, sean bonos soberanos o corporativos.

En el mercado bursátil se tradujo en una compresión de los rendimientos de los bonos badlar y la tasa de caución en una primera instancia y luego se trasladó a los bonos ajustables por el índice CER. La pantalla de dólares tampoco lució atractiva para los pesos que buscan rendimiento: todo el mundo piensa que el dólar está barato pero se puede mantener igual o más barato aún. Mientras tanto se desaprovecharía el 2% mensual de tasa que ofrece casi cualquier instrumento en pesos. La estacionalidad del dólar prácticamente no se vio, ayudado por las colocaciones privadas en el exterior y algunas provinciales, y pocos se animan a realizar apuestas alcistas a dos meses del comienzo de la liquidación de la cosecha gruesa.

Distinto es el caso de las carteras personales que no se ubican tanto en títulos privados y tienen mayor margen de tiempo para realizar apuestas sin sufrir el costo de oportunidad. La acumulación se siguió concentrando en los bonos de mediano plazo como el AO20 y AY24, que ofrecen rendimientos de 4,5% y 5% en dólares respectivamente con algunas apuestas puntuales en Discounts y Pares, que comprimieron (levemente) parte del rendimiento que habían perdido tras la asunción de Trump. La mayor demanda seguramente se verá durante el segundo semestre del año cuando tras la liquidación de la cosecha (y ahora ya sin un blanqueo a fin de año) el dólar recupere cierto protagonismo, aunque es probable que el movimiento se adelante sobre todo si el tipo de cambio continúa estable durante los próximos meses. Por supuesto que realizar el movimiento ahora puede llevar al inversor a posicionarse en un dólar “planchado” mientras el tiempo pasa y la inflación continúa. Una estrategia prudente sería mantener la cartera posicionada en bonos ajustables por inflación (TC21, DICP, CUAP) mientras que se va posicionando en bonos en dólares parte de los pesos que se encuentren “haciendo tasa” con lebacs.

895 comentarios

  1. Juan Manuel

    Eduardo
    11 febrero, 2017 at 18:30 – Reply
    Les quiero aportar mi opinión sobre el tema acciones, merval.
    Muchachos, las energéticas subieron en los últimos 6 meses un 100%. Aprox.
    Crean me cuando les digo que viene una corrección.
    Tener un papel y no vender no te genera ningún ingreso, (pampa por ejemplo no da dividendos), entonces los pesados, pesados, que manejan el mercado a su gusto, cuando terminan de acumular, empiezan a pagar hacia arriba con muchísima menos plata que las que tienen invertida en ese papel. Ahí es cuando miles de minoritarios se prenden y pagan, ellos ahí empiezan a salir e irse a otros atrasados,para empezar a acumular nuevamente, mientras los dolobus las venden a precio remate para no perderse la otra que esta subiendo….( tengan en la mira a CRESUD-ALUAR-CTIO-ERAR)

    Hace mucho que estoy en la bolsa, quería compartirles mi visión.

    Repito.
    CRESUD.ALUAR.CTIO.ERAR
    Compren y acumulen mientras puedan, cuando algo ya es muy bueno que hasta el verdulero lo sabe, ya es muy tarde.
    No regalen su plata. Piensen a no menos de 6 meses sus compras. Lo ideal son seis movimientos en la comitente como máximo al año. ( compra/venta x3)

    PD:::::::
    ___________OJO CON MANDARSE DE CABEZA A PAMPA POR LA NOTA QUE PUBLICARON EL VIERNES.
    LOS VAN A DESPLUMAR.____________

  2. Juan Manuel

    Me parece interesante, aunque para mi en el caso de Pampa, el lunes tendría que subir, y recién el miércoles o jueves empezar a caer. Por eso voy a entrar a primera hora y salir rápido.
    Después veré a donde arbitro.
    CTIO me genera desconfianza. Ya me empomo una vez.
    CRESUD me gusta. Estoy dentro esperando el balance, después salgo.
    ALUAR siempre que puedo cargo. Y no la miro hasta fin de año. Es el porcentaje más alto de mi cartera.
    ERAR ídem a. ALUAR. Siempre que bajo de 10 cargue. Voy a largo. Pero mucho menor porcentaje que ALUAR.
    El tiempo dirá. Por ahora estoy confiado.

  3. Henry

    Juan Manuel. Lo que decis es más viejo que la historia. Los que están afuera ven correcciones hasta bajo de la mesa. Juego doble contra sencillo cuales papeles tenes. Descreo ROTUNDAMENTE de quienes hablan como profetas. A veces es preferible el silencio….
    Gracias a Cardenal por tan buena nota..

  4. SIRTHOMASMORE

    RF. CARDENAL, muy buena su nota, muchas gracias. Entiendo que, dada la inestabilidad por el “Efecto Peluca Rubia”, la mayoría de los analistas, están recomendado los bonos de curva media por sobre los largos. No obstante, creo que para los que somos inversores de larguísimo plazo en bonos dolarizados, siguen siendo muy atractivos: BPLD, DICA, PARA. En mi caso, son bonos para no tocar: esperar su vencimiento, bonus para la jubilación. Las delicias de la RA: hay que ahorrar sí o sí para tener un retiro digno, ya que lo que uno aporta, se lo fuma el Estado.

  5. SIRTHOMASMORE

    ALUA. Juan Manuel, quizás, pueda ser, como dicen varios, el “año de Aluar”. Yo tengo muy poquito, la verdad me genera cierta desconfianza el “ritmo” del papel. Siempre presenta buenos balances, es una empresa sólida y seria, única en su rubro, pero el papel vale menos que hace 18 meses, más o menos. ERAR, si bien está atrasada, ha tenido un poco de mejor recorrido. Estimo que por lo atrasadas y sólidas que son las dos siderúrgicas, pueden tener su rally. Veremos, yo por ahora, apuesto más por ERAR.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    Mi apuesta es lo Erar también , es indefendible que con 50% de suba de venta de autos nuevos, no solamente no subió sino que bajo, inentendible por un lado y oportunidad de compra por otro lado, siempre pensar en más de una situación.COME si no le da el balance bien en este trimestral será en el que viene pero es inminente el reestructuramiento de la empresa vendiendo activos que no le sirven e invirtiendo.Salida de convocatoria, CGC cada vez mejor , una perlita METROTEL , dedicada a bancos , industria y medios de comunicación, lo que se llama en marketin aprovecahar el nicho de mercado que dejaron los grandes , CERRÓ NEGRO , no esta en su mejor momento pero tiene maquinarias del primer mundo, sólo resta esperar reactivación de la construcción , PARQUE DE LA COSTA , esperando aumento de consumo, tiene el monopolio en este tema , sin competencia, lo de la siembra de canola para biodiésel esta en pañales , pero no incide un lo grande .SE VIENE COME , SI NO ES ESTRE TRIMRSTRAL ES EL OTRO .SR TSVARES CUANDO INSISTE, POR ALGO ES EJEMPLO :AGRO-CECO- COME .HISTÓRICO TAMBIÉN VIENE INSISTIENDO EN COME .NOS VEMOS JAVIER

    • Leonardo Sanchez

      Buen trio: AGRO-CECO-COME. Inobjetable. Este va a ser el año de CECO y COME. EL 2016 fue de AGRO, pero éste lo tienen asegurado esas dos empresas que estan recontra atrasadas y tienen un potencial enorme.

  7. SIRTHOMASMORE

    COME. Javier, estimado, por lo único que me gusta, para serte sincero, es por lo recontra atrasada que está. Pero sigo insistiendo, que mientras permanezca manejada por los timberos, no arranca. Pero su precio, es irrisorio: está para ir cargando algunas fichas, de a poco.

  8. SIRTHOMASMORE

    CTIO. ¿Qué pasó con PEPE, que se desapareció? ¿Habrá ido a gastar a cuenta en trolas? ¡Ojo, amigo, que todavía no rompió la resistencia de 42,6! Le tengo fe, que mañana, pegue otro estirón hacia arriba.

  9. Javier Aguirre

    SIRTH., desaparecio PEPE, ya me habia hecho ilusiones de que me presentaria la que quisiera morocha. rubia la que sea , con la condicion de que este re-buena. QUE PASO?

    NOS VEMOS, JAVIER

  10. Javier Aguirre

    Sirth. es cierto lo de la timba, pero aumenta cada muerta, esta muy atrasada y no explota de fundamentos, pero tiene, no estamos hablando de P;N negativo, super endeudada, y fundamentalmente tiene rubros que si Argentina recupera un poco son muy buenos rubros para ganar plata, esa es mi vision, de ahi que se de, no se.

    Tiene buenas empresas, que bien manejadas le dara beneficios, lo digo ahora que esta castigada, pensando simple, sin tanto analisis, a cuenta de almacenero, con olfato.

    NOS VEMOS,JAVIER

  11. SIRTHOMASMORE

    CTIO. En la primer quincena de marzo, aparece el balance, no sé fecha exacta. COME. Así es, Javier, creo que vale la pena apostar algo, está regalada: ¿cuánto menos puede valer?

  12. LEMA

    1) Excelente articulo Eduardo Cardenal. Un lujo su aporte.

    2) Barandista: para saber que agente opera en cada transaccion Bolsar desde ya que no te servirá, requeris la plataforma que utilizan los operadores de mercado. odes consultarle a tu agente quien o quienes están operando en determinado momento un papel.

    3) PAMPA, siempre Pampita.Es cierto que hasta ahora fue bastante generoso el grupo MM con los inversores en cada largada de nueva especie como en el curso que han tenido las mismas. Taqmbie es cierto que esta info que aparecio al final del viernes en la pagina de la CNV es poco comun, inusual por decirlo de alguna manera y promueve opiniones divergentes. Hay que considerar que el monto a invertir en la compra de papeles para endulzar a sus altos mandos, no es gran cosa si consideramos la operatoria que viene haciendo Pampa y su ADR en los ultimos 90 dias, (será hasta el 25% diario lo que puedan comprar del promedio de los ultimos 90 dias, no lo sque pero a ojo es bastante alto). Supongamos que llevaran de a 10 palos diarios en 11 dias se finiquita la cuestion y esto lo cocinarán en 17 dias (del 14 de feb al 10 de marzo considerando que habra 2 feriados), en pelpas argentinos y en ADRs. No parece que vaya a mover mucho la aguja esta cuestion. Es cierto tambien que el hablar de maximo valor de compra $42 o de u$s60 soprenden un poco y dejan cierta expectativa sobre el precio, pero claro que ellos deben cubrirse si en estos dias se da una fiebre bursatil que hace subir a Pampi a numeros colosales, no piensan pagar mas que eso, raro pero posible.
    Yo guardo cals feb y abril espero que realmente ocurra el milagro.
    Veremos mañana

  13. Otro javier

    Cado también está regalada y todos los días me hunde un poquito más… es el único papel que tengo abajo y no puedo recuperar lpm

  14. SIRTHOMASMORE

    CADO. Otro Javier, somos dos los empomados. ¡Qué poronga de papel, fui vendiendo un poco a pérdida, me tiene podrido! Cuando baje a 9, a este paso lo hará tranquilo, empiezo a recomprar… El último “rally alcista”, lo tuvo en julio pasado, que llego a valer 15, creo, con buen volumen. Es un clavo, para sacarle en algo en algún momento, y reventarla.

  15. Otro javier

    Solo porque estoy muy seguro de los fundamentos de la empresa no pienso vender a pérdida… pero es un ancla ese papel.

  16. marcelo

    Esto es un mensaje para los que operan con opciones, no compren por nada del mundo opciones de comercial del plata, hay toda una mafia atras, que maneja el papel por ya hace muchos años, y lo unico que hacen es lanzar y luego manipular el precio de la accion para que no suba y asi quedarse con el 100% de las primas cobradas, esto lo vienen haciendo los 2 ultimos años, no compres lotes pensando que la accion se vuela y los lotes la siguen, aca es al reves, o sea la accion es un derivado de los lotes, mientras que la gente sigua comprando lotes, la accion jamas va a subir, por lo tanto los lotes tampoco, ya que esta todo manejado como les dije.Espero se den cuenta y no compren mas lotes del papel mas manipulado de la bolsa argentina.

  17. Ruben

    Les dije q Pampa estaba batata, les dije y les digo q compren….16/02 asamblea y 13/03 vto. plazo balance, balance q tendrá incorporado a Pesa y será un balance de la puta madre….!!! Tremendo rally se viene en Pampa…. ya avise….!!!
    Ceco,….!!! Regalada…….papel de 20 mangos en los próximos meses,….!!!

  18. Ruben

    Come, Una basura….papel recontra manejado , manipulado y franeleado siempre por los mismos, Una porqueria…salír va a salir eso sí cuando se les cante a los q la manejan .

  19. Javier Aguirre

    Brio en Rosario, con denuncias de estafa, le dan chequeras a estafadores , los cuales hicieron un desastre, el banco investigado tambien por no tener los controles internos adecuados, yo personalmente lo vi, le dan chequeras a cualquiera sin control, ojo¡¡¡¡¡esta semana con esta noticia si aparece en los noticieros y pega raiting y no le da bien el balance, puede bajar mucho.

    NOS VEMOS,JAVIER(EN EL DIARIO LA CAPITAL ESTA LA NOTICIA)

  20. hugote

    escribir en un foro implica responsabilidad…aunque suene extremista…cada cosa que se escribe esta siendo leida quizas por algun novato que toma esas palabras y decide una inversion….aunque digamos que no se debe hacer eso….yo escribo con responsabilidad…y digo pampa,capex,ggal,macro,seguiran el camino alcista porque el mercado es alcista….despues en la exuberancia irracional ojala se acoplen cado,moli,come,lede,ctio.erar,alua,rigo,poll,rose,etc…que han sido un lastre espantoso en esta fiesta bursatil que paso…esta semana esta el vencimiento de opciones…y es un momento especial que sucede 1 vez cada 2 meses…disfrutenlo los comprados en papeles en suba…sigamos pensando en positivo y los 27000 del merval….

  21. rodrigo

    huguito/hugote/ruben que necesidad tenes de hacer autobombo de tu comentario? ademas es muy notorio escribis lo mismo en el foro de rava y aca. no escribo nunca, solo leo todo lo que puedo pero me causa curiosidad lo que haces, sera que ya estamos en la exuberancia que promocionas.

  22. Petysuar

    Si Pampa puso un precio máximo para la adquisición de sus acciones, nos esta dando un punto de referencia para analizar. Con el precio máximo de 42 por acción, suponen que por arriba de este no pagarán, por lo que les parecería caro. Y un precio por debajo de 42 sería razonable o barato.

    El tema de recomprar sus propias acciones siempre supone que es positivo, porque a su criterio evaluan el momento exacto para comprar y no pagar en exceso. Así como a nosotros nos gusta comprar barato. A ellos, también. Por otro lado, al sacar papeles de circulación (en este caso, no se si las podrán vender a futuro), hace que haya menos oferta de papeles con la misma demanda.

    Creo que Pampa y sus directivos han tomado decisiones acertadas en el pasado. No creo que esto la perjudique y lo hagan de mala fe. Es una señal para analizar.

    Los casos de recompra de acciones de YPF y TECO no creo que sean comparables, porque surgieron en otros contextos….nadie suponía que el precio del barril se iba a ir a los caños. Y TECO por más que no haya subido, sigue estando barata.

  23. MB el comentario de EDUARDO CARDENAL. Muchas gracias
    En cuanto al foro por suerte dejó de ser la bolsa de Ctatio solamente,
    Con respecto a Aluar, yo me pregunto si alguno tiene una visión más clara que yo, que pasa con el prcio del aluminio a futuro, quien lo produce en mayor cuantia en el mundo: China???.

    Sds C.

  24. SIRTHOMASMORE: Comercial es como cuando fuiste a un baile 100 veces y te gusto una mujer y las 100 veces te dijo no. Que haces. La tenes que olvidar y punto. Eso creo que pasa con Comercial.

    Sds C.

  25. SIRTHOMASMORE

    COME. Ja, me encantó la analogía. Puede que tengas razón, honestamente creo que la única forma en que COME se mueva, será si vienen muchos fondos frescos que se lleven puesto el papel, por lo regalado que está. En el mientras tanto, es un empome.

  26. Petysuar

    Esto es muy sencillo. Como comentó un forista, hay que pensar simple.Yo me pregunto: Si viene un fondo de exterior a Invertir en Argentina, teniendo 90 opciones en las cuales invertir, entre las cuales hay Gasiferas, eléctricas, Desarrolladoras, Agro, etc, todas con excelentes perspectivas en el mediano plazo…Van a poner algún peso en COME!??? Empresa con problemas financieros de todos los colores. Todos sabemos que el mercado es irracional……pero para meter $$$ en COME tenes estar mal de la cabeza, y con medicación psiquiátrica.

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  28. ruben

    Petysuar,…no tenes la mas palida idea en lo que a Pampa respecta,…te recomiendo te asesore un Broker,….!!!

    rodrigo,……simplemente un payaso,…!!!

    • rodrigo

      me tildas de payaso porque te pregunto pero no respondes…..en algun momento tus opiniones tienen cierta logica pero al necesitar hacerte autobombo con distintos nombres demostras segundas intenciones que no se comprenden y te quitan credibilidad, va sin mala intencion yo no te falto el respeto, trata de responder bien.

  29. Ruben

    rodrigo,….payaso,…..!!!
    primero respeta y no postees estupideces como Hugote o Hugito = Ruben,…..OK,….!!! no se de donde sacas semejante barbaridad,…por eso lo de payaso,…cuando postees hacelo con fundamento,…..

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