MI DINERO- LA NOTA DE EDUARDO CARDENAL

Tras el sacudón internacional generado por la victoria de Donald Trump comenzaron a abundar los estudios sobre las causas y las consecuencias de la elección. Lo único cierto es que, tanto con el Brexit como con la victoria del magnate norteamericano, no se conoce estrictamente el nuevo plan de acción del orden internacional. Tan sólo se sabe que la voluntad popular se manifestó en contra del statu quo de la globalización y se votaron cambios aunque no se sepan cuáles. Por lo pronto lo más consistente es la tendencia hacia una reducción del tráfico internacional (tanto de mercancías como de capitales y migratorio).

Ante este panorama las principales dudas de los mercados financieros mundiales se focalizan sobre qué hará Estados Unidos con la tasa de referencia de la FED, por un lado, junto con las dudas sobre la movilidad del capital, ya que Trump anunció que incentivaría la reinversión en el país desincentivando la inversión en el exterior (aunque haciendo foco en paraísos fiscales). Con respecto al primer punto la visión más fuerte es que el nuevo orden mundial incentivaría el incremento de las tasas de interés, aunque no es una visión única. La lógica es sencilla: un mayor proteccionismo que implique menor tráfico de mercancías haría que en cada país no se comercie el producto mundial más barato sino el local, con lo cual la ineficiencia de los mercados mundiales respecto de la situación actual haría que la presión inflacionaria fuera mayor. Y con mayor inflación, mayor tasa.

Sin embargo no es la única visión. La última oración es estrictamente de manuales, pero estos conceptos son conocidos (y más aún por nosotros los argentinos) donde las tasas de interés no necesariamente son superiores a la inflación. En un mundo con tanta liquidez acumulada, el deudor más confiable es quien tiene las riendas del asunto y no el acreedor. Una situación similar a la del Banco Central con los bancos localmente: tienen que aceptar la tasa que el Central ofrece o no sabrían qué hacer con los pesos. Los defensores de esta postura se basan en el interés de Trump en desarrollar la infraestructura, la industria y la energía en Estados Unidos, todas industrias demandantes de tasas bajas, especialmente las de largo plazo.

De todas maneras, independientemente de la tasa de interés de referencia, se trata del comienzo del fin de un sistema que fue muy auspicioso para los emergentes. Por lo que el panorama argentino no sería tan beneficioso como se esperaba originalmente y quizás se tengan que realizar cambios en la ruta fiscal (si es que hay alguna) más acelerados. Básicamente reducción del gasto público y reducción de la presión fiscal –con el gasto cayendo más que los ingresos-. Por lo tanto el largo plazo de Argentina está más atado a las reformas estructurales en un gobierno que aún no ha dado muestras de un sendero firme, posiblemente por temor a reacciones políticas de cara a las elecciones del 2017.

 

En las últimas semanas tanto la renta variable argentina como los bonos de largo plazo y la moneda local tuvieron caídas por el mayor temor sobre el devenir del mundo en general y de los países emergentes en particular. Temor probablemente exagerado, como todos los cambios de ciclo, pero no por ello con poco sustento. En este movimiento los bonos de largo plazo locales rondan el 8% anual de la mano de los bonos Par y Discount. Tasa nada despreciable que parece haber encontrado su techo. Pero parece haberlo hecho. Son rendimientos dignos de entrar con una probabilidad de apreciarse si Argentina encara un plan sólido y consistente de mediano plazo. Aunque el inversor debe optar más por el devengamiento de una alta tasa que por una apuesta a la apreciación de capital, ya que no sólo puede no pasar sino que incluso puede moverse en el sentido contrario (incrementar más su rendimiento, es decir, caer de precio).

Las apuestas conservadoras con instrumentos más cortos tienen mejor color

. Corto plazo en dólares con títulos como el NDG21 y mediano plazo con el AY24 aseguran una buena renta en moneda extranjera. Corto plazo en pesos en Lebacs o fideicomisos y mediano plazo en instrumentos ajustables por CER (incluso aquí se puede aventurar con DICP o PARP/CUAP con menos temor que un DICA/PARY) también asegurarán una buena renta en pesos. Por último están los futuros en dólar para cambiar el signo de la moneda de inversión, ya que en este momento es más pagador vender dólares a futuro con un NDG21 de subyacente que comprarlos e invertir el subyacente en lebacs.

1.634 comentarios

  1. Mat

    Que bueno tenerlo a Eduardo Cardenal acá dando su parecer sobre RF, la cual no manejo mucho pero siempre es de ni interés mantenerme informado. Muchas gracias Héctor por invitarlo a la página.

  2. Cristaldo

    Ahora la duda con los bonos LP como Par ó Disc, es que valor tendrá la moneda U$S en el mundo. El tema es que por distintos acontecimientos el dolar de aqúi a 15 años no sea como cobrar guaraníes. Alguien puede asegurar que en el LP no exista el patrón yuan?

  3. Rodolfo

    Sr. Tavares le solicito por favor establezca un peaje para la publicidad que llevan a cabo algunos de los foristas, con mayor canon para los que publicitan: AEN, OVOP, CECO, CONSULTATIO, PSUR, PAMPA, quizás me olvide de otras, pero éstas son las más evidentes. Muchas gracias.

  4. Otro javier

    Sr Tavares un gran toque de calidad sumar la opinión de Eduardo Cardenal a su blog. Una muy buena decisión, abrazo!

  5. Excelente maestro. Una noticia magnifica que vuelva Eduardo Cardenal a escribir en este Blog. El periodista-economista que mas sabe de renta fija en Argentina, mas allá de su amplio conocimiento de la economía global.

    Bienvenido.

    SDS C.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    Muy buen articulo, exelente pantallazo de lo que paso y puede pasar, y habla de su compañerismo tambien.

    Rodolfo, me parece que estas equivocado, nadie trata de inducir a nadie, y si lo hiciera ya es problema del inducido, se trata de intercambiar datos entre foristas y creo que Sr Tavares chequea permanentemente la pagina ….logicamente hubiera intervenido, mientras no se mienta y se tergiversen datos para mi esta todo bien, ¿NO SE QUE OPINA SR TAVARES Y FORISTAS?

    Un abrazo, nos vemos, Javier

    • Iceman2016

      Coincido Javier, si alguien es fana de algún papel y lo manifiesta, no tiene nada de malo. Y el que compra o vende debe investigar un poquito y no aferrarse a los comentarios. Toda info aporta un poquito. Y de última el que tenga dudas puede espiar las carteras de los fondos y tener un panorama de los papeles preferidos.

    • pablo

      De acuerdo Javier y Iceman. Siempre es valioso contar con muchos aportes y puntos de vista como en este foro. En las opiniones hay algo de subjetividad, todos tenemos papeles que nos gustan más que otros. Igualmente es responsabilidad de cada inversor completar su análisis y hacer su propio research.

  7. Rodolfo

    Todos tienen derecho de manifestar sus preferencias, no soy quién para impedirlo, menos aún porque soy solo un participante del foro. Lamento que no se haya interpretado que se trata de una ironía, quizás de poco nivel, pero que quise manifestar una evidente insistencia por parte de algunos foristas de mantener vigentes diariamente las acciones que mencioné.

  8. Consultatio la acción de esta semana

    CONSULTATIO FUE EL PAPEL QUE MAS SUBIÓ LA SEMANA PASADA, ESTA SEMANA CONSOLIDA PRECIOS Y VA RUMBO A LOS 50 PESITOS

    • Caperuzita

      DIOS MÍO…..QUE SALAMERO QUE SOS!!!!

      Ctio fue unas de las que menos gano en el 2016! Cabeza de tacho!
      Es un sorullo.

  9. Daniel M

    Sr Cardenal que opina del TC21 como opción al DICP.Además quería consultarle sobre el AA17,para cambiarlo por otro por otro bono en dolares que le parece mejor el AO20 o el AY24 (del AY24 tengo el 65 % de la cartera ),o será mejor estar más cerca del vencimiento antes de arbitrar.Me sumo a los agradecimientos por su regreso.

  10. ruben

    Las acciones,….te cuento,….esta semana se volan,…..!!!
    Mira como esta China, Hong Kong y Japon,……recontra verdes,…..mira futuros USA y el OIL,…..verdes,….!!! todas muy buenas señales,….!!!
    Pampa con todo y a full,….Ceco, Tgn, Caputo,EDN,…diversificado !!!

  11. Principiante

    Si bien no soy de invertir en RF, ya que toda mi inversión está en RV, creo que la incorporación de Eduardo Cardenal al blog es de suma utilidad, un lujo. Una incorporación valiosísima. Es un placer poder leer a estos dos grandes periodistas opinando para los que seguimos este blog. Abrazo para ambos y gracias a los dos.

  12. ruben

    Buenos dias gente.!!!
    Gran jornada tendremos hoy y gran semana nos espera…!!!
    Afuera todo esta muy bien y por lo que se ve,….va a estar mejor….!!!!

  13. Guillermo Eduardo

    Buen dìa , me sumo a la bienvenida del Sr Eduardo Cardenal , gracias maestro Tavares por enriquecer cada dìa la pàgina.-
    Abrazo
    Guillermo Eduardo

  14. Jorge

    Gran regreso del Sr. Cardenal es muy necesario más allá de los gustos saber de r.f. Y r.v. mi experiencia me indica que según las proporciones que cada uno le parezca hay que tener de las dos y también si se puede tener en cuenta la inversión inmobiliaria.Hay otras en la propia bolsa pero yo no he incurcionado así que no digo nada.me gustaría que el Sr.C Arsenal nombrará uno o dos bonos soberanos para la etapa que comienza del blanqueo para personas grandes de edad tipo 70 años.muchas gracias por volver.

    • Eduardo Cardenal

      Estimado, no entendí su consulta. ¿A qué se refiere con bonos soberanos para la etapa que comienza del blanqueo?

  15. Capitán

    Si me permiten participar del foro lo agradeceré. Soy inversor novato pero con mucha dedicación.
    Me encanto la nota. Y el foro de primera.
    Hace bastante que mantengo COME y sigo pensando que por Elliot debe volar.
    Pampa, hipotecario e YPF mis papeles

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  18. Buenas tardes, pregunta para el Sr, Tavares o alguien que entienda,
    tengo acciones de hace mas de 3 años , no estoy inscripto en afip porque di de baja mi actividad y solo tengo cuil y no esta activo por la baja de la actividad y entiendo que los que tenemos acciones argentinas estan exentas de impuestos por lo que no estamos obligados a tributar .
    Consulta , hay que declarar la tenencia o no hace falta dado que no estoy activo en afip y es como si tubiera plazos fijos que tampoco estan alcanzados , corresponderia a blanqueo o no ya que esta en una cuenta comitente en agente de bolsa y en CNV. Las acciones argentinas y los titulos no pagan bienes personales ni ganancias, por lo que consulto si alguien sabe y puede responder desde ya muchisimas gracias.

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