MEJORA EL INTERES DE LOS PLAZOS FIJOS

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“No hay que llegar a las elecciones con una corrida cambiaria”, pareciera ser la máxima del Banco Central. Ocurre que tras la elección de Zannini como compañero de fórmula de Daniel Scioli y la radicalización del discurso de éste, los inversores se refugiaron en el dólar ante la incertidumbre electoral. Al dólar no le faltaban motivos para subir de precio: se había mantenido completamente quieto durante el primer semestre del año a pesar de una inflación que osciló entre el 20% y el 25% anual. Otro motivo es el sostenido crecimiento del déficit fiscal, que obligó al Banco Central y al Tesoro a acumular un stock de deuda en pesos sideral para no inundar la plaza financiera con emisión descontrolada. Por supuesto que con un déficit creciente más el interés de la deuda anterior en pesos, la presión sobre la emisión de nueva deuda es cada vez mayor.

Sin embargo, hasta principios de junio el dólar se mantuvo controlado por la expectativa del mercado de un cambio de clima inversor tras las elecciones. Por ello la transformación del discurso de Scioli impactó directamente en el dólar al aumentar la posibilidad de no corregir los serios desequilibrios fiscales de las políticas actuales. Para combatir la demanda de dólares, el Banco Central decidió forzar a los bancos a pagar una mayor tasa de interés por los depósitos minoristas. Hasta la semana pasada, el mínimo para depósitos a 30 días era de 0,87 veces la tasa de Lebacs (Letras del Banco Central) a 90 días. Aproximadamente resultaba en 22,89% y aumentaba si el plazo del depósito era mayor. Con la nueva normativa, el coeficiente se elevó a 0,93 veces y se aumentó los depósitos alcanzados por la tasa mínima (antes eran depósitos de personas físicas hasta $ 350.000 y ahora es cualquier persona hasta $ 1.000.000). La tasa anual mínima para depósitos a 30 días aumentó a 23,58% a partir del lunes pasado.

Por primera vez en la última década la tasa de depósitos a plazo fijo representa para el inversor minorista un retorno similar a la inflación. Ello lo convierte en una opción viable para mantener el valor en el tiempo con un riesgo sensiblemente bajo. El riesgo asociado al plazo fijo en pesos está más vinculado al hecho de invertir en una tasa fija en un contexto cambiante, pero no representa riesgos sobre el capital invertido. En el contexto actual, eso se traduciría en la posibilidad que aumente la inflación o se devalúe el dólar. En esos casos, la inversión habría resultado insuficiente. Sin embargo, es sabido que el dólar tiene momentos de fuerte variación y períodos de quietud, mientras que la tasa de interés en pesos es un retorno constante. Tampoco hay que pensar que “perderse” una devaluación puntual inhibe la inversión en tasa de interés, ya que también hay que ponderar el tiempo que se invirtió en tasa de interés cuando el dólar estuvo quieto.

Los depósitos a plazo son una buena opción actual para el inversor conservador que seguramente le terminará asegurando mantener el valor de su ahorro comparado con la inflación. Para buscar algo más de beneficio y cobertura cambiaria, el inversor puede optar por los Bonar 2024.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 2.8.2015

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