MAS DUDAS SOBRE EL PROXIMO CICLO

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Ya durante las semanas anteriores el mercado había comenzado a ajustar o detener su suba por el repunte de Daniel Scioli como presidenciable. Ahora, más allá de la situación, que no ha cambiado, comienzan a surgir dudas entre los analistas respecto de la simpleza o dificultad de llevar adelante la dura tarea de corregir los fuertes desequilibrios heredados. Los tres más fuertes son el cepo cambiario, la alta inflación inercial y el altísimo nivel de déficit fiscal, superior a 5 puntos del PBI.

En particular, las dudas respecto del cepo cambiario yacen en la velocidad en que pueda ser removido y obtener finalmente un mercado de cambios libre, con la obvia presencia del Banco Central controlando la cotización tal como ocurre en cualquier país del mundo (y durante el kirchnerismo hasta el 2011). La demora puede afectar sensiblemente la cotización de los bonos “dólar-linked” que vencen durante el 2016, justamente porque su principal ganancia está en la valorización del dólar oficial.

Del lado de los títulos que ajustan por CER (índice directamente vinculado al IPC), la demanda se mantuvo firme en los bonos largos porque aún se espera que las estadísticas del INDEC se normalicen poco después de asumir el próximo gobierno. Actualmente “los largos” mantienen rendimientos del 6% más la inflación oficial, que si ésta llegara a seguir la inflación real constituiría un excelente rendimiento. Por ello se apunta a que el año que viene estos bonos pasen a rendir entre 4% y 5% de manera relativamente segura. También tendrían un plus adicional si el IPC se normaliza antes de una eventual devaluación, ya que parte de ella es capturada por la suba de precios de productos vinculados al dólar.

Por otro lado, los inversores comenzaron a centrarse más en los títulos largos en dólares. Si bien en conflicto con los fondos buitre es de los temas más complicados a resolver, por la negociación que implicará (actualmente no hay y se llegará sin ningún tipo de avance al 2016), estos bonos responden más rápidamente a expectativas y no necesitan de ningún hecho concreto, a diferencia de los “dólar-linked” (que necesitan liberación del cepo) y del CER (necesitan estadísticas precisas). De modo que los Discount bajo ley argentina son la alternativa de elección. Porque en un buen escenario se valorizarían por su alta duración, y en un mal escenario –donde las expectativas no se cumplan- se cuenta con un cupón de interés alto para ir recuperando parte de la inversión. Una inversión más conservadora es el Bonar 2024, que mantiene un cupón alto pero se acorta la duración. Y una más arriesgada es el bono Par bajo ley argentina, que alarga la duración pero tiene un bajo cupón de interés (apuesta más fuerte a un escenario positivo).

Por último, los bonistas también pueden aprovechar este momento de tasas de interés aceptables en comparación con la inflación para realizar inversiones seguras en bonos Badlar o incluso en los nuevos bonos que pagan la tasa de las Letras del Banco Central a 90 días (26,22% anual, aproximadamente).

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 12.4.2015

4.811 comentarios

  1. javier aguirre

    SR Héctor Tavares, disculpe pero insisto con GFG, es el primer banco cta sueldo , y el primero en ctas pymes, el tercero en prestamos y el cuarto en depósitos.
    Me parece a mi a menos de 30$ es comprable (yo por las dudas compre ), y una pregunta que para mi es muy importante ,¿ Tarjeta Naranja (7200000 de plásticos, numero uno del país) esta dentro del GFG? porque una vez reactivado el país con un gobierno medianamente cuerdo(no tanto, sino termino medio alcanza) este no será un “gigante dormido”, ¿ o lo veo muy simple y no es asi ?, y también Efectivo Si – Tarjeta Nevada esta también en GFG ? pero principalmente Tarjeta Naranja para mi es importante si es del GFG

    Gracias por sus respuestas siempre muy coherentes, y les agradezco a los del foro que son muy importantes para los que recién empezamos. Nos vemos , Javier.

  2. htavares

    La tarjeta Naranja tengo entendido que es propiedad del GFG. Coincido con Ud. pero los bancos van a estar correlacionados con las encuestas electorales ya que subieron bastante. Además, esta es semana de opciones

  3. javier aguirre

    Si entiendo , Héctor pero en caso que gane Daniel Scioli no veo una diferencia grande en las principales medidas a tomar( inflación- cepo- y cambiar el tándem Teherán- Caracas- Bs As, por otro que nos reditué en negocios.
    Yo creo que gane quien gane el país cambia por mas que el análisis macro no es el mejor, y si bajan ciertas acciones para mi son oportunidad de compra, como este caso de GFG, solamente habrá que esperarlas un tiempito.

    Gracias por su atención SR Héctor Tavares, nos vemos, Javier

  4. Luciano

    DEJAN UN PAIS DESTRUIDO Y MILLONES DE ARGENTINOS CONVERTID0S EN REHENES DEL CLIENTELISMO. DESDE SUS LUJOSAS MANSIONES, SUS PISOS EN PUERTO MADERO, SUS INVERSIONES EN EL EXTERIOR SE RIEN DE NOSOTROS. ELLOS YA SE LLENARON LOS BOLSILLOS POR VARIAS GENERACIONES. LA JUSTICIA? BIEN GRACIAS.

  5. horacio garetto

    ¿Alguien en este foro tiene conocimiento de cual es el “ticker” de los Bonac, los bonos estos de los que habla Cardenal en su nota?
    O bien es que todavía no tienen ticker?

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