LUEGO DE COMERCIAL, AHORA SE MIRA A PESA -la nota de la semana-

 

petrobras_logo

 

 

Llegó la hora de la verdad en el tema: COMERCIAL DEL PLATA y PESA. Se confirma que COMPAÑÍA GRAL. DE COMBUSTIBLES (70% grupo EURNEKIAN y 30% COMERCIAL DEL PLATA) adquirieron las inversiones de PESA en SANTA CRUZ por u$S 101 millones. Si bien prevalece el axioma de “se compra con el rumor y se vende con la noticia” corresponde ir mas allá, independientemente de la repercusión inmediata de las cotizaciones, especialmente en momentos cercanos al ejercicio de opciones donde ganaron claramente los compradores. Ambas, previo a esta confirmación mejoraron sus cotizaciones, por lo que resulta lógico una “toma de ganancias”. Pero existe un “mas allá”. Analistas especializados aseguran que el precio del petróleo llegó a su “piso” y que su techo futuro no volverá a superar los U$S90 el barril, por lo que el sector tenderá a un paulatino repunte. COMERCIAL DEL PLATA se beneficia por cuanto CÍA GENERAL DE COMBUSTIBLES amplia su capacidad productiva y en gas se favorece por cuanto la mayor producción será considerada a $7.50 el millón de B.T.U por entrar en el Plan “Gas plus”. Pero también Comercial del Plata se destaca por el desarrollo de su controlada METROTEL que satisface la comunicación “on line” de la colonia Argentina en MIAMI con su país.

A su vez PESA obtiene liquidez (us$ 101 millones) para reinvertir en Neuquén donde posee sus mejores áreas, desprendiéndose de áreas en Santa Cruz, algunas de ellas no tan rentables (“maduras”) Lo más importante es que trascendió que la operación le dejaría, según información de la Empresa, una utilidad neta de U$S 64 millones que tendría que ser contabilizada en el 1º Trimestre. Ello significa que el 1º Trimestre de no tener resultados negativos extras, y bajo esta hipótesis, traerá resultados positivos no menos a $640 millones, cuando en todo el Ejercicio anterior gano $458 millones, luego de previsionar en el último trimestre $1.200 millones  por ajustar sus inversiones  al nuevo valor del petróleo. Por otra parte, por las cantidades negociadas actualmente ¿Cuánto tardara en volver al panel de lideres?

Héctor Tavares

 

3.460 comentarios

  1. Jose Lobo

    Hector, se ve para abril una migracion de los bancon al petroleo. Toma de ganancias por un lado y buqueda de un precio de equilibrio por el otro. Habra llegado la hora de PBR y TS? Cuan abrupta puede ser la caida de GGAL y BMA?

  2. javier osvaldo

    Sr Hector Tavares : me parece que BPAT 24,60$- GFG 28,15$- ERAR 7,99$ estan para comprar ¿puede ser?

  3. htavares

    No creo en movimientos bruscos en el panel líder. Los ADR ayer bastante sostenidos sin grandes cambios. Los bancos evolucionarán en función de las futuras encuestas políticas. Lo mismo que las exportadoras como ERAR. A mayores perspectivas de cambios económicos, iran para arriba y recíprocamente………….

  4. Fede

    Hector, el 17/04 hay una asamblea extraordinaria de CGC para definir aumento de capital via aportes irrevocables por parte de los accionistas, es decir por parte de Eurnekian y por parte de COME.
    Este aumento de capital seria para que CGC haga una oferta por la destilería de PESA en Bahia Blanca y la red de 100 estaciones de servicios que, según rumores, ya figuran a la venta en los EECC de Petrobras.
    ¿usted cree factible que una de las posibilidades de COME para hacer esos aportes irrevocables sea lanzando un ADR en el NYSE?….

  5. htavares

    Para Walter: Hay que mirar el futuro y no el pasado. Hay que actuar con el cerebro y no con el corazón. Si miramos al pasado, nunca hubiésemos comprado COME (con su nefasta historia) a 0,70 centavos hace menos de un año. Saludos
    Fede:: Con los resultados negativos que todavía tiene COME es casi imposible que cotice en NY. No es lo mismo para CGC, que es parte de COME. Sin embargo, no creo que por ahora se de esa situación. Ojalá me equivoque.
    Gracias a todos x escribir.

  6. Fede

    Hector gracias por respondernos y tener este espacio para compartir ideas!
    Según interpreto los RNA negativos de COMR no llegan a 260 millones al 31/12/2014…con los números del 1er trimestre q van a tener un resultado extra de 93 millones que al 31/12/2014 no fue reconocido + 2do trimestre donde ya van a impactar los números de las nuevas joyitas Gasiferas-Petroleras que desde el 1/04 flamean la bandera de CGC…yo creo que los RNA negativos van a ser historia!
    Por otro lado me mata la intriga de como COME va a poder hacer frente a sus aportes irrevocables en CGC? Mas si el fin es adquirir esta destilería y las 100 estaciones de servicio q aun son de Petrobras! Si no es vía ADR, será mediante una emisión local? En ambos casos no me parecería raro que desde adentro quieran llevar la cotización para arriba para que la recaudación sea mas suculenta! Usted que cree Hector?
    Ultimo punto que me llama la atención es que históricamente en come se lanzaban mas de 110 millones de papeles y este ejercicio abril no hay mucho mas q 20 millones…

  7. Roberto

    Hector, gracias por tus notas y por responder las preguntas de los lectores. Es todo muy interesante, las notas y los intercambios de abajo. Saludos. RAA.

  8. Tavares
    Author

    Coincido con Fede sobre la exigua vida de los Rnegativos de COME. Pero por lo menos se extinguirán en buena parte de este ejercicio. Todavía le falta para WS (me parece). Pueden lanzar una suscripción a un precio por encima de su valor de mercado para que la capte exclusivamente EurneKian. No sería malo para los minoritarios y de este modo se facilitarían los futuros negocios, incluido el ADR. Ojo, es una idea.

  9. Estimado Hector
    Estoy posicionado en Polledo(pollo, para los amigos) y Caputo
    Como ve la chance de que pollo llegue al ansiado peso ($1.00)?
    Y CAPUTO ?Perspectivas?
    Agradecido

  10. CReo que BHIPOTECARIO está barata. NO solo tiene atado el procrear, para bien o para mal, sino que está algo atrasada, en humilde opinion

  11. htavares

    Angel: Polledo es una incógnita siempre. Todo es aleatorio. No entro. En Hipotecario no me gusta el Grupo. Caputo está barata y anda bien. Buen PER para tener.
    Charly: Htavares hay uno solo y soy yo. En el único lugar en que estoy es en esta página web.

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  355. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

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  364. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  370. Hey this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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  398. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  408. First off I want to say great blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your thoughts before writing. I have had a tough time clearing my mind in getting my thoughts out there. I do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any recommendations or hints? Many thanks!

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  411. My developer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on several websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it? Any help would be really appreciated!

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