LOS TITULOS OLVIDADOS

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El período en que los inversores confiaban en un dólar “planchado” y se contentaban con inversiones de corto plazo en activos de tasa de interés fija en pesos (“hacer tasa”, en la jerga) parece haber llegado a su fin. A partir de la designación de Zannini como vicepresidente del principal candidato (de acuerdo a las encuestas) y del temor de una continuación de las actuales políticas llevó a revivir el apetito por el dólar y la operatoria de “contado con liquidación”. La misma consiste en adquirir con pesos títulos que se vendan en dólares en el exterior, realizando una operatoria encubierta de cambio (pesos locales por dólares en Nueva York). El “contado con liqui” había caído en desgracia principalmente por la recesión y por el encarecimiento del costo financiero de los pesos, por las perspectivas de cambio de aire para el 2016 y por las presiones formales e informales a los agentes que realizaban la operatoria.

Los títulos en dólares, a pesar de ello, continuaron inmutables en cuanto a su rendimiento en esa moneda fuerte. Vale decir que lo que ha subido fue la cotización del dólar y no el precio en dólares de los mismos. Esto ocurre cuando hay mucha demanda local de los títulos pero en las plazas financieras del exterior continúan cotizando al mismo nivel. La migración hacia los activos dolarizados dejó relegados los activos en pesos, en especial los bonos ajustables por CER. El resto de los títulos continúan siendo bien demandados por inversores institucionales que no asumen volatilidades importantes.

Los bonos CER (un índice directamente relacionado al IPC del Indec) tuvieron una furiosa demanda en el primer trimestre del 2015 cuando Mauricio Macri repuntó en las encuestas. A fines del 2014, los títulos ofrecían un rendimiento del orden del 10% anual, que ajustado por la inflación oficial totalizaba aproximadamente entre un 25% y 28% anual. Lo que el mercado observó entonces fue que si el IPC reflejase índices de inflación confiables, un rendimiento normal para un bono a 20 años que ajusta por inflación debería ser del 4/5% o incluso menos. El repunte de Macri y la mayor expectativa de una normalización del INDEC hizo que rápidamente los títulos fueran a buscar un punto intermedio alrededor del 6,5%, lo que implicó una suba del precio para los bonos largos entre el 40% y el 80% en tan sólo 4 meses.

Desde entonces, tal escenario fue perdiendo entusiasmo a cuenta del mayor temor de una continuación de las políticas actuales. Sumado a ello, con el repunte del dólar se abandonaron las apuestas en estos títulos, que volvieron a ubicarse con rendimientos del 9% anual (por sobre el ajuste de CER). Con el nivel de inflación oficial actual, entre el 14% y 15%, el rendimiento total de un bono largo es del 25%/26% en pesos. Sin embargo, la posibilidad de volver a retornos del 6,5% o incluso menos si cualquiera sea el próximo presidente da muestras de normalizar la situación del INDEC sigue existiendo. Ese escenario implicaría subas de entre 28% (DICP) y 44% (PARP) adicionales al rendimiento anual de cada título.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 5.7.2015

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  1. Francisco

    Hector,

    A que bono de ley argentina te inclinarías para un mediano/largo plazo? AY24, DICA?

    Saludos

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  258. Stanowiac w sum profesjonalnie wykonywajacym zagrywka wspierajacym sie o nieorzeczone sposoby czynu, ktore oprocz tego podtrzymujemy znaczacym doznaniem egzystujemy w poziomie zaoferowac wyprobowane dodatkowo w kompletow energiczne tryby medycyny jednostek sposrod tematami erekcyjnymi. Teskniac zapewnic syta dyskrecje lokalnych poslug wreczamy pomiedzy innymi rowniez pomagier mailowa. Wiedzione poprzez lokalnych znawcow czynnosci pomogly wprzody nader wielu osobom.

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