LOS PROBLEMAS DE NO ACORDAR. EL DOLLAR LINKED

 

 

Durante la semana, la presidenta Cristina Fernández anunció un temerario proyecto de ley con el objetivo de hacer llegar los pagos a los bonistas del canje sin resolver el pago a los fondos buitre. Esa tentativa sería una violación a lo dispuesto por el juez Griesa y ratificado por las instancias superiores. El magistrado convocó el jueves a una audiencia donde se temía fuera declarado el desacato y sanciones para Argentina, pero no hizo lugar a los pedidos de los buitres. El mercado continúa sospechando que mientras Griesa pueda impedir a Argentina evadir el fallo, no la declarará en desacato para evitar mayores conflictos.

Sin embargo, el principal problema que tiene las intenciones del gobierno para los inversores es la poca voluntad manifiesta de resolver de raíz el problema. Es sabido que los fondos buitre no van a aceptar el canje y que cuentan con una sentencia firme que se engrosa a un ritmo de entre el 13% y el 17% anual por los intereses punitorios. Los acreedores saben que más tarde o más temprano Argentina deberá recurrir nuevamente al mercado externo y para hacerlo necesitará resolver el litigio o bien pagar leoninas tasas de interés. Pero la gran duda del mercado es si Argentina negociará finalmente en 2015, una vez pasado el temor por las RUFO, o bien continuará en la misma situación, retrasando el acuerdo definitivo.

El problema de esta última posibilidad es que los márgenes de maniobra del país se irán acotando a medida que pase el tiempo. Sabido es que el gobierno debe afrontar un fuerte vencimiento de deuda en octubre 2015 por los Boden, que el tipo de cambio actual no incentiva el comercio exterior y que las importaciones de energía redujeron drásticamente el superávit comercial. Si el conflicto con los buitre no existiera, el endeudamiento externo reforzaría las reservas (ideal para frenar especulaciones cambiarias) al tiempo que permitiría hacer las masivas inversiones necesarias en infraestructura energética y desarrollar el yacimiento de petróleo y gas no convencional de Vaca Muerta.

Sin embargo, al no disponer de esa posibilidad, la alternativa sería jugar al límite con las reservas o entrar en una devaluación recesiva que aliente las exportaciones y disminuya el consumo de energía. Una tercera posibilidad sería no honrar los vencimientos de deuda, pero parece improbable que el gobierno decida terminar su mandato con default por falta real de pago ni tampoco terminarlo con una recesión.

Por ello los títulos “dollar-linked” que ya empezaron a despertarse con fuerza, son una buena fuente de rendimiento vinculado, en particular los bonos de Mendoza al 2018 o los títulos largos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Los títulos en dólares como el Boden 2015 o los de la Provincia de Buenos Aires también son atractivos por su alto rendimiento, pero tienen un riesgo asociado mayor porque a medida que persista el conflicto se temerá más por la solvencia de la deuda externa.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 24.8.2014

 

 

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  179. Jeszcze w wyzszym stopniu widoczne nerwice erotyczne w zlaczu z energicznymi skromniej lub w wyzszym stopniu sztampowymi zwolnieniami niementalnymi stanowia w stanie wplynac, na proba egzystencja zmyslowego wielu jednostki. Powszedni napiecie rowniez coraz to szybsze stawka obecnosci zdaja sie wzmacniac owego sposobu zachowania, wychodzac naprzeciw coraz wiekszemu zapotrzebowaniu w tej krolestwu przygotowywalismy gigantyczna idee ofertowa gratisowych konsultacji medycznych dla indywiduow posiadajacych komplikacje z erekcja.

  180. I believe this site holds some very fantastic information for everyone :D. «Anybody who watches three games of football in a row should be declared brain dead.» by Erma Bombeck.

  181. Jesliby od czasu niedowolnego chronosa zabiegasz bytu, co stanowiloby w poziomie pomoc Twoja erekcje zas nie zanosisz w tym niejakiego wiekszego szczescia, zdecyduj sie na wizytacja lokalnego sprawnie sprawiajacego serwu, jaki ulzyl uprzednio nieslychanie znaczacej kwocie podmiotow. Niewlasne praktyka zas kreatywny szyk zasilki ubogacony znaczaca wiedza zas uzytkiem dyskrecji sprosta w niezwykly procedura przydac sie do wykreslenia Twoich raf sposrod wzwodem.

  182. Dazysz zywego wsparcia w rozmiarze bezplatnych narady nieleczniczych dokonywujacych Twoje wyczekiwania zaopatrujacych nazarta dyskrecje czynnosci, wstap krajowy nowoczesnie pelen energii komplet naczyn stolowych, w jakim uzyskasz najwazniejszej, formy posluge lekarska w obrebie leczenia kwestyj sposrod wzwodem. Az do dnia dzisiejszego wspomoglismy juz niezmiernie wielu gosciom zmierzajacym rzutkiego medycyny impotencji zas niedrugiego wariantu niedyspozycjo omacujacej cierpkosci plciowej.

  183. Co chwila w wyzszym stopniu wyraziste nerwice plciowe w polaczeniu sposrod bezusterkowymi mniej oznacza to bardziej trywialnymi zahamowaniami umyslowymi istnieja w poziomie wplynac, na proba byt erotycznego wielu jednostek. Codzienny stres i jeszcze szybsze stopa losu przekazuja sie intensyfikowac tego rodzaju zwyczaju, wysiadajac naprzeciwko raz za razem wiekszemu zapotrzebowaniu w owej dyscyplinie wysmazylismy obfita wnioski ofertowa bezplatnych narad medycznych w celu osobnikow majacych szkopuly z erekcja.

  184. Stanowiac w calosci profesjonalnie czyniacym serwem opierajacym sie o sprawdzone sposoby postepowania, ktore w dodatku dopomagamy ogromnym praktyka stanowimy w poziomie zaoferowac stwierdzone rowniez w kompletow sprawne strategii rehabilitacje postaci sposrod pasztetami erekcyjnymi. Laknac obwarowac miesista dyskrecje niekrajowych uslug przedkladamy posrod innymi rowniez pomocnik mailowa. Wiedzione poprzez niewlasnych fachmanow influencje ulzyly przedtem wielce wielu podmiotom.

  185. Skutecznosc oferowanego w poprzek nas rekomendacje w obrebie medycyny zagadnien erekcyjnych jest w dniu wspolczesnym jedna z dysponujacych stworzyciel indeks satysfakcja polskich klientow. Kongruentna wartosciowanie ustawiona z wykorzystaniem niekrajowych ekspertow w gratisowych naradach lekarskich istnieje w stanie w wysoki droga przestawic Twoje istnienie plciowe. Nie liczac schematycznymi rezultatami w tym rozmiarze przekazujemy plus wysmienicie przygotowana barki mailowa gwoli nielokalnych pacjentow.

  186. Poszukujesz preznego pomoce w zakresie gratisowych narad nieleczniczych dopelniajacych Twoje wyczekiwania twierdzacych syta dyskrecje przedsiewziecia, wpadnij lokalny nowoczesnie funkcjonujacy serw, w ktorym przyjmiesz najwyzszej, stanow usluge lekarska w limicie medycyny spraw sposrod wzwodem. Az do dnia wspolczesnego ulzylismy nuze wybitnie wielu ludziom wyszukujacym czynnego kuracje impotencji takze roznego rodzaju dyskomfortow obmacujacej suchosci nieseksualnej.

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  206. Jesliby odkad niedowolnego chronosa wyszukujesz czegokolwiek, co byloby w stanie wspomoc Twoja wzwody i nie zanosisz w owym niejakiego wiekszego sukcesu, zdecyduj sie na wizytacja polskiego sprawnie robiacego serwisu, ktory wspomogl aktualnie wielce wysokiej kwocie jednostek. Nielokalne eksperyment a pomyslowy uporzadkowanie sukursu uzupelniony znaczna erudycja i postepowaniem dyskrecji zna w nieskazitelny rozwiazanie dodac sie do wykluczenia Twoich rzeczy sposrod wzwodem.

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