LOS PESOS BUSCAN RUMBO, por Eduardo Cardenal

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El Banco Central decidió continuar con su idea de privilegiar la tasa de pases como referencia en detrimento de las Lebacs. Los bancos terminaron de desarmar y dejaron de tener posiciones relevantes de Lebacs, que rinden entre 21% y 22% dependiendo el plazo. Ahora con la tasa de pases pasivos a 7 días al 24% anual, los excedentes de liquidez van a ese mercado, mientras que el resto de los institucionales que no pueden acceder a él buscan destino en otros instrumentos. Incluso el plazo fijo volvió a ser una alternativa de inversión ya que la banca mayorista está pagando entre 20% y 22% en los bancos de primera línea y arriba de eso en bancos de segunda línea. Como dato relevante, algunos bancos han comenzado a pagar más por los depósitos de mayor plazo, algo que no se vio durante todo el 2016 dada la “curva invertida” que promovía el Banco Central.

La política de des-incentivación de Lebacs se espera que continúe el mes que viene en la licitación mensual. Lo más probable es que la autoridad monetaria mantenga el corredor de pases (tasa de referencia para los bancos) y baje la de Letras, ya que demanda no le faltan. La tasa de 24% de pases le da a los bancos un margen para pagar depósitos entre 21% y 22% sin temor, ya que colocando el excedente no perderán margen (el costo de fondeo incluyendo encajes e impuestos lo deja aproximadamente neutro). Con tasas activas cercanas al doble y un crédito que empieza a mostrar más demanda, en el corto plazo no parecería que vayan a pagar menos por depósitos. Ello, junto al problema del exceso de billetes que el Central no toma, confluye en una tasa Badlar sostenida. No sería de extrañar verla por encima de la tasa de Lebac en el corto plazo.

Por eso los pesos volaron en busca de activos Badlar. Los primeros en sufrir los embates en bolsa han sido los soberanos (los más líquidos), que ya cotizan en niveles que rondan el interés variable puro sin ningún premio. Lo razonable sería pensar que el resto de los pesos buscaran destino en el dólar, pero con la oferta de dólares que continúa asomándose continuamente el mercado está convencido que se planchará por al menos el primer cuatrimestre.

El debate ahora se centra en los bonos ajustables por CER. Estos títulos siempre se mostraron los últimos en reaccionar por la aversión que los inversores le tienen dado el “pecado original” que significó el manejo discrecional de sus condiciones de emisión. Esto no es exclusivo solo del gobierno kirchnerista con la manipulación de los índices de precios. El mercado no se olvida que la administración macrista eligió índices de acuerdo a la conveniencia del momento cuando el IPC Nacional se encontraba suspendido. El 2016 comenzó con un índice mixto entre CABA y San Luis, pero con el aumento tarifario se decidió utilizar únicamente el de San Luis, donde el índice iba a estar mucho menos afectado que el de la capital nacional. Para colmo, luego se publicó el índice nacional con precios del área metropolitana que fue afectado por los fallos judiciales que ordenaron retrotraer las tarifas. El bonista no solo no tuvo el “beneficio” del incremento tarifario sino que tuvo que pagar por el retroceso, que parcialmente se pudo compensar después.

Más allá de eso, los bonos cortos ajustaron rápidamente, desde el NF18 (devaluación – 0,50%) al TC21 (devaluación + 1,80%) y los bonos más largos han demorado en reaccionar. El DICP ofrece retornos de 3,50% por encima de la inflación y más largo aún con el PARP y CUAP se encuentran en niveles de 4,2% y 4,7%. Este último se convirtió en el instrumento en pesos con mayor rendimiento del mercado, con una reacción mucho más lenta debida a su iliquidez. No sería de extrañar un rápido ajuste el mes que viene cuando el Central vuelva a bajar las tasas del mundo financiero no bancario.

674 comentarios

  1. LAS1976

    Maestro Tavares: Es racional lo de Camuzzi??? Todavia hay tiempo para meterse ?? Compre a 3000 acciones a $ 18 hace 20 dias y no me metí mas porque me parecia que habia subido mucho. Ayer entre en $ 28 con otras 1000 y no me meti con mas porque tambien pense que habia subido mucho. AHORA ESTA ORILLANDO LOS $ 31 CON UNA SUBA DE CASI EL % 8!!! Digame por favor su opinion y que proyeccion le ve al papel en punto a una continuidad de la suba en el corto y mediano plazo.
    Gracias y saludos.

    • Sincero

      Lo que no es nada racional son los aumentos,en menos de un año el m3 pasó de $0,17 a $1,2 para los consumos más bajos.Un vecino que tiene dos bebes usa calefacción a gas y le llegó la boleta en la categoria de $3,6 el m3,en Mar del Plata los inviernos son muy frios si consume lo mismo en julio calcula una boleta de $4000.Es un gobierno de ineptos y soberbios ,si siguen así van a perder las elecciones por goleada .No festejen la suba de los servicios porque son impagables.

      • LAS1976

        Gracias sincero. De haber tenido tiempo para estudiar bien la empresa y los aumentos de tarifas del sector no hubiera metido la pata de quedarme en el molde. Tuve una avalancha de trabajo y no pude. Son aumentos exorbitantes realmente. Tal vez tengan que recular cuando empiecen a llegar las tarifas abultadas del invierno. Ni te cuento si es un invierno como el del año pasado. La gente va a estar que arde. Lamentablemente es mucho sinceramiento junto. Se palpa en la calle que puede venirse una derrota significativa para el gobierno en las próximas elecciones de medio termino. Con % 30 de desocupación heredada y con la presión impositiva al máximo y sin posibilidades de ampliarla milagros tampoco pueden hacer. La tienen complicada.

        • Sincero

          Es cierto que heredaron un desorden total pero estos aumentos de tarifas son desproporcionados.Reconozco que estaba barato pero ahora se pasaron de rosca,igual que en la electricidad .Tenés que estar atento porque no sabemos que va a pasar cuando lleguen las boletas de invierno,por ahora aprovechá la fiesta,es mi humilde opinión.

  2. Anibal

    Que esta pasando con Consultatio, no aflojan con la venta ni en días con poco volumen, es posible que los inversores que tienen metidos millones acá sean tan gilipollas al extremo para vender un papel que ganará casi lo que vale por bolsa.

    Me empieza a entrar duda si acá se esta cocinando algo que no sabemos y nos la van a poner a todos sin vaselina.

    • LAS1976

      Consultatio una garcha. Me clave 3 veces con esa especulando con una suba inminente, por suerte desarme rápido y arbitre a electricidad, TGN y autopistas. Ahora pienso sumar más gas. Si me quedaba con esos papeles de CTIO más tiempo me perdía la extraordinaria suba de las otras. Con lo que comenta PEPE mucho más para pensar no hay. Tienen que meter en cuarentena a esa acción como hacían en el medioevo con los infectados por la peste negra.

  3. MAVERICK

    CTIO.
    Les recomiendo una vez mas que bajen un poco la ansiedad. Sino es autodestructivo llevarnos por rumores.

    La unica verdad es la realidad. ESPEREMOS EL BALANCE.

    Saludos

    MAVERICK

    • MAVERICK

      Yo a veces no puedo dejar pasar ciertos comentarios con malicia. Pero deberia hacer lo mismo que vos… pero no puedo. Siempre que puedo si leo una falacia trato de desmentirla. Y los rumores… CON EL BALANCE SABREMOS TODA LA VERDAD.

      Saludos!

      MAVERICK

  4. Pablo

    Yo no le daria bola a caperucita. Un personaje que aparece en las correcciones diciendo que esta liquido esperando abajo (o sea que se las sabe todas y siempre vende en maximos). Es tan vendehumo como el quetejedi de rava. Una lastima que le sigan el juego.

  5. Cristaldo

    Es muy curioso que quienes dejaron un déficit fiscal de $ 400.0000.000.000.- si. Esa cifra hoy quieren decir a los argentinos que es lo qué hay que hacer…. Nuestto país no aprende más!!!! Es muy loco todo. Y este gobierno que mucho no ayuda, claro

    • BICHO

      Que mucho no te ayuda a vos que no sos rico a los rico si los ayuda sino preguntales lo bien que les va! Estan de fiesta y el resto enfiestado lastima los que pensaron y votaron pensando que iban a quedar de los que estan de fiesta y estan hechos brochet esperando un milagro.

  6. Rodolfo

    Sr. Barandista le copio un comentario del foro de Rava donde se comenta el tema de la suscripción en San Miguel, dice lo siguiente:

    “Para aclarar algunas cosas que se preguntan sobre SAMI X…

    1) Es un cupon que da el derecho, no la obligacion, de comprar acciones adicionales. Comunmente denominado derecho de acrecer segun la ley 19550.
    2) Quien ejerce ese derecho va a recibir SI o SI las acciones que solicite al precio promedio que determine el book building
    3) Quien quiera comprar por afuera del derecho del punto 1) tendra que cargar su oferta en el sistema de book building que es publico y que lo operan los agentes de bolsa. Podra hacerlo a precio fijo (denominado competitivo) o a precio abierto (no competitivo). Actualmente hay unas 20 ordenes cargadas por 28.000 papeles aproximandamente. Cuando se acerque la fecha, estimo que es numero crecera notoriamente.
    4) Obviamente los primeros que se aseguraran comprar las nuevas acciones son quienes tengan SAMI X, el resto tendra que comprar las que queden remanentes producto del NO ejercicio del derecho del punto 1).
    5) Es una emision relativamente chica que no deberia tener casi inconvenientes en ser colocada en su totalidad. Ademas no me imagino al management lanzando este tipo de suscripcion sin cerciorarse previamente de tener cierta “masa critica” para la misma.

    Aca nadie da consejos sobre que hacer porque cada uno es grandecito…..simplemente puedo decir que hay que mirar el comportamiento del papel desde el lanzamiento de la suscripcion y como viene la carga de ordenes del book building para ir sacando conclusiones. El mercado le asigna casi nulo valor a SAMI X quizas porque no entiende bien el proceso o porque no esta dispuesto a suscribir nuevas acciones sin conocer previamente el precio al que se las asignaran. Si Yo fuera un fondo grande que quiere entrar, sin hacer mucho ruido y teniendo la certeza de comprar las acciones que tengo por objetivo, claramente el vehiculo para hacerlo es SAMI X.

    Saludos

    Patrick
    Arriba
    A partir de ahora le expongo lo que yo se:
    SAMI X es un cupón que el que tiene acciones de San Miguel ya lo dispone. Lo que hay que hacer es llamar al operador de uno y avisarle que se va a ejercer el derecho de suscripción. Hay tiempo hasta el 7 de marzo. Se pueden suscribir 1 nueva acción por cada 10 de tenencia. El precio a pagar por cada acción oscila desde $95 hasta $ 135 dependiendo de lo que decida el book building.
    Yo ejercí mi derecho hoy y el día 7 de marzo debo contactarme con mi operador para conocer el precio defintivo.

  7. Cristaldo

    Aunque parezca mi comentario no es político. Es sicologico. Que nos pasa que creemos que el gas es gratis. Que la electricidad es gratis nadie dijo nada Ahora hay que pagar las cosas lo que valen y se produce un escándalo!!!

  8. Rodolfo

    Está en lo cierto Sr. Cristaldo. Yo soy clasista no combativo. Soy fana de la clase media y siento mucha pena por los pobres, porque es gente que no sabe subsistir por sí misma, todo lo esperan del estado. Mi criterio es que si tengo lo suficiente me compro un auto, si no, no lo compro. Acá la gente con baja educación cree que tiene derecho a todo y que a cambio no tiene que poner nada. Eso se lo hizo creer el maldito peronismo que arruinó la posibilidad de que esta sea una gran nación. Cuando la sal pierde su sabor como se la podrá recuperar? Imposible. Cuando los ignorantes creen que tienen derecho a todo y se los incentiva, ¿como se hace para que vuelvan a trabajar? Imposible. Aunque parezca cursi VIVA JULIO ARGENTINO ROCA.

    • Caperucita

      Che…ROCA no era el que mataba aborígenes para robarles las tierras y vender parte a gente de Argentina y otras a terratenientes de Europa? A ese ROCA te referís?

      Que sociedad de mierda, la humanidad entera es una porqueria. Ojalá nos extingamos pronto.
      En teoría estamos en el punto más alto de la curva “J” en el gráfico de la evolución-extinción de las especies.
      Falta poco.
      Ahora, en cuanto al mercado. Tocamos 18500 y salimos nuevamente. Están barriendo a las manos flojas.
      Todavía le creo al driver “mercado emergente”

  9. SIRTHOMASMORE

    Cristaldo y Rodolfo. 100 x 100 acuerdo con Uds. O en la Arg se recupera la cultura del trabajo, o vamos a estar condenados al fracaso eterno. Cierto peronismo, y los K, desde ya, demolieron dos pilares clave: la superación que se consigue vía el esfuerzo, y la educación. Hace 15 que trabajo en educación, y no me crearían si les contara el grado de envilecimiento intelectual y social que se ve en los estudiantes. Y tengo 40, no 80!

  10. marcelo

    Esto es un mensaje para los que operan con opciones, no compren por nada del mundo opciones de comercial del plata, hay toda una mafia atras, que maneja el papel por ya hace muchos años, y lo unico que hacen es lanzar y luego manipular el precio de la accion para que no suba y asi quedarse con el 100% de las primas cobradas, esto lo vienen haciendo los 2 ultimos años, no compres lotes pensando que la accion se vuela y los lotes la siguen, aca es al reves, o sea la accion es un derivado de los lotes, mientras que la gente sigua comprando lotes, la accion jamas va a subir, por lo tanto los lotes tampoco, ya que esta todo manejado como les dije.Espero se den cuenta y no compren mas lotes del papel mas manipulado de la bolsa argentina.

  11. Viento Salvaje

    Barandista, complementando lo que dijo Rodolfo, hay dos tramos para ofertar, el competitivo y el no competitivo.
    En el primero tenes que ofertar y si tu oferta es menor al precio que decida el directorio, perdés el cupón (algo similar a una opción). En el segundo tenés las nuevas acciones aseguradas y al precio que decida el directorio.
    En mi caso voy a optar por el no-competitivo porque no son muchas las que recibiría y me las quiero asegurar. Solo espero que no se zarpen con el precio.
    Ojo, quien no tiene acreditados los cupones SAMIX en su comitente, se lo tiene que reclamar al broker.

  12. Reich

    a) Se pueden vender los cupones SAMIX, si uno opta por no suscribir?
    b) Si uno considera que el precio que estipulen es alto, puede desistir de la oferta que hizo y no suscribir?

  13. Viento Salvaje

    Si Reich, se pueden vender y figura una operación en el bolsar, pero el precio pagado fue bajísimo porque no hay certidumbre de cual va ser el precio de la suscripción.
    Podés desistir y el cupón se pierde. El tema es que cuando termine la suscripción el precio de la acción podría caer porque van a ver mas nominales en el mercado. Igual como pasó con PATY, pero acá no sería para tanto porque las nuevas acciones no llegan al 10% del total.
    O sea lo lógico sería vender el cupón o suscribir en la no-competitiva para asegurarse los pelpas, pero no, no hacer nada.

  14. Reich

    Gracias Viento.., cual es la diferencia entre la fase competitiva y la no competitiva? en esta última no te obligas a precio alguno? Y si te obligaste a un precio mayor al que fije la empresa, igual podes desistir de la operación? Disculpa por mi ignorancia y muchas gracias.

  15. Tavares
    Author

    Las1976: Es difícil opinar en el corto. Ya me conocés. Fundamentos muchos, igual que Cuyana. Sobre precios en el corto, no opino

  16. Rodolfo

    Para pensar…… será sostenible llegar a un Merval de 27.000 puntos….. lo estoy dudando. Fuente: http://www.infobae.com/economia/finanzas-y-negocios/2017/02/15/encrucijada-argentina-apreciacion-cambiaria-endeudamiento-externo-y-deficit-fiscal/

  17. hugote

    les digo algo…yo empece diciendo que pamp va a valer 100 cuando valia 25 y tambien cuando valia 30 y pico y lo sigo diciendo ahora…tambien hable y hablo de capex hace ya varios semanas,y puse 80 pesos , dgcu2 es otro recomendado sin poner precio dije y digo que es la mejor empresa de gas de todas,seria y noble cuando el mercado estaba destruido ganaba plata….teco2,…etc…todo lo que digo:pamp 100 lo ratifico y escribi hace poco que es a mediano plazo…no ahora…ya…nadie puede comprar pamp a 31(que viene 1 o 2 pesos) y creer que ya se va a ir a 100….(aparte bajo a casi 29) y ya la dan por muerta….que pelotu…que son…no saben nada…en bolsa se invierte a largo plazo(un anio)…y sino tomen a tavares que se la paso anios de baja recomendando a todas las basuras gasiferas y electricas y agrometal y come…durante anios y subieron en uno todo lo que bajaron en 5…y tavares esos cinco anios recomendandola…eso es largo plazo…ahora esas basuras se convirtieron en estrellas y ese “charlatan” que las recomendaba en” maestro”….yo sigo diciendo y doy nombre de empresaS…pamp,dgcu2,capex,teco2…compren y cuando baja compren tambien…con un horizonte de aca a fin de anio….40 anios de adiccion bolsera….y paciencia bolsera…capex80…pamp 100…recordaba en el foro de rava huguito decia tenaris 100cuando estaba en 25 y los cortoplacistas cuando bajaba me mataban….y con el tiempo 100 fue una realidad….hagan lo que quieran….

  18. Juan

    Atencion en Gas del Norte con volumen de panel lider en las ultimas semanas….. en las prox semanas se conoceran los ajustes tarifarios del gas

  19. Viento Salvaje

    Reich, en el tramo competitivo tenés que ofertar, poner un precio y si el mismo está debajo del que se fije, no te venden las nuevas acciones. En el no competitivo no tenés que ofertar y tenés las acciones aseguradas al precio que decida el directorio.
    Si te obligas a un precio mayor, recibis las acciones al precio fijado que sería menor.
    O sea el precio va a ser único y es el que fija el directorio. La suscripción se basa en el “bookbuilding”, en el cual se abre un registro o “book” en donde cada potencial suscriptor manifiesta que precio pagaría (competitivo) o acepta directamente el precio que sea (no competitivo) el cual lo termina decidiendo el directorio que solo se obliga a que el mismo sea de $95 a $135 +- 30% (margen muy amplio como veras).
    El bookbuilding fue muy criticado porque no da certidumbre a tal punto que la gestión anterior de la CNV lo había prohibido.
    el tema termina el 07/03, si alguien tiene data como viene la mano, aprovechemos el foro para mantenernos al tanto.

  20. Rodolfo

    Me parece que San Miguel demostró ser una buena inversión para el minoritario como mínimo en todo el último año en que la entré a seguir. Puedo equivocarme porque la bolsa no responde al pensamiento lineal, pero de eso se trata. Como en el póker, quiero ver y pago.

  21. Reich

    Gracias Viento Salvaje muy considerado de tu parte, da gusto compartir un foro con gente como vos y otros con la misma bonhomía.

  22. Viento Salvaje

    Muy buen link Rodolfo!, sabía de la operación por 0,5 (regaló los cupones), pero no las otras a $7.
    Ahora estoy pensando seriamente en tomar ganancias vendiendo acciones y cupones que es la única certeza que tengo.
    No creo que sea para evitar timberos Elio, simplemente el directorio busca maximizar ganancias pero a mi como minoritario la suscripción me da mucha incertidumbre.
    Que pasa si deciden vender a $120 por ejemplo, ni hablar si es 135 +30% y despues el mercado no avala eso y la acción termina valiendo $109,5 como ahora o quizás menos porque van a ver mas papeles. Si es asi donde está el negocio si uno suscribe?.
    Tendrían que haber hecho como la suscripción de PATY donde el precio era unico y bastante menor a lo que salía en el mercado.
    La verdad que no se que hacer porque la empresa es muy solida y en crecimiento pero no entiendo como la CNV avala esta porquería.

  23. carlitos70

    Como explica muy claramente viento salvaje sobre suscrip san miguel _ + 30 ÷. En mi opinion personal me genera incertidumbre. Gracias viento.

  24. Javier Aguirre

    Capu tendria supuestamente un muy buen año, con la obra publica y privada sera una constructora muy buscada ya que trabaja con standares de calidad, supuestamente ek bakance que entra ahora le da muy bien, y principalmente …..TIENE MUCHO FUTURO¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡

    Miercoles empiezo acumular Capu

    NOS VEMOS, JAVIER

  25. Jorge

    Acá los gobiernos peronistas Lo único que enseñaron es a pedir a reclamar derechos jamás se fijan en los derechos de los demás, quieren luz gas transporte educación gratis planes,vivienda y todo sin trabajar y los que se sacrifican estudiando y trabajando son los malos explotadores cipayos etc,ectexplotares,cipayos etc.ect.peor es que quien dejo de trabajar o loquera venia haciendo pierde la voluntad de sacrificio y volver a hacerlo le cuesta mucho y no puede. Y se deja estar .este gobierno esta haciendo lo mejor que se puede,con errores el que no hace no se equivoca. Yo me pregunto quien va a sacar más votos en octubre y no hay ninguna contra que no sea despreciable empezando por massa que cada vez que tuvo oportunidad se mostró como ventanero y extorsionador. Un ejemplo por el cambio del cálculo de las jubilaciones que se paro pero para una jubilación de10000pesos eran 20.mando a que salgan a criticar al gobierno especialmente a macro.ahora alguna se acuerda de que vetaron el 82 movil de que cuando salía una jubilación ya lo hacían mala propósito para tener que hacer juicio y que recurrían todas las resoluciones a la cámara y dejes a la corte aun cuando la corte ya había resueltos casos similares el gobierno no tiene que recurrir lo que ya sabe que va a perder.querian que los jubilados se murieran sin cobrar y ellos seguir robando.asi hay millones de ejemplos.aunque no lo crean barda el el gran dirigente de los maestros que siempre propone huelgas y mas huelgas no es maestro si señores es apenas un preceptor.

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