LOS INVERSORES ESPERAN ENERO PARA TOMAR DECISIONES

 

 

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En un contexto atípico dadas las inestables condiciones macroeconómicas, para extrañeza de los inversores el dólar bursátil continúa manteniendo una tendencia a la baja. Ello a pesar de los duros controles, que deberían encarecer y no abaratar el precio de la fuga de divisas. Por eso la explicación de la caída de precio hay que buscarla por el lado del desinterés en la dolarización, la recesión y la brusca contracción monetaria tras las emisiones de deuda del gobierno para financiar su gasto corriente. También el incremento temporal de reservas tras acuerdos poco transparentes ha disminuido parcialmente el ansia por la divisa norteamericana.

De todas maneras, si se toma en cuenta el precio internacional de los bonos y no la cotización local -que está afectada por los vaivenes cambiarios- los títulos cortos en particular han subido de precio y disminuido su rendimiento consecuentemente. Si bien no son cambios significativos, la diferencia en algunos bonos como el Boden 2015 puede ser notable, que pasó de tener rendimientos superiores al 20% anual hace algunas semanas a ubicarse en torno al 13%. Los bonos Discount, más preferido por aquellos que apuestan por un arreglo con los fondos buitre, se mantienen estables alrededor del 10% anual.

En enero los inversores esperan tener novedades de las intenciones del gobierno de negociar con los fondos buitre para zanjar el asunto. Pasado el históricamente difícil mes de diciembre, caducaría la cláusula RUFO del canje -que supuestamente es el impedimento del gobierno para negociar- el gobierno nacional dejaría de tener las manos atadas y por el lado de la deuda que nació de los canjes 2005 y 2010. La primera señal para solucionar el conflicto debe venir por el lado del Congreso, ya que aún continúa vigente una ley local que prohíbe a funcionarios ofrecer mejores condiciones a aquellos bonistas que hayan iniciado causas contra Argentina respecto de quienes no lo hicieran. También alienta a los inversores el llamativo silencio en torno a las causas en Nueva York, tanto de los fondos buitre como del magistrado Griesa, quien no tomó mayores definiciones más allá de declarar a la República en desacato con la Corte.

Un arreglo que le permitiera al gobierno volver a los mercados de deuda formalmente significaría una segura baja en la tasa de interés soberana. A nivel familiar, cuando una persona se encuentra en regla y puede acceder a mercados formales de crédito consigue condiciones mejores que aquella que debe recurrir a instituciones financieras no reguladas o prestamistas. Del mismo modo, el gobierno podrá adoptar mejores condiciones que con los actuales créditos que consigue de manera bilateral y con cláusulas privadas.

Con el panorama de que se llegue al acuerdo, los títulos más largos como el Discount y el Par requieren de una suba de precio mucho mayor que los bonos cortos como el Boden 2015 o el Bonar X para bajar el rendimiento. Es por ello que los inversores con más apetito de ganancias utilizan al DICA por su mejor recorrido potencial de corto, mientras que los más conservadores recalan en el RO15 y AA17 por su mayor rendimiento “a finish”.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 23.11.2014

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