LOS BONOS AVANZAN CON CALMA

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Nuevamente la autoridad monetaria volvió a mantener sin cambios las tasas de interés de las Letras que el Banco Central licita todos los martes. Estos instrumentos son el ancla de referencia de interés del resto de las tasas de interés del mercado y actualmente constituyen la principal inversión de los inversores institucionales (Fondos Comunes de Inversión, Bancos y Compañías de Seguro). Con la tasa estable y el dólar con leves variaciones alrededor de los $ 15 en el mercado mayorista de cambios, el mercado se volvió rápidamente expectante o como se lo denomina en la jerga “en piloto automático”.

Estas situaciones son ideales para hacer modificaciones en la cartera debido al bajo riesgo de quedar descalzado en el corto plazo. Las apuestas de largo plazo son fáciles de concretar, pero a sabiendas que en el corto plazo no tendrán una gratificación inmediata. Por ello también muchos optan por “hacer tasa” mediante instrumentos cortos para generar rentabilidad mientras esperan acontecimientos para definirse en qué instrumentos posicionarse. Actualmente la colocación primaria de Letras del Banco Central –Lebacs- para las inversiones en pesos y Letras del Tesoro –Letes- para las inversiones en dólares son las mejores alternativas para aprovechar tasas del 30% en pesos y 3,5% en dólares a corto plazo. Las Lebacs son licitadas todos los martes mientras, que con las Letes la licitación es esporádica, a un ritmo de dos colocaciones por mes aproximadamente, y pueden ser pagadas en dólares o en pesos al tipo de cambio mayorista promedio.

Fuera de estos instrumentos cortos de buena tasa y bajo riesgo, los inversores tienen la posibilidad de posicionarse más a largo plazo, con rendimientos más exiguos en el corto plazo pero con mayores beneficios si Argentina logra efectivamente adentrarse en un camino de inflación y tasas descendentes. Por el lado de las inversiones en pesos, los títulos más largos de la curva CER mantienen márgenes de rendimiento atractivos de 4% anual sobre la inflación que publica el INDEC. Un sendero de estabilización de tasas de inflación debería achicar el margen, generando una buena apreciación en los instrumentos largos, en especial el PARP y CUAP.

Para los que quieren mantener cobertura en dólares, la apuesta por una normalización de la inflación y de las cuentas públicas se reflejaría en la baja del riesgo país a nivel internacional. En este caso, los bonos con mayor potencial de apreciación son los pares (PARY y PARA), seguido por los Discounts (DICA y DICY) y el provincial BPLD. Habiendo regularizado la situación con los fondos buitre, los bonos con legislación Nueva York deberían tener una velocidad de apreciación más alta por la mayor liquidez que poseen en el plano internacional. Ambas estrategias poseen un riesgo asociado a la incapacidad que pueda tener el gobierno de arribar a un 2017 estabilizado (inflación y déficit fiscal en descenso). Los inversores más conservadores tienen la posibilidad de las inversiones más cortas para “hacer tasa”.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 31.7.2016

5.079 comentarios

  1. Histórico

    Y el dólar vale lo mismo que hace un año con una inflación del 45% anual?
    Esto se está pareciendo a la convertibilidad. Que terminó muy mal.
    El dólar se mantiene artificialmente bajo por el masivo ingreso de dólares por el endeudamiento con emisión de bonos en dólares tanto a nivel nacional como provincial y empresas del sector privado.
    Es pescado decir la verdad? Porqué se oculta este tema entre la mayoría de los analistas económicos y políticos?

  2. Luis

    El discurso del Presidente Mauricio Macri en la Rural fue una «confirmación» de mi anticipo de la semana anterior.
    Una cartera bursátil ideal es la siguiente:
    Cresud: 30%
    Casado: 70%
    Con la recesión del último trimestre y siendo el sector agropecuario el único trabajando a pleno, el campo se transforma en la gran estrella del país y obviamente de la Bolsa.
    Dentro del rubro, se destacan ampliamente las dos arriba mencionadas por ser favorecidas además con el blanqueo de capitales que permitirá la readecuación del valor de los campos luego de una década de depresión.
    Cresud subió en el año el 45%. Casado el 60%.
    Tienen un atraso histórico.
    Cresud subirá.
    Casado volará.

  3. Histórico

    Barandista, tengo entendido que los balances de CADO se confeccionan de acuerdo a la legislación argentina ya que si bien sus activos están en Paragusy su domicilio legal es en nuestro país.
    De hecho su capital social es en pesos argentinos.

  4. Cristaldo

    Exacto Barandista. Hay mucha confusión con respecto a Casado. La perspectiva enorme de la ganadería está en nuestro país. Los negocios de Paraguay no cambian. Por eso si influirá notablemente en I.Juramento que desarrolla sus actividades en el NOA argentino.

  5. Yo coincido en Inv Juramento. Como las hectareas de campo son baratas en Paraguay, la mayoria de las grandes eztensiiones de campo han sido compradas por los brasilenos. Por eso hay mucha calentura en paraguay.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    Tengo Bma, Bpat, Brio, Bfrances y quiero agregar Ggal, que tengo que comprar si o si Ggal hay que tener, es un grupo de lpm, no falla nunca.A mi el que me reporto siempre ganancia es Bpat, no falla.

    Nos vemos , Javier

  7. offer950

    Una pregunta de bonos, si alguien la tiene clara… es conveniente arbitrar desde AY24 a un bono más largo, como DICA, teniendo en cuenta que la TIR del AY24 bajó y es de alrededor del 5%, (con consecuente suba de precio) y en DICA es del 7%. Pero teniendo también en cuenta que lo compré el año pasado y la TIR era mucho más alta en el momento que lo compré… conviene arbitrar o quedarse con lo comprado teniendo en cuenta la TIR del momento de compra, supongamos 8% pero no lo recuerdo exacto.

  8. Histórico

    Los bonos de larga duración como los Discount (DICA, DICY, etc) y los Par ( PARA, PARY, PAY0) conviene comprarlos si uno piensa que va a bajar el riesgo país y entonces van a subir sus paridades.
    A la inversa si aumenta el riesgo país.
    Los de más corta duración como el AY24 tienen menos volatilidad.

  9. Gordon Gekko

    Buen día. Una pregunta.

    Alguien tiene información de la empresa MORIXE? Veo que hay muy poca data y es una empresa relacioanda con el agro.

    Muchas gracias,

  10. Agromaf

    Coincido con MORIXE aunque creo que mucho mas atrazada se encuentra CRESUD que ya debería estar a $130 comparado con lo que subió AGRO en el mismo periodo y como dijo MACRI en la rural ya le Saco el pie encima para frenarla. Así que vuela en cualquier momento!!

  11. ELIO

    Agromaf, coincido bastante en tu apreciación con respecto a CRES, aunque a veces lo racional no se hace realidad en el mercado como debería ser, quizá esta empresa ya dio el primer paso o señal de que puede cambiar su desempeño de años anteriores, que es subir al panel líder.

    El fantasma del manipuleo por parte de su grupo controlante, que lo escuche varias veces y de gente que conoce del tema, incluyendo al maestro Tavares, es la gran deuda que tiene con el mercado y es por eso que en mi caso no le di todo el crédito que merece por fundamentos, que si bien sus balances no venían bien, nadie puede dura de su potencial y atraso.
    Pero reconozco que en algún momento no me faltó ganas de llevar a un 50% de la cartera en ella, y yo rara vez llego a tener mas del 15% de una sola empresa.

    Si bien hasta hace no tanto llegó a ser la mayor tenencia, no superando el 12% del portafolio, pero luego de recorrer un buen porcentaje de suba, decidí asegurarme una buena ganancia vendiendo la mitad, porque bajó mucho el interés inicial que se veía y para aprovechar otras tendencias.

    Confío en que es posible que sea una de las mas favorecidas, o al menos debería serlo en este nuevo driver comienza con el tema del blanqueo, por lo que la pienso seguir de cerca a ver que señales va dando en el mercado. El atraso es evidente, pero estuvo clavada entre $13 y $16 por años, aun en fines del año pasado el momento de mayor expectativa de cambio de gobierno. Algo raro había que no la dejaban subir, veremos si eso se termina y la dejan que llegue hasta donde debería.

    • Agromaf

      Gracias maestro por su aporte, Coincido plenamente. Yo todo lo que tenga que ver con el Agro me encanta, vivo de eso y todo lo que gano lo vuelvo a reinvertir en el campo. Es mas antes de fin de mes voy a redoblar la apuesta y con lo que gane de CRESUD desde 14 voy a renovar todo el material agrícola de mi empresa para duplicar la produccion antes de fin de año y al mismo tiempo poner mi granito de arena para otras empresas y pymes relacionadas al campo crezcan y les llegue el derrame de dinero del sector lo mas rápido posible

  12. Pepe Luis

    Vieron? Que porquería COME..
    Comercial viene con Paredón, puro empome. Ojo! Están tratando de involucrar a muchos minoritarios para salir los grandes. No genera ganancias, salvo por revalúos, no va a sacar ADR, no tiene un perfil definido para el inversor extranjero, no paga dividendos, hubieron muchas cosas como la nota trucha que nunca se aclaró, mucho manejo de operadores de opciones, no genera nuevos negocios, ni tiene con qué. Ojo con creer que COME pueda volar.

  13. ELIO

    El Molino MORIXE, fue uno de los grande caídos de la década kk, cuando ya no había trigo debido a las políticas agropecuarias o bien si lo conseguían no dejaban exportar, uno de los grandes problemas que hacían poco rentable estos tipos de industrias, tendría que ser una de las empresas que mas sienta el cambio.
    Las que peor cayeron y por ende una de las que mas ruido hagan cuando se levante, o mayor fluctuación en el mercado.
    Todavía es una de mis principales 10 en la cartera, porque creo que le queda mucho hilo.

      • daniel

        Morixe esta muy bien tecnificada ..pues cuenta un molino de avanzada que compro hace unos años en B JUarez ..el molino guglielmetti ….cuando se mudo de caballito ..si bien esta endeudada le deben mas de 10 mill el estado en compensaciones de vieja data y no en que estado quedo eso si este gobierno pagara esa deuda…en este momento esta trabajando a full y no le alcanza la capacidad en los silos y tiene que alquilar
        un 20 % de su molienda en otros silos aledaños para almacenar (buen dato)

  14. ELIO

    Que buen dato Daniel no queda otra que pronto se valla notando en los balances. Hoy uno de los pocos verdes.

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