LOS BONOS AL COMPAS DE LAS ELECCIONES

19-03-2015-16-13-52

 

Como se preveía desde un principio, el escenario de elecciones nacionales
trajo consigo un año de fuertes variaciones de precio en los activos
argentinos. Las perspectivas sobre lo que ocurrirá, que en la bolsa es
mucho más importante que lo que ocurre ahora, cambian con mucha facilidad
en tan solo unos meses de diferencia. Durante el primer trimestre del año
los inversores estaban eufóricos con expectativas de un cambio radical de
políticas y de clima de inversión tras los comicios. Luego comenzó el
debate “gradualismo vs. shock” que sostenía que un golpe de timón no era
posible, principalmente por cuestiones políticas. Más tarde, la
radicalización del discurso del precandidato Daniel Scioli y la elección de
Zannini como su compañero de fórmula trajo el temor de una profundización
de políticas actuales. Ahora, el supuesto estancamiento de la imagen de
Scioli (no alcanzaría a definir en primera vuelta) revivió las expectativas
por un cambio de rumbo, sea leve o acentuado.

Los actuales desequilibrios económicos son difíciles de mantener aún si
fuera voluntad del electo mandatario mantener el ritmo de las políticas
públicas. Incluso el actual gobierno nacional esperó hasta después de las
elecciones del 2011 para realizar ajustes y medidas impopulares como el
cepo cambiario o la “sintonía fina” que eliminaría subsidios, algo que
finalmente nunca ocurrió. La actual gestión económica con uno de los
mayores déficits fiscales desde la vuelta de la democracia se sostiene por
una continua emisión de pesos absorbida con deuda (también se ha sumado
deuda en moneda extranjera).

Los títulos más beneficiados han sido los bonos nacionales en dólares, en
especial los de duración más larga como el Par y el Discount. Los títulos
han subido por el doble efecto de suba del dólar y suba del precio en
dólares, algo no tan frecuente de ver. Usualmente, mayor confianza implica
caída del dólar y suba del precio en dólares, mientras que menor confianza
implica lo contrario. Pero los inversores deben estar alertas a los bonos
largos ya que así como las perspectivas de cambio reviven, pueden
acentuarse (darse por más certeras) o bien descartarse, con sus
consecuentes impactos positivos y negativos respectivamente. Para mitigar
un poco la volatilidad, se puede adoptar un título algo más corto como el
Bonar 2024 o un “mix” de Discount (bono largo) y Bonar X (bono corto) que
promedien una duración algo menor. De esa manera se mantiene un buen
rendimiento anual en dólares y se mitiga el riesgo de una caída de precio.

También, en caso de mantenerse las expectativas de cambio, se puede dar un
escenario similar al primer trimestre con los títulos ajustables por CER.
Éstos son demandados principalmente esperando una corrección de las
estadísticas por parte del nuevo gobierno. El mercado tiene recelo, sin
embargo, de que a pesar de ser un cambio positivo y de bajo coste, las
mediciones de inflación continúen digitadas en especial hasta superar
eventuales ajustes iniciales que impacten en precios como una devaluación.
Adicionalmente la suba del dólar relega los bonos en pesos, aunque puede
significar una oportunidad de compra a bajo precio de los mismos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO 19.7.2015

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