LLEGAN LOS SEMESTRALES Y LA BOLSA PIENSA EN UN RAPIDO DEFAULT

 

 

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El mercado bursátil quiere creer en un “default rápido” y actúa en consecuencia. Asume la versión que bancos y empresarios comprarán parte de la deuda de los “holdout” y pedirán un “stay” con el argumento  que beneficia la cotización de sus tenencias.

También asume que el Gobierno al insistir con la idea de no reconocer más que lo aceptado en el canje, tiene fecha de vencimiento el 31.12.14 para no disparar la cláusula Rufo.

Se destaca el semestral de Siderar con una utilidad de  1757,7 millones (813,2 millones en 2013 y 888,2 millones en 3 meses) con capital de 4517 millones y Reservas Facultativas por 10.505 millones. Los bancos cuyas cotizaciones se resintieron por la caída de los títulos públicos se rehabilitaron con buenos balances. Así,  Grupo Financiero Galicia en 6 meses ganó 1524 millones (830,7 millones en 2013) con capital de 1300,2 millones y 4819,4 millones de Reservas Facultativas.

A su vez Banco Macro en igual periodo ganó 1919 millones (1186,3 millones en 3 meses) con capital de 594,5 millones y reserva facultativa de 4929,4 millones. Las empresas energéticas en su mayoría recuperaron posiciones. Bien YPF, Gas Cuyana, que ganaba 4,2 millones en 3 meses, en 6 meses pasó a 14,3 millones; Camuzziperdía 16,8 millones y en 6 meses se redujo a 1,4 millones; Transener perdía 92,8 millones y lo redujo a 4 millones en 6 meses.

En otro orden, se notan fondos internacionales tomando posiciones en papeles del panel general. Este comportamiento se observa en Consultatio, San Miguel, Introductora y Carboclor.

Una nueva OPA está en camino con claro perjuicio para el accionista minoritario. Se trata de Estrada. Las evaluadoras que fijan precio de retiro olvidan que no existe ajuste con inflación y no se realizan revaluación de activos con regularidad. Tarea para la Justicia.

Héctor Tavares, Clarín, IECO, 10.8.2014

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